5 things to care about from Week 9: Dalvin Cook? We're back in on his 2018 season.
So much happens on any given Sunday of the NFL season. It’s hard to keep track of it all. More importantly, it’s quite a lot to decide what we should value as signal and what we should just ignore as noise. In this space, I’ll go through all that I watched in Week 9 and give you the five things I care about coming out of Sunday, along with five things I can’t muster up the emotional energy to care for.
Five things I care about
Dalvin Cook’s 70-yard run
The many weeks of rest were certainly a source of frustration for all of us. Minnesota’s caution, though, may have been the best outcome in the long run. Dalvin Cook returned from his hamstring injury to get his first action since Week 4. Even without a massive fantasy day (RB13 heading into Sunday Night Football), what we saw this week was worth the wait. Cook chipped in on the passing game with four catches and finished with 10 carries for 89 yards. The vast majority of those yards came on a 70-yard scamper where Cook reached the fastest max speed of any ball-carrier this season, per Next Gen Stats.
It’s safe to say Cook is all the way back. The Vikings could use a jolt on offense, as they haven’t received much from players beyond Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Kirk Cousins. He will make this Minnesota offense better and bring a needed option to a light RB1 crop. Forget your hurt feelings over his long absence. Put yourself in position to enjoy his presence the rest of the way.
Keenan Allen’s eruption
Keenan Allen was pacing for over 90 catches and 1,100 yards heading into Week 9. That said, the fantasy juice hadn’t been worth the August draft squeeze to this point. He offered up a performance against the Seahawks that cemented why he was one of the best second-half of the season buy-lows. Allen dropped a season-high 124 yards on Seattle in their building on just six catches. He posted double-digit targets for the third time this year. The volume is all there for Allen and the Chargers offense is close enough to peacocking that we should be willing to buy in on that. The No. 2 LA team gets the Raiders next week, so Allen could dunk even harder.
Washington’s run-defense collapse
The Falcons long-dormant rushing offense erupted against Washington in their own building in Week 9. Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith combined for 148 yards on 23 carries. Coleman also tacked on five catches for 68 yards and two scores. This, against a Washington run defense that came into the week allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game (59.7) to running backs. Run defense stats are hard to trust, with rushing production being so heavily tied to game flow. There is no doubt their front is better this year than the 2017 version but with the Falcons controlling this game, they were able to slice through the stout front seven. This is a clear outlier performance for both teams and will be hard to run with until more games of the like stack up.
Curtis Samuel’s presence
Last week, D.J. Moore enjoyed his breakout game with a 130-plus total yard affair against the Ravens. It was Curtis Samuel’s turn with two touchdowns on just five total offensive opportunities. His 33-yard rushing touchdown came on a play where Norv Turner was clearly feeling it based on the design. Samuel got every ounce out of the play in space with dazzling moves. He showed legitimate wide receiver skills on his end zone touchdown catch. It’s clear that the presence of playmakers like Moore and Samuel simply raise a long-depressed offensive ceiling in Carolina. It’s hard to say to what degree fantasy gamers should care about Samuel, beyond he and Moore cannibalizing each other from a role perspective. His volume makes him a razor-thin individual play but his big-play ability is a rarity in the Panthers offense. It’s also a welcome addition for those who care about Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey.
Seahawks slapped back to reality
Members of Seahawks Twitter, never ones for the lack of a chip on their shoulders, were clearly feeling themselves this week. Even before kickoff, the confidence around a 4-3 team that just thumped the clearly fraudulent Lions seemed a bit much. Seattle came crashing back to earth with a 25-17 home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers that felt like a bigger dud than the score indicated. Russell Wilson escaped the mess with a solid fantasy day, thanks to a season-best rushing line (5-41). Beyond that, it was bad. Chris Carson continues to see his momentum derailed by nagging injuries. Mike Davis turned in a top-15 RB performance, thanks to seven catches in a negative game script. The passing volume (26 throws) is too low for any predictive value in the passing game, including the previously efficient Tyler Lockett. The Seahawks are not a disaster but are one of many deeply flawed teams fighting for the sixth seed in the NFC Playoff picture. They are a tough offense to trust for fantasy.
