AFC wild-card preview: Steelers, without T.J. Watt, try to keep up with Bills
The Pittsburgh Steelers got in the playoffs, but it was costly.
In the Steelers' regular-season finale, a win over the Baltimore Ravens that helped Pittsburgh get the No. 7 seed in the AFC, outside linebacker T.J. Watt went down with a knee injury. He was hit on the side by a teammate and sprained his MCL. That's a better outcome than a torn ACL, but it will still keep him out this week. Not many NFL players, including quarterbacks, are more impactful to their teams than Watt.
The Steelers get a tough matchup on top of it, against a Buffalo Bills team that won five in a row to take the AFC East and get the No. 2 seed.
Steelers (10-7) at Bills (11-6)
Monday, 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Betting line: Bills -10, total of 36.5
Super Bowl odds: Steelers +12500, Bills +650
Why we're watching
The Bills were a long shot to make the playoffs weeks ago. Everyone knew they had the talent to win a Super Bowl, but they put themselves in a big hole with some bad losses.
Then the Bills dragged themselves back into the playoff field and won a division title.
The Bills went 5-0 after their bye, including wins over the Chiefs, Cowboys and Dolphins. Just getting in the playoffs was far from guaranteed weeks ago and getting the No. 2 seed in the AFC is a great bonus. The Bills have an exciting quarterback in Josh Allen (sometimes that excitement includes some horrifying risks that lead to turnovers), a defense that has adjusted through some major injuries and other big-time players, like Stefon Diggs and emerging running back James Cook.
The Bills are probably the best team playing this weekend (the Dallas Cowboys might disagree with that). Now that they're in the playoffs, they can have reasonable dreams of making a Super Bowl.
Wild card of this wild card
Steelers receiver George Pickens has been in the headlines a lot — and not always for his play. His professionalism and effort were questioned, but his talent has never been in doubt. When the Steelers switched to Mason Rudolph at quarterback, Pickens had games with 191 and 135 yards in wins. In Week 18 Pickens didn't get a single target in heavy rains, but at least he didn't complain about it after the win.
Pickens is the one offensive player for the Steelers who could make the big play or two to keep them in the game and maybe have them hoping for an upset. His big games are also a little hard to predict, and it won't be easy for the Steelers to feature him if it's as windy as feared.
Person we'll likely praise after the victory
Stefon Diggs has had a bit of a weird season. It started hot, with five 100-yard outings in Buffalo's first six games. He hasn't had a 100-yard game since. Diggs has remained a big part of the offense, but he has had some quiet games. Diggs hasn't scored a touchdown in five straight games.
Despite the Bills' offense being spread around more since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator following the firing of Ken Dorsey, Diggs is still the Bills' best skill-position player and it's easy to see him blowing up in the playoffs.
Person we'll likely second-guess after the loss
It's still hard to get behind the idea of "Mason Rudolph, playoff starting quarterback." But Rudolph played very well in Pittsburgh's final three games after the Steelers turned to him. Rudolph has the ability to change the entire narrative surrounding him with a good game in an upset win over the Bills. That would legitimize the last three weeks, when he was a big part of the Steelers making the playoffs.
A Steelers loss with a poor game from Rudolph, even in blustery conditions, wouldn't necessarily be put on Rudolph's shoulders, but it wouldn't be a surprise to many people either.
