Advanced Stats: Cowboys look to avoid 0-2 start in a battle with the Bengals.
The 2022 season got off to a rough start for the Dallas Cowboys, with a 19-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football. To add salt to the wound, the Cowboys suffered injuries to Dak Prescott, Jayron Kearse, Connor McGovern and Tarell Basham that will require each player to miss Week 2.
The Cowboys are turning to veteran backup Cooper Rush at quarterback as they attempt to avoid an 0-2 start. In the seven seasons the Cowboys have started 0-2, they have only finished the season with a winning record one time, 1993. The other six seasons resulted in the Cowboys winning six games or less.
The Cowboys will attempt to bounce back against the 0-1 Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals lost their season-opener, 23-20, in an overtime thriller vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers.
As fans turn the page, here’s a review of the advanced stats to see what the numbers say.
“We’re onto Cincinnati.”- Bill Belichick
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) - Football Outsiders
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DVOA is a metric which measures the success of each play as compared to league average using percentage points above or below average. The metric measures down, distance, field location, quarter and quality of opponent.
With DVOA, teams are looking for a higher percentage offensively and a lower percentage defensively. On offense and special teams, the objective is to perform above league average while defenses are looking to force their opponents to perform below league average.
Information via Football Outsiders.
DVOA Offense
As one would expect following a poor performance that resulted in just three points, the Cowboys offense did not reflect favorably in DVOA this past week.
The Bengals offense gained more yards, had less penalties and scored more points. However, they ranked just two spots higher in total offensive DVOA. How does this happen? Four interceptions, a fumble and seven sacks.
The Cowboys finished last in passing DVOA with a -50% and last in total offense DVOA at -49%. They were able to edge the Bengals out in rushing DVOA, finishing 14th with a -6.1%.
The Bengals win offensive DVOA with a 2-1 lead.
Offensive Advantage: Bengals
DVOA Defense
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As a brief reminder, while we are looking for positive DVOA’s on offense, a negative DVOA is better on defense.
The Bengals win the defensive DVOA edge with a clean sweep in all categories.
The Bengals defense were up for the challenge in week one, holding the Steelers to just 75 yards rushing, 3.4 ypc. They ranked fifth in rushing DVOA at -40.9%.
The Cowboys finished three spots behind the Bengals in passing DVOA at 14th but ranked nine spots lower in total defensive DVOA.
Defensive Advantage: Bengals
Overall Advantage: Bengals (Bengals lead 5 of the 6 categories)
Expected Points Added and Success Rate
EPA measures the impact a play has on the likelihood of scoring. With EPA, yardage, field position, and down and distance all weigh in on what the expected net points would be for the situation. As an example, a first and goal at the one-yard line would represent a higher EP-Expected Points than a third and 10 on your own 20 yard line.
EPA is the difference between the Expected Points (EP) at the beginning of the play compared to the end of the play. It measures the plays impact on the score of the game.
Success rate is a measure of how often teams get 40% of the needed yards on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down and 100% on third down or fourth down.
EPA figures gathered by rbsdm.
EPA: Offense
Sep 11, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals tight end Hayden Hurst (88) catches a pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers in overtime at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports
Similar to DVOA, the Bengals also lead the way in EPA per play, albeit at rather close margins.
Both team ranked in the bottom third of the league in EPA/play, Rushing EPA/play and Success Rate. The Bengals ranked 27th in EPA/Play at -.174 while the Cowboys ranked 32nd at -.337 EPA/Play.
The lone category that the Cowboys led was in Rushing EPA/Play with a slight edge finishing two spots higher. Ezekiel Elliott had an individual EPA of 1.2 while Joe Mixon had a -6.1.
Success rate was a slight advantage for the Bengals offense week 1 with both teams finishing in the bottom third.
Offensive Advantage: Bengals ( 3 to 1 edge)
EPA: Defense
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 11: Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers calls a play against the Dallas Cowboys during the second quarter at AT&T Stadium on September 11, 2022 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
While the Cowboys defense certainly played better than their offense, the Bengals again lead in each of the four categories.