Five things I don’t care about
The Buccaneers passing distribution
We don’t know anything. Multiple times this week, we discussed the effect of Ryan Fitzpatrick retaking the starting job, and how he would be a boost to the outside-the-numbers and deep receivers like Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson. Jameis Winston has long been a fan of using middle of the field weapons like slot receivers and tight ends dating back to his days at Florida State. Naturally, the two leading receivers from Sunday’s game in Carolina: slot receiver Adam Humphries and tight end O.J. Howard. The duo split four touchdowns between them. It’s worth noting that Evans (127) and Jackson (101) finished first in Washington, who just gave up a top-five positional finish to Matt Ryan in their building.
Duke Johnson’s big game
Duke Johnson popped up for a big game on the back of a season-high nine targets. He caught all of them for 78 yards and a pair of scores. While it was almost all through the passing game, his 10 touches were the most he’s seen all season. There will certainly be proclamations made about what this means for his rest-of-season prognosis, given that it came in the Browns first game without Hue Jackson. Count me as a skeptic. Nick Chubb remained entrenched as the featured back, handling 22 carries in Week 9 after getting 18 in each of his first two starts. Comparatively, Johnson is a razor-thin play from a volume perspective. He’s just not a trustworthy player in fantasy if you’re looking for a predictable ceiling. He’s worth considering on the wire this week but not at the expense of handcuff backs with more upside.
The Jets offense
A couple of seasons ago, I was all about the #NeverJets fantasy football movement in an attempt to avoid an offense that looked destined for a tanking season. Josh McCown and Robby Anderson made that look foolish. Midway through 2018, it looks like that motion may need to be considered once again. The backfield value has eroded, with Isaiah Crowell finishing under 14 carries and 50 yards rushing in four straight games. This came despite Bilal Powell’s move to IR. The receiver corps is filled with injuries and poor play. It all connects back to the rookie quarterback, whose midseason regression sank him to rock bottom today with four picks. Sam Darnold’s completion rate has gone under 60 percent in all but one game dating back to Week 3. It will be hard to recommend a Jets player until further notice.
Tarik Cohen’s ghosting
With the Bears walking into Buffalo as a 10.5-point favorite, it was easy to see the team’s scat back was a thin play this week. It went even worse for the Bills than imagined, losing 41-9 in their own building. The Bears offense lost possessions with the defense taking in two scores. The team ended up running 46 plays in the worst possible game script for Cohen. He finished with just seven catches. Cohen provided a warning sign that this game might be coming with just six touches the week before against the Jets. Chicago controlled then, too. The 70-yard receiving touchdown just masked the signs of caution. Cohen is a valuable asset that you’ll consider playing every week but he is a volatile producer when the game script isn’t right in an offense loaded with weapons. Games against the Lions (twice) and Vikings over the next month will provide closer contests for Cohen and the Bears.
Offseason takes on the Green Bay rookie receivers
Draft capital zombies were insistent that J’Mon Moore would become the third receiver. Talent snobs were hard pressed to quit Equanimeous St. Brown. Yet, here we are in Week 9 and Marquez Valdes-Scantling is running ahead of- and- way outperforming both. The rookie receiver accumulated 317 yards and scored twice over his last four games. His 101 receiving yards led the team against New England on Sunday Night Football. He’s shown versatility by operating as a big slot receiver and big-play threat during his time in the sun for Green Bay. Valdes-Scantling certainly looks the part and is the recipient of at least one dazzling Rodgers pass per game. Whatever you thought about these players coming in, throw it in the trash. Valdes-Scantling looks like he’s here to stay for 2018 and beyond.
