After Bills dominate Dolphins, Josh Allen replaces Tua Tagovailoa as MVP favorite

All last week, the Miami Dolphins were the talk of the NFL after hanging 70 points on the Denver Broncos. That included Tua Tagovailoa increasing his lead as the favorite in the NFL MVP odds.

And the whole time, we were gushing about the wrong AFC East team.

The Buffalo Bills made a statement Sunday. They beat the Dolphins 48-20. It was the type of blowout that will slow down the Dolphins' hype.

It also will reignite some Bills hype, including their quarterback Josh Allen replacing Tagovailoa as the MVP favorite.

Josh Allen takes over as MVP favorite

Allen didn't just take over the favorite spot from Tagovailoa in the MVP odds — he has a fairly sizable lead for this early in the season.

Here are the current odds at BetMGM:
• Josh Allen +325
• Patrick Mahomes +500
• Tua Tagovailoa +500
• Jalen Hurts +800

All other players have 10-to-1 or longer odds for MVP.

It's a little surprising the odds swung so much on one game. Tagovailoa was off to a fantastic start to the season, and one rough game against a tough Bills defense doesn't erase everything else. Allen has been hot the past few weeks but he still had a bad four-turnover game in a Week 1 loss to the New York Jets.

But this is the NFL. We love to overreact to what happened last, and the last thing we saw was Allen and the Bills destroying Tagovailoa and the Dolphins.

Tua Tagovailoa still off to a great start

Tagovailoa still leads the NFL in passing yards and yards per attempt, and is second to only Brock Purdy in passer rating. Allen has a better completion percentage and adds more value on the ground than Tagovailoa, but Tagovailoa has better numbers in most other major categories.

That might matter down the road, but at the moment Allen is next up. And given how much of the Bills offense he controls, it's justified to make him the favorite. By the time the actual voting happens, his bad Week 1 game will feel like it happened a decade ago.

There will be plenty of changes in the odds. Even though non-quarterbacks don't win anymore, at some point people will notice what Christian McCaffrey is doing for the San Francisco 49ers. Whichever quarterback gets hot over the rest of October will become part of the discussion.

But for now, Allen has the lead, at least in the view of the betting world.