Ranking 15th in both EPA/Play and Passing EPA/Play, the Cowboys presented a formidable defense but the Bengals ranked higher in each category.
The biggest variances came in rushing EPA/Play and Success Rate. After surrendering 152 rushing yards at a rate of 4.6ypc, the Cowboys rushing defense produced -.007 EPA/Rush while the Bengals finished 10th overall at -.186 EPA/Rush The Cowboys allowed a success rate of 50% to the Buccaneers, the 26th highest rate in week one while the Bengals allowed a success rate of 34.4% to the Steelers.
Defensive Advantage:Bengals
Overall Advantage: Bengals ( Winners of 7 of 8 EPA categories)
Toxic Differential:Toxicity
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Toxic differential (also referred to as Toxicity) is a statistic created by then Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator Brian Billick. Billick realized that adding the number of explosive plays an offense generates and subtracting the number of explosive plays a defense allows, then adding the turnover margin, was a key barometer of team success.
Under Billick’s formula, explosive plays are defined as passing plays over 20 yards and rushing plays over 10 yards. These figures were gathered by Sharp Football Stats.
Toxic Differential: Offense
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 11: Ezekiel Elliott #21 of the Dallas Cowboys carries the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half at AT&T Stadium on September 11, 2022 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
The Bengals and Cowboys entered the season with strong skill players on the offensive side of the ball in Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, CeeDee Lamb, Jamar Chase, Ezekiel Elliott and Joe Mixon. However, neither team’s offense hit their full capabilities in Week 1 with the Cowboys suffering injuries, penalties and poor play while the Bengals struggled to protect the football.
The Cowboys’ offense, while expected to take a step back, was only able to produce one explosive play, a 20+ yard reception to Noah Brown. They had another explosive reception to CeeDee Lamb taken away when Lamb was flagged for offensive pass interference.
The Bengals generated six explosive plays but also had five turnovers with four interceptions and one lost fumble from Joe Burrow.
Adding the explosive runs and passes and then subtracting turnovers allows us to determine the offensive toxicity score.
The Bengals take the offensive toxicity edge with a +1.
Offensive Advantage: Bengals
Toxic Differential- Defense
Albert Cesare-USA TODAY Sports
The Cowboys allowed a total of 10 explosive plays to seven for the Bengals. The Bengals allowed one more reception of 20+ yards but allowed four less explosive running plays.
The Cowboys defense produced one takeaway with an interception by safety Donovan Wilson in the second half of the game.
Defensive Advantage: Bengals
Overall Toxicity is determined by subtracting the defensive total from the offensive total.
Cowboys Toxicity: Offense 0 – Defense 9 = Overall Toxicity -9
Bengals Toxicity: Offense 1 – Defense 7= Overall Toxicity -6
Overall Advantage: Bengals
ANY/A
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Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt, or ANY/A, is a formula which incorporates passing yardage, touchdowns, sacks and interceptions into a per-throw average. ANY/A has a direct correlation to scoring points and as such ranks third in win predictability.
As mentioned in the formula, the Cowboys saw an advantage in ANY/A For due to the Bengals allowing seven sacks and four interceptions in week one.
Cowboys QBs ANY/A:
Dak Prescott: 2.45
Cooper Rush: 3.47
Bengals QB ANY/A:
Joe Burrow: 2.65
However, they had a better ANY/A Against allowing just 5.4 yards per attempt.
Neither team finished in the positive week one but the Bengals take a slight edge with -2.75 ANY/A differential.
Advantage: Bengals
Overall Recap
Sam Greene-USA TODAY Sports
Toxicity: Bengals (5 out of 8)
DVOA: Bengals (5 out of 6)
EPA: Bengals (7 out of 8)
ANY/A: Bengals (2 out of 3)
Overall: Bengals (19 of 25 metrics)
As to be expected following a season opening loss where the team scored just three points, the Bengals have a resounding edge in the key advanced statistical categories. While the numbers are a bit jarring to look at, it’s important to remember that this is all based on one week of games and could change drastically after Week 2.
