Analysis: This late into the season, Cardinals' draft position becomes critical factor

A wise musician once penned the lyrics, “When you ain’t got nothing, you’ve got nothing to lose.” Bob Dylan obviously never met the Arizona Cardinals.

Officially eliminated from playoff contention a week ago in Denver, but out of it all reality weeks earlier, the Cardinals had plenty to lose Christmas night at State Farm Stadium against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

A loss would drop Arizona to 4-11 and into last place in the NFC West, a game behind the 5-10 Rams. And that actually wouldn’t be bad news for the Cardinals because a loss would also vault them up from the No. 4 overall pick in next year’s draft to the No. 3 overall pick.

That’s where the 4-11 Broncos would have been slated to pick, but they surrendered it to Seattle as part of the compensation in the offseason trade for quarterback Russell Wilson. An Arizona loss to Tampa Bay, however, would leave the Broncos and Cardinals with the same record, but the Cardinals would at least temporarily have control of the No. 3 pick by virtue of having lost last week to the Broncos.

Considering how awful everything else has been going for this franchise this season, that’s actually some encouraging good news. It’s the silver lining effect.

And thankfully, the Cardinals pulled it off and lost to the Buccaneers in overtime, 19-16, which was actually a win, depending how you look at it. Tom Brady and the Bucs rallied from a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit and won in OT on Ryan Succup’s fourth field goal of the game as Tampa retained its hold on first place in the NFC South.

As for the Cardinals, they fell their way into what amounted to a two-spot swing in what could be a critical shift in terms of draft positioning.

It all depends on who ends up running the Cardinals’ front office and overseeing the draft and free agency. It could still end up being General Manger Steve Keim, although recent reports have been suggesting his medical leave of absence will become a permanent departure at some point. It could end up being one of both of his interim replacements, Quentin Harris and/or Adrian Wilson. It might be an outsider with a fresh perspective.

Whoever it is, the Cardinals figure to be in prime position to selected one of the top prospects in next April’s draft with two more games looming at the Falcons and 49ers.

Here’s a look at some of the hits and misses from Sunday’s final home game of the year:

*The Cardinals closed out the home portion of their season with a dismal 1-8 record at State Farm Stadium and lost each of their final five home games. They’ve also now lost five straight games overall.

*Andy Lee pulled off a brilliantly disguised fake punt, throwing a 4-yard completion to linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill for a clutch first down in the first quarter. It didn’t matter, though, because five plays laters, quarterback Trace McSorey fumbled the football away to the Buccaneers.

*Speaking of McSorley, who was making his first NFL start, the third stringer just couldn’t get the offense going. He was 10 of 21 for just 79 yards in the first half and a big part of the problem was he couldn’t make the throws to his two best wide receivers. DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown were targeted a combined eight times in the first half and didn’t catch a single pass.

*On the plus side, Tom Brady wasn’t really any better than McSorley. The 45-year was held to just 87 passing yards in the first half and one of his throws to Mike Evans was intercepted by cornerback Marco Wilson and returned 37 yards. That set up Matt Prater’s second field goal from beyond 50 yards and his 53-yarder tied the score at 6 near the end of the first half.

*Wilson, who missed last week’s game with a stinger, picked off Brady again on another throw to Evans with 3:08 left in the third quarter. It ended a probable Tampa scoring drive and it gave the Cardinals a chance to really take some momentum.

*Thanks to a 47-yard bomb from McSorley to Brown down the left sideline five plays later, it happened. Brown’s first reception of the game, which tied for the longest pass play by the Cardinals in 2022, brought the ball to the Bucs’ 20-yard line. All Arizona could get out of it though, was another field goal by Prater, this time from 39 yards. But a minute into the fourth quarter, the Cardinals were winning 9-6.

*Pharoh Cooper’s 28-yard punt return for the Cardinals helped set up another score and this time it was a touchdown, as running back James Conner ran left for 22 yards and into the end zone. Arizona was now up 16-6 with 10:47 to play. But would that be enough to do it?

*Brady brought the Bucs back right away, starting with a 44-yard connection down the left sideline to Leonard Fournette. Six plays later, Brady hit Rachaad White in the left corner for a 3-yard touchdown. Tampa now trailed 16-13 with 8:03 remaining.

*A sloppy reaction by Cardinals rookie running back Keaontay Ingram on a pitch from McSorley resulted in a fumble, which was recovered on the spot by William Gholston. The Buccaneers tied it up at 16 on Ryan Succup’s third field goal of the game with 2:27 left in regulation.

*Arizona had two more possessions to try for a win, but the first ended with a punt and the second with McSorley’s second interception on a desperate heave down the field as time expired.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Cardinals insider Bob McManaman breaks down what was at stake Sunday