5 things to consider when thinking about Oklahoma’s future
Oklahoma fans have experienced a roller coaster for the better part of the last 500 days. There was optimism after the 2020 season about the possibilities for that 2021 team. That optimism was dashed when their on-field performance never came close to the lofty expectations. There was a mid-season QB change involving a pair of former five-star quarterbacks.
After picking up a win over Texas in one of the greatest comebacks of all time, the Sooners’ offense stalled in late-season losses on the road to Baylor and Oklahoma State. The day following that loss to the Cowboys, Lincoln Riley bolted for the University of Southern California after gaslighting an entire fanbase that he wasn’t leaving (for LSU).
In the week that followed, Oklahoma hired Brent Venables. Despite the attrition suffered by the 2022 recruiting class after Riley’s departure, Venables and his staff helped put together a group that was viewed as the No. 8 recruiting class in the cycle.
Offseason expectations were fairly high (quite possibly, too high) as we rolled into the summer. Summer practices offered extreme optimism, as did the first three games.
A confounding loss to Kansas State, a team notorious for how they’ve played Oklahoma as of late, made us take a step back. The next week, Oklahoma barely got off the bus before getting blasted by TCU. The Horned Frogs now look like the favorites to win the Big 12 and possibly find themselves in the College Football Playoff.
Oklahoma lost quarterback Dillon Gabriel in the TCU loss and would be forced to play without him in the Red River Showdown. The Sooners got their bell rung by rivals Texas, losing 49-0. They ran the wildcat offense for the vast majority of the game with multiple scholarship quarterbacks dressed. That felt like rock bottom.
Gabriel returned the following week for homecoming against Kansas. The offense would shine, and the defense made some plays. The Sooners beat Iowa State in a game where Gabriel and the passing game didn’t have to carry the load before dropping their latest contest to Baylor, where the defense couldn’t stop the run.
We sit days away from Oklahoma going on the road to Morgantown to face the West Virginia Mountaineers. Oklahoma is not only 5-4, but their biggest rival appears to be in a better spot going forward as both look ahead to their eventual departure to the SEC.
Looks can be deceiving, and things can change from year to year. With that said, here are five things to consider or reconsider about Oklahoma’s future.
This was always a process
Oct 8, 2022; Dallas, Texas, USA; Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables reacts during the first half against the Texas Longhorns at the Cotton Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
It truly may be hard to comprehend, but Oklahoma wasn’t going to light things up in some undefeated fashion and confidently walk into the College Football Playoff. Sure, projections and preseason predictions may have suggested Oklahoma would be a top-10 team, but the best-case scenario was to win the Big 12 and play in a New Year’s Six bowl.
This roster lost a lot. It’s easy to look at Oregon and TCU and assume because their first-year head coaches are doing fine the circumstances are the same. Context is needed in those discussions.
Cristobal recruited defense extremely well to Oregon, which is exactly the thing Oklahoma lacks the most. Legitimate defensive studs to build a program around. There were multiple five-star and high four-star defenders on that roster when Oregon coach Dan Lanning signed his contract. He and the staff have taken advantage of some great play by Bo Nix, a transfer from Auburn, and a weak Pac-12 conference.
Oklahoma’s decision to hire Brent Venables was about long-term sustainability as they head into the SEC, not some flash in the pan one off-season. Elite programs require time, and elite programs like Oklahoma’s need ample time to reconfigure themselves in the face of adversity.
The recruiting class is good and can get better
April 23, 2022; Norman; Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables speaks to the crowd during the spring game at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Oklahoma’s recruiting class currently sits sixth overall, according to 247Sports team recruiting rankings. That’s without taking into account the likelihood that four-star Colton Vasek flips from Oklahoma to Texas.
Five-star QB Jackson Arnold is firmly a Sooner, and Oklahoma still has five-star EDGE Adepoju Adebawore locked in. Most recruits have confirmed and reaffirmed their commitment to Oklahoma, citing the trust and belief in this coaching staff.
Oklahoma remains in pursuit of multiple five-star recruits, David Hicks and Anthony Hill.
Hill, a five-star linebacker, decommitted from Texas A&M on Monday. Other names like Ashton Sanders, Tausili Akana, and a few others also remain firmly on Oklahoma’s radar. A top-five class is very much a real possibility.
That’s how Oklahoma plans to reshape itself under Brent Venables through the development of these next two or three recruiting classes.
First year coach is having first year coach pains
Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables gestures to the crowd as he arrives before the Red River Showdown college football game between the University of Oklahoma (OU) and Texas at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022. Bryan Terry, The Oklahoman
Brent Venables captured the fanbase’s attention when his hiring was announced. A beloved figure of the Stoops era was coming home.
The on-field results haven’t been the best, but Oklahoma is married to Brent Venables. Oklahoma athletic director Joe Castiglione believes in this man, and the contract plus subsequent commitment of resources to Oklahoma football mean that Venables will get a fair shot to have Oklahoma competing for the playoffs, national titles, and conference championships.
It’s not been perfect, but Venables has taken accountability. The key to making mistakes is learning from them. If Venables can do that, there’s no reason to question his long-term viability.
The other guys haven't been the model of success
Oct 8, 2022; Dallas, Texas, USA; Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables (left) speaks with Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian (right) before the game at the Cotton Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
With news of an Oklahoma commit likely flipping to Texas, chatter began about what Oklahoma was doing. A kid from Austin, Texas, with Texas parents flipping to be a Longhorn isn’t that egregious.
What is egregious is the notion that Texas has some inside track to being an elite program competing with the likes of Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State yearly.
Texas has reeled in top-five recruiting classes for years, and it’s been 12 years since they last played in a national title game or even sniffed one. They’ve never made the College Football Playoff despite more talented rosters than Oklahoma. At least that’s what the narrative has been.
Until the rest of the world sees Texas make that leap, there’s no need to panic.
Sooners don't stay down long
Oklahoma fans cheer during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the Baylor Bears at Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022.
Ou Vs Baylor
Oklahoma has never stayed down for an extended period of time. At least not since the John Blake days, which were three years of nonsense. Since 1999, when Oklahoma went 7-5 in Bob Stoops first season with the program, the Sooners haven’t gone back-to-back seasons with fewer than 10 wins.
They have five seasons since 1999 with fewer than 10 wins, one of which was the COVID year in 2020 when Oklahoma scrapped two of its non-conference games.
This is a program that wins 10 games. That’s the floor for the Sooners over the last two decades. Ultimately, Oklahoma finds ways to bounce back. They always have, and they always will.
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