Air Force at San Jose State: Why The Falcons Will Win

The Falcons and Spartans Face-Off for the 7th Time

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

Can Air Force Start 2-0 in Conference Play?

WEEK 4: Air Force Falcons 3-0 (1-0) vs. San Jose State Spartans 1-3 (0-0)

WHEN: Friday, September 22nd — 8:30 P.M. MT/ 7:30 P.M. PT

WHERE: CEFCU Stadium (San Jose, CA)

WEATHER: A few clouds from time to time. Low near 55F. NNW winds shifting to SSE at 10 to 15 mph.

TV: FS1 (Dan Hellie, Petros Papadakis)

STREAM: FuboTV

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 4-2

WEBSITES: SJSUAthletics.com, the official San Jose State athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): San Jose State | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 9

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 11.3

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS: Air Force 62.95% Win Probability (27.64-22.68)

The fourth week of the college football season features a pretty intriguing matchup in the Mountain West. Air Force will play San Jose State for the first time since 2020. For a quick history lesson, the Spartans defeated the Falcons on their way to being crown Mountain West Conference Champions that year.

They haven’t replicated that level of success since, but Brent Brennan’s squad could be a contender again this year. While the season has gotten off to a rocky start for San Jose State going 1-3, with the losses coming to USC, Oregon State and Toledo; all of whom are expected to compete for championships in their respective conferences.

A 59-3 victory over lesser FCS competition in Cal Poly is still a reminder that this team can be good. Behind one of the most experienced signal callers in all of college football, Chevon Cordiero, the Spartans offense can cause problems for a defense.

So don’t get fooled by the some of the aggregate statistics from the San Jose State Spartans to date. It’s likely more a product of who they have played thus far. They are replacing some studs along that defensive front and weren’t afforded a slow acclimation to competition.

Very few Conference victories come easy. Don’t expect them to roll out the red carpet at CEFCU Stadium on Friday.

HERE’S HOW THE FALCONS CAN CONQUER THE SPARTANS

Last year saw Air Force feature one of the Academy’s most dominant defenses. They were statistically the best in the nation in multiple categories. Coach Knorr’s group has continued to carry that play into the 2023 season, despite significant injury losses, they are still one of the country’s best defensive units.

That same defense is going to have to try and keep a dynamic quarterback in check if they want to win this game. Bo Richter’s play on the edge has been outstanding for the Flacons, and P.J. Ramsey along the defensive line has been in the opposing backfield as much as anyone. These two should play  key roles in limiting Cordiero’s damage. He’s a creative playmaker that can keep plays alive and pick up first downs with his mobility. Ramsey and Richter have proven to be game wreckers early on this year and should limit the Spartans ability to make big plays.

San Jose State has gotten somewhat surprising production out of their running backs this season, featuring two guys averaging better than five yards per carry and catch out of the backfield in Quali Conley and Kairee Robinson. Conley in particular averages almost seven yards per carry (6.7) on the season. Continued brilliant play from Alec Mock can help neutralize a lot of their impact. His partner in the linebacking corp, Jonathan Youngblood is also playing at a high level, so the front seven for Air Force has proven formidable.

There is no lack of content if you want to focus on the Air Force defense. What can make the Falcons a real problem for opponents is their offense  matching the play of their defense. The two units perfectly complement one another, with a greedy, time-consuming offense that limits possessions for the other team. And a stingy defense that isn’t giving up much with those limited possessions. Last week saw total domination of a team that seemingly has Air Force’s number recently, and a major reason why is the play of the offense.

The Falcons are getting very multiple running the ball, starting with a stable of fullbacks that are starting wear teams out in Owen Burk, Dylan Carson and Emanuel Michel. Big play potential is being provided by John Lee Eldridge II, earning an insane 8.9 yards per carry on the season.

A relentless rushing attack from Air Force with a host of ball carriers looks to be too much for a defense that is surrendering 170 yards per game on the ground. I would expect improvement on both sides of the ball from San Jose State, but even a decent showing from the defense would likely look like 24 points or better from the Falcons. This is important to note because the Air Force defense is not going to afford yards, much less points very easily. If you don’t know, take a look back at how long it’s been since the Falcons have surrendered 24 points to an opponent, it’s been a while.

Look for Richter, Taylor, Mock and crew to make things difficult for a Spartans team that really needs to start stringing wins together. Short of a disaster affair of turnovers by the Falcons, I’d expect the game to be close until the end as Air Force simply wears down San Jose State.

Air Force 28 – San Jose State 20

Story originally appeared on Mountain West Wire