Can Alabama make 2023 College Football Playoff? Breaking down Crimson Tide's path to CFP
After Alabama's early-season loss to Texas and struggles against USF, many pushed the Crimson Tide to the back of the College Football Playoff race. But big wins over No. 9 Ole Miss (8-1, 5-1 in SEC play), No. 13 Tennessee (7-2, 3-2) and No. 19 LSU (6-3, 4-2), have put the Crimson Tide is right back in the race.
With one loss already on the schedule, there's no margin for error. But Nick Saban and Co. have already played what appears to be the toughest opponents of their regular-season schedule. That said, two major obstacles standing in Alabama's way into the Playoff. The first of those is No. 2 Georgia, who presumably would meet the Tide in the SEC championship game.
The other, of course, is No. 7 Texas. The Longhorns' head-to-head road victory over Saban's Crimson Tide team in Week 2 makes it possible that Alabama could run the table, beat Georgia in the SEC title game and still miss the College Football Playoff. The most likely scenario for that to happen is if Texas wins out and claims the Big 12 while Washington, Florida State and one of Michigan or Ohio State finish the season undefeated.
The playoff has no official tiebreaker scenario like the conference standings do, but let's break down potential scenarios for Alabama:
Alabama's path to the 2023 College Football Playoff
Alabama wins out
In order for the Crimson Tide to get in, this is a given. It has to win the SEC. Non-conference champions have gotten into the playoff before, including Alabama in 2017, but no two loss team has ever made the CFP. That means the Crimson Tide must beat Kentucky (6-3, 3-3), Chattanooga (7-3, 6-2 SoCon) and Auburn (5-4, 2-4)
Georgia is the most likely opponent in that game if the Crimson Tide advances, but Tennessee and Missouri also have an outside chance of making Atlanta. No SEC champion has ever been left out of the playoff, so Alabama at least will have an argument to make the playoff if it wins the title game.
Texas loses
This isn't a necessity, per se, for Alabama to make the playoff. A Texas loss would, however, remove the one factor that keeps Alabama from controllings its CFP destiny. The Longhorns finish their regular season at TCU, at Iowa State and vs. Texas Tech (combined 13-14 record). If they win out over those teams, they are most likely to play No. 15 Oklahoma State (7-2, 5-1 Big 12) in the conference title game.
A loss in any of those games would give Texas its second loss of the season, precluding it from the CFP (again, no two-loss team has ever made it). Should that scenario happen, Alabama would have the opportunity to make the CFP even if Michigan/Ohio State, Washington and Florida State all went undefeated and won their respective conference title games.
A 12-1 SEC champion with a win over two-time defending champion Georgia would be a lock for the CFP ... in the right circumstances.
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Florida State or Washington lose
One of Michigan and Ohio State is guaranteed to lose a game by virtue of their season-ending rivalry matchup. That will remove one of those teams from Alabama's path, but that won't be enough if the remaining obstacles are three undefeated Power Five champions and a one-loss, Big 12 champion Texas team with a head-to-head victory over Alabama.
But what if Florida State or Washington (or both) lose? Alabama would have a much better argument over a 12-1 ACC champion FSU, 12-1 Pac-12 champion Washington or 12-1 Pac-12 champion Oregon than Texas. The ACC hasn't made the CFP since the 2020 college football season, and the Pac-12 hasn't made it since 2016. Conversely, the SEC champion has never missed the Playoff.
The Huskies finish their regular season vs. No. 18 Utah, No. 12 Oregon State and Washington State, who have gone a combined 18-9 this season, before the Pac-12 championship. The Seminoles finish against Miami, North Alabama and Florida, who have combined to 14-14 through 10 weeks.
More: Don't expect a post-LSU letdown for Alabama football vs. Kentucky. Here's why
Michigan wins out but is banned
One unlikely scenario that could play out: Michigan beats Ohio State (removing the Buckeyes from Big Ten title contention); the Wolverines go undefeated and win the Big Ten championship; and Jim Harbaugh's team is barred from. the College Football Playoff due to the current investigation into illegal in-person scouting. That would create an opening for Alabama even if Texas wins the Big 12.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Can Alabama make 2023 College Football Playoff? Texas key to CFP hopes
