8 major questions for Oregon Ducks to answer in Pac-12 title game vs. Washington
The entire back-half of the season has seemingly been leading up to this for the Oregon Ducks and Washington Huskies. Ever since that Week 7 thriller in early October gave us one of the best games of the year — a 36-33 Washington win in Seattle — there was hope for most that these two teams would meet again in the Pac-12 Championship Game in Las Vegas.
That meeting has been set, and the eyes of the college football world will descend on Allegiant Stadium for a matchup that will send one team to the College Football Playoff, and potentially crown a Heisman Trophy winner as well.
With a loss to Washington the last time these two played, what needs to change for Oregon this time around? What do they need to do differently, and what questions do they need to answer on Friday night?
We’ve got some that have bubbled to the surface. Here are our biggest questions for Friday and the ensuing Saturday games as well:
How Important Will CB Depth Be?
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Washington’s group of wide receivers is not something that you want to go up against when not at full strength. That seems to be the case this week for the Ducks, though, who will likely be down their starting cornerback Jahlil Florence.
After watching last week’s game from the sideline on crutches, it doesn’t seem like Florence will be healthy enough to see the field this week, though Lanning hasn’t declaratively said that he will be out. Meanwhile, the Ducks have also been without freshman CB Rodrick Pleasant for the past couple of weeks as well.
Going up against a WR group that includes Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Germie Bernard, with a quarterback as dynamic as Michael Penix Jr., being down some of your top cover corners is not ideal. Fortunately for the Ducks, they’ve shown throughout the season to have some pretty solid depth at the position, highlighted by the performance of Dontae Manning last week vs. the Beavers.
We will see how big of a factor that depth ends up being, but it will certainly help if the secondary can get an assist from the Oregon defensive line, which leads us to our next question…
Can DL Get to Penix?
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The best way to alleviate a banged up secondary is to make it so the opposing quarterback doesn’t have time to pick you apart from a clean pocket. That’s where the defensive line comes in.
Oregon’s defensive front has been incredibly impressive this season, ranking 26th in the nation with 32 sacks. Though the numbers don’t always show it, the Ducks have been able to apply pressure successfully over the past several games, routinely knocking a QB off of his spot and impacting the play. That will be of the utmost importance vs. a QB with the precision of Penix, who is among the best passers in the nation when given the opportunity to set his feet and throw. When he’s forced to be on the move, though, his accuracy plummets, and his effectiveness drops.
In order for the Ducks to have success in this game, the defensive line is going to need to lead the charge and make sure that Penix is under duress from the very first snap.
Will Lanning's Aggressiveness Change?
I think it’s fair to say that Dan Lanning saw as much scrutiny as he ever has after the first meeting between these two teams earlier this season. The Ducks went 0-for-3 on 4th down attempts, with Oregon’s young head coach routinely going for the aggressive decision over the conservative one, and each time coming up short.
If Lanning opted for the conservative route even once in that game, the entire result might have changed. But he is someone who has shown to be ultra-aggressive from the moment he stepped foot in Eugene, so it wasn’t a surprise to see him call things the way that he did.
Does that change this week? There will likely be a couple of times when Oregon is faced with a fourth-down decision, and Lanning has to choose to play it safe or go for it once again. In the end, he is human like the rest of us, and you couldn’t blame him for potentially second-guessing the aggressive call after the way things went back in October.
Does he do things differently this time? That’s something that I’m looking forward to finding out.
Can Camden Lewis Step Up?
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The first meeting between these two came down to a missed field goal from Camden Lewis as time expired. While that missed kick was undoubtedly not the sole reason that Oregon lost, it is the lasting memory that most fans have from the game.
Since then, Lewis has continued to struggle, missing six of his last 10 field goals. Though he is the leading scorer in school history, he is going through one of the worst slumps of his career. It will be interesting to see if, and when, he can break out of it. There is a good chance that at some point during this game, Lewis will be asked to put the team on his foot and put a ball through the uprights in a pressure situation. As an experienced veteran who has made a lot of big kicks in his career, I personally have confidence that he will pull through.
I hope that opportunity arises because it is a moment that Lewis deserves. Will he step up and make it? That’s something I can’t wait to see.
Is Vegas Accurate?
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Despite the fact that Washington won the last game between these two by three points, the Oregon Ducks are massive favorites heading into this rematch, with some sportsbooks listing them at -9.5 on the spread this week. Personally, I think that feels a bit high. While I do think that Oregon is a better team at the moment and should be favored to win this game, it can’t be overlooked that the Huskies have not lost a game all season, and routinely found ways to win week after week.
I’m very curious to see if Las Vegas is right on this one. They seem to have a lot of confidence in the Ducks, and their ability to win this one comfortably. I don’t personally agree when it comes to the magnitude, but this wouldn’t be the first time that Vegas knew more than me.
Can Bo Seal Up the Heisman?
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We’ve talked a lot about the Heisman Trophy over the past few weeks, and at this point it’s very clear that the race is down to Oregon QB Bo Nix and LSU QB Jayden Daniels. At the moment, it is neck-and-neck, but Nix has the added bonus of playing in a conference championship game this weekend while Daniels sits at home with three losses on his record.
That gives Nix an opportunity to virtually wrap this thing up with another stellar performance, which is something that we’ve become accustomed to over the past few months. Should the Ducks win, and Nix has another solid game, I wouldn’t be surprised if we wake up on Saturday morning and the Oregon QB becomes the heavy favorite to win the Heisman in the betting markets.
Does the Rushing Attack Come Back to the Forefront?
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Over the past several weeks, Oregon’s rushing attack has seemingly taken a backseat to the passing attack, and understandably so. The string of opponents that the Ducks have played since late October have offered better matchups in the passing game, so it’s not a shock to see that Oregon hasn’t had more than 150 yards and 2 TDs on the ground since Week 10 vs. California.
However, Washington is a team that you can beat on the ground. The Huskies have the No. 40 rushing defense in the nation, but they gave up 204 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns to Bucky Irving and Jordan James up in Seattle. I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Oregon try to go back to that and run the ball up and down the field this weekend down in Las Vegas.
Is it Truly Win and In?
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A lot has been made about the four spots in the College Football Playoff, and which teams control their own destiny — ie. win and get in.
For the most part, everyone seems to think that the Ducks are one of those teams who simply need a win to get into the CFP, and while I mostly agree, I think that there is a 1-2% that the Ducks don’t get in, even if they win.
Say, for instance, that No. 8 Alabama beats No. 1 Georgia on Saturday, while the trio of Florida State, Texas, and Michigan also win. That would give us two guaranteed spots for Michigan and Florida State — both undefeated conference champions, and two spots to split between Oregon, Texas, Georgia, and Alabama — all one-loss teams, with three of them being conference champions.
Is it a lock that the committee chooses Oregon as one of the teams in that group? I don’t think so. While I absolutely believe that the Ducks are deserving, I do see a world where they don’t get in even with a win, though I think it’s highly unlikely.
