Analysis: Best matchups, toughest draws for the Shore in the high school football playoffs
The second season for high school football is upon us.
Twenty-three Shore Conference teams, led by defending Group 5 champion Toms River North, were seeded into the NJSIAA public school playoffs Sunday morning.
More: Here are the 2023 NJ high school football playoff brackets
It is the second season the NJSIAA will play out to overall group champions. The public school playoffs had been played out to just sectional champions from 1974-2021, with the exception of 2020 when the playoffs were not held due to the pandemic.
Toms River North (Central Group 5), Point Pleasant Borough (Central Group 2) and Rumson-Fair Haven (South Group 2) are top seeds.
The Shore's two unbeaten teams - Brick Memorial and Holmdel - are No. 2 seeds in Central Group 4 and Central Group 3 respectively.
There are four all-Shore matchups: Matawan at Holmdel in Central Group 3; Long Branch at Jackson Memorial in Central Group 4; Toms River South at Colts Neck in South Group 4 and Southern at Toms River North in Central Group 5.
Six Shore Conference teams with under .500 records qualified. They are: Matawan (4-5), Middletown South (3-4), Howell (3-5), Southern (3-6), Wall (2-6) and Raritan (2-6).
Wall benefitted from getting two Non-Public multipliers. It played Red Bank Catholic and Donovan Catholic in Shore Conference American Division games.
Raritan's win over 4-4 Group 4 Manalapan on Sept. 22 helped it qualify. The Rockets lost four straight after that win.
Southern's win over 5-3 Group 4 Middletown North on Sept. 22 went a long way toward it qualifying. The Rams lost four straight after the Middletown North win.
Teams had to have a minimum of two wins in order to qualify.
The public school playoffs begin Friday night. The five NJSIAA state championship games for public schools will be played Sunday, Nov. 26 and Wednesday, Nov. 29 at Rutgers' SHI Stadium. The two state championship games for non-public schools will be played Tuesday, Nov. 28 at MetLife Stadium.
Non-public teams play an extra week of the regular season, with playoffs beginning on Friday, Nov. 3. The non-public brackets will be seeded by a committee on Oct. 29 after all regular-season games are completed.
Here is an a brief analysis of each of the public school sections Shore Conference teams are in, followed by predictions for each of those sections.
More: Shore Conference football Top 20: 2 teams make significant moves as the playoffs approach
More: Who are the standouts for Week 8 of Shore Conference football? Check them out.
Central, Group 1
(8) Audubon at (1) Schalick
(5) Clayton at (4) Shore
(6) Keyport at (3) Glassboro
(7) Salem at (2) South Hunterdon
ANALYSIS: This section appears wide open even though Schalick is 9-0. Two of Schalick's wins are by forfeit.
Keyport and Shore, who have combined for 13 sectional championships, both have legitimate chances here.
Keyport has one of the best players in the Shore in senior quarterback Nazir Treadwell. Shore has played a schedule of consisting of four Group 3 schools. The Blue Devils went 2-2 against those teams.
The Pick: Let's take a shot and do this: Keyport over Shore.
Central, Group 2
(8) Spotswood at (1) Point Pleasant Boro
(5) Cinnaminson at (4) New Providence
(6) Johnson at (3) Pleasantville
(7) Monmouth at (2) Willingboro
ANALYSIS: Last season, Point Pleasant Boro was unbeaten and the top seed in South Group 2 and got knocked off by Willingboro in the sectional semifinal.
This season, the Panthers (7-1) are in the same bracket as the Chimeras (7-2) again.
Point Boro's triple-option offense, led by senior quarterback Matt Oliphant and senior running back Jake Croce, can be tough to stop when it is clicking. Its defense has to come up big for it to win the overall Group 2 championship.
The Pick: Point Pleasant Boro over Willingboro.
South, Group 2
(8) Delaware Valley at (1) Rumson-Fair Haven
(5) Haddon Heights at (4) Oakcrest
(6) Middle Township at (3) Gloucester City
(7) Raritan at (2) Haddonfield
ANALYSIS: It is Rumson-Fair Haven's time of the season. The Bulldogs, last year's Group 2 finalist, have won seven sectional championships - all since 2010. They have been in a sectional championship 11 of the last 12 seasons the playoffs have been contested.
Rumson-Fair Haven's 4-4 record is deceiving. Its defeats came to Red Bank Catholic, Donovan Catholic, Toms River North and Point Pleasant Boro - the No. 1, 2, 3 and 6-ranked teams in the Asbury Park Press Shore Conference Top 20.
The Pick: Rumson-Fair Haven over Haddonfield. A rematch with Point Boro looms in the state semifinal.
Central, Group 3
(8) Robbinsville at (1) Timber Creek
(5) Wall at (4) Cedar Creek
(6) Carteret at (3) Camden
(7) Matawan at (2) Holmdel
ANALYSIS: Holmdel's consecutive game shutout streak of six will be put to the test right away against a Matawan team that has talent in the skill positions. Unbeaten Timber Creek and talented Camden appear to be the teams to beat.
The Pick: Camden over Timber Creek.
South, Group 3
(8) Burlington Township at (1) Delsea
(5) Somerville at (4) Manasquan
(6) Allentown at (3) Seneca
(7) Highland at (2) Eastside (Camden)
ANALYSIS: Manasquan's first-round game against Somerville is a renewal of an old Central Group 2 rivalry. Those two teams have combined for 20 sectionals - a Shore Conference-record 12 by Manasquan.
Delsea (7-1), the Group 3 runner-up last season, is the solid favorite, with its ground-eating offense.
The Pick: Delsea over Eastside (Camden).
North 2, Group 4
(8) Colonia at (1) Roxbury
(5) Middletown North at (4) Irvington
(6) Sayreville at (3) Montgomery
(7) Wayne Valley at (2) Mount Olive
ANALYSIS: Middletown North (5-3), which has won its last three, gets a tough draw in a talented Irvington team on the road.
Roxbury (9-0) and Mount Olive (8-1) are the teams to beat. Roxbury won the regular season meeting between the two 10-7.
The Pick: Mount Olive over Roxbury.
Central, Group 4
(8) Pennsauken at (1) Winslow
(5) Ocean City at (4) Hammonton
(6) Long Branch at (3) Jackson Memorial
(7) Moorestown at (2) Brick Memorial
ANALYSIS: The three Shore Conference teams here appear to have gotten a break with defending Group 4 state champion Millville and defending sectional champion Mainland both in the South bracket.
However, Winslow (7-2) is very talented. Its two defeats are by a combined five points to Cherokee and Washington Township - the No. 1 seed in South 5 and 2 seed in Central 5 respectively.
If Brick Memorial, which had its first unbeaten regular season, can win its first-round game, an all-Shore semifinal will be assured. Brick Memorial and Jackson Memorial have had classic playoff games in the past, including the unforgettable 2005 Central 5 final, won by Jackson Memorial 30-28 on the last play of the game.
The Pick: Winslow over Jackson Memorial.
South, Group 4
(8) Northern Burlington at (1) Millville
(5) Shawnee at (4) Middletown South
(6) Toms River South at (3) Colts Neck
(7) Manalapan at (2) Mainland
ANALYSIS: The four Shore Conference teams all are in tough here with the presence of both Millville (7-1) and Mainland (9-0).
Middletown South (3-4), defeated in sectional finals the last two seasons, has an intriguing first-round game with Shawnee (4-5). The teams have combined for 19 sectional championships - 10 by Middletown South. Middletown South's defeats are to Red Bank Catholic, Donovan Catholic, Toms River North and Rumson-Fair Haven - the No. 1, 2, 3 and 7-ranked teams in the Shore.
The Toms River South-Colts Neck game is interesting. Toms River South (6-2) won its first Shore Conference divisional title since 2002. Colts Neck (5-3) shared the Colonial Division title with Point Pleasant Boro and has one of the Shore's best running backs in senior Chris Scully.
The Pick: Millville over Mainland.
Central, Group 5
(8) Southern at (1) Toms River North
(5) Freehold Township at (4) North Brunswick
(6) Lenape at (3) Rancocas Valley
(7) Atlantic City at (2) Washington Township
ANALYSIS: Toms River North (7-2) has had an interesting regular season. It has a win over Millville and defeats to Donovan Catholic (7-1) and the dramatic overtime defeat to Red Bank Catholic (7-1). Standout senior quarterback/defensive back and Stanford University recruit Micah Ford has also missed three games and the final three-plus quarters and overtime of the Red Bank Catholic game with injuries.
Junior T.J. Valerio has played better each week when Ford has been out of the lineup and played very well against Red Bank Catholic.
The Mariners are still a major contender in Group 5.
Washington Township (7-2) did give Toms River North its closest-game score-wise last season in a 28-21 defeat.
The Pick: Toms River North over Washington Township.
South, Group 5
(8) West Windsor-Plainsboro at (1) Cherokee
(5) Kingsway at (4) Hunterdon Central
(6) South Brunswick at (3) Marlboro
(7) Howell at (2) Hillsborough
ANALYSIS: Marlboro (6-2) won a playoff game last season for the first time since 1994, with a first-round win over Washington Township.
The Mustangs allowed just 37 points in their first six games - all wins. However, they have allowed 52 in the last two.
Cherokee (6-2), which has won 11 sectional championships, has played a tough schedule. Its defeats are to a solid St. Augustine team and Millville.
The Pick: Cherokee over Hillsborough.
This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: Shore NJ football state high school playoffs analysis
