5 starting pitchers Mets should target via free agency or trade this offseason
David Stearns will have a lot on his plate as he reshapes the Mets this offseason, but his toughest task might be rebuilding the starting rotation.
Following the trades of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, the Mets have just two members of the 2023 rotation who should figure prominently in 2024 -- Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana.
They have a top of the rotation pitcher in Senga and someone who can pitch in the middle in Quintana, but they need to add another top of the rotation arm and at least one pitcher who can slot in the middle or back of the rotation.
If New York acquires three pitchers, they'll have David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi, Jose Butto, Mike Vasil, and others as valuable depth.
If the Mets add just two pitchers, perhaps one of the above arms rounds out the rotation as the No. 5.
Either way, these five names should be on Stearns' wish list...
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
You won't find Blake Snell or Aaron Nola on this list because I simply don't think they'll come close to providing enough value to justify the contracts they'll get entering their age-31 seasons.
The main concerns with Snell are his inability to pitch deep into games and the fact that he's pitched more than 130 innings just twice in his eight-year career.
The main concern with Nola is that he's been mediocre two of the last three seasons but is likely to get paid like an ace.
There are no such concerns with Yamamoto.
An absolute force during his seven seasons in Japan with a career ERA of 1.82, the 25-year-old has put up truly absurd numbers over the last two years, including a 1.16 ERA and 0.86 WHIP with 176 strikeouts in 171 innings over 24 starts this season as he allowed just two homers in the process.
Scouts view Yamamoto as a better pitcher than Senga, and when you combine that with his age and the scarcity of true impact pitchers on the free agent market, the bidding for him will be fierce and could eclipse $200 million.
The Mets should have him as their No. 1 overall free agent target, and will likely have to fend off the Giants, Dodgers, Yankees, and a host of other teams to land him.
Jordan Montgomery
Beyond Yamamoto, Snell, and Nola, the most sought-after pitcher on the free agent market could be Montgomery.
The left-hander found another gear this summer after being traded from the Cardinals to the Rangers, and his overall numbers were very strong.
In 32 regular season starts, Montgomery had a 3.20 ERA (3.56 FIP) and 1.19 WHIP with 166 strikeouts in 188.2 innings.
He also had two terrific starts in the ALCS for Texas, but was hit around in the ALDS and World Series.
Montgomery won't be attached to a qualifying offer, which is a big positive. But he could also perhaps get way too much in terms of both years and dollars for a pitcher with a 3.68 career ERA on the wrong side of 30 who doesn't miss a ton of bats.
If his eventual contract is reasonable, though, someone who has averaged a shade under 175 innings pitched each of the last three seasons while flashing some serious upside would be a solid option for a Mets rotation in need of stability.
Corbin Burnes
If the Mets go the trade route, making Burnes their top target there could make the most sense.
No, the Mets should not be emptying their burgeoning farm system for Burnes or the pitcher who comes next on this list, but they won't have to.
Will it take something of serious value to pry Burnes away from the Brewers? Sure. But with just one year remaining before he hits free agency, the haul will not be huge.
The biggest question here is whether the Brewers will actually dangle him.
It can be argued that with Brandon Woodruff possibly being out for all of 2024 and Willy Adames set for free agency after the season that Milwaukee should retool. But will they?
Tyler Glasnow
Glasnow's name hasn't been as front and center as Burnes when it comes to possible trade candidates.
Part of that is because he pitches in relative obscurity with the Rays, and part of it is because he missed almost the entire 2022 season and the first two months of 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
When Glasnow returned, he did so with fastball velocity that was right around his career norm (an average of 96.4 mph), continued to strike out batters at a prolific rate (12.2 per nine), and had advanced numbers that were mostly elite.
Since coming into his own in 2019 during his age-25 season, Glasnow has posted a 3.03 ERA (2.89 FIP) and 1.01 WHIP with 462 strikeouts (12.5 per nine) over 332.2 innings.
An issue has been Glasnow's availability, but with a reconstructed UCL, perhaps his injury troubles are in the past. And with Glasnow set for free agency after the 2024 season and the cost-conscious Rays unlikely to extend him, he could be on the move soon.
Shota Imanaga
A star in Japan, the left-handed Imanaga will be posted this offseason. And he could be a very strong fit in the Mets' rotation.
And it's possible he'll be a better investment than someone like Sonny Gray or a reclamation project like Luis Severino.
The 30-year-old Imanaga is coming off a fantastic season for Yokohama, with a 2.77 ERA and 188 strikeouts in 159 innings pitched.
Imanaga's walk rate was also minuscule -- a career-best 1.4 per nine innings.
In eight seasons in Japan for NPB, Imanaga has a 3.18 ERA and 1.11 WHIP while averaging 9.2 strikeouts per nine and 2.5 walks per nine.
