Our 5 best Week 7 NFL picks against the spread, plus one over/under to wager on

There are three words to describe Week 6 of the 2023 NFL regular season.

Underdogs and unders.

The two remaining undefeated teams, the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers, both lost outright despite being a touchdown or more favorite.

Later in the day, Philadelphia was shutout in the second half in a 20-14 loss to the New York Jets.

Meanwhile, it was one of the lowest-scoring weeks in the NFL this season, as 12 of 16 games went under the projected total. Overall, totals are going under at nearly a 61 percent rate in 2023, the best start to a season in 22 years.

It started off on the wrong foot with the Saints (-1) failing to cover at home after tight end Foster Moreau dropped a game-tying touchdown in the Jaguars' 31-24 victory on Thursday Night Football.

Here's my record heading into the weekend of Week 7:

2023 record: 13-23-1

Against the spread: 10-20-1

Bonus Bets: 3-3

So how will this upcoming week pan out? Here are five teams to bet on against the spread for Week 7, plus one over/under to wager on.

Los Angeles Rams (-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Rams play their third straight home game when they welcome in the Pittsburgh Steelers.

After a disappointing Week 5 performance against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Rams bounced back with a 26-9 victory over the Arizona Cardinals.

Even though the Steelers are coming off a bye in Week 6, I'm backing the Rams to cover the field goal spread.

Los Angeles has covered the spread in four of six contests in 2023 and QB Matthew Stafford should take advantage versus a beatable Pittsburgh secondary.

While the Steelers are getting a huge boost back in wide receiver Diontae Johnson, I'm not sure it'll be enough for an offense that still ranks 27th or worse in passing yards, rushing yards and total offense this season.

Despite breakout second-year running back Kyren Williams missing this matchup, Rams' wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua will be a force in leading Los Angeles to its second straight victory.

Multiple sportsbooks have the Rams at -3 with a price of -110.

NY Giants (+3) vs. Washington Commanders

The Giants almost did the impossible last Sunday night in Buffalo, coming up a yard short of pulling off a huge upset as 8-1 underdogs against the Buffalo Bills.

Now back at home, I like getting the Giants as underdogs here.

Have they not scored an offensive touchdown in more than a month? Surprisingly, yes. Has it been hard to watch the past month? Absolutely.

More: NY Giants vs. Washington Commanders: Our best bets for this NFL Week 7 matchup

With that being said, there's got to be a game where things go right and they finally start clicking, especially on offense. Despite officially being down QB Daniel Jones multiple starters on the offensive line, they should still have success against a Commanders' defense that has allowed the fourth-most yards in the NFL and 30+ points in four of five games prior to Week 6.

It's not an easy call, but this is a must bet for me to have the Giants cover as home underdogs. I would even place a small bet on them at +136 at DraftKings to win this game.

The best available price of Giants +3 is at BetMGM with a price of -105 (Bet $105 to win $100).

Cleveland Browns (-3.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts

No Deshaun Watson, no problem for the Browns last weekend in their win over the previously unbeaten 49ers.

With Watson (bruised rotator cuff) trending towards starting on Sunday afternoon, I'm laying the points here.

The Browns, with one of the best defenses in the NFL, should continue to perform at a high level against Colts QB Gardner Minshew, who had four turnovers (three interceptions and one fumble lost) in that loss to the Jaguars.

Despite the line moving from -2 to -3.5, I'd still lay the points with the Browns now as more than a field goal favorite.

Bet on the Browns to cover this spread at -105 on PointsBet.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) vs. Miami Dolphins

The game of the weekend will be the matchup between two 5-1 teams in the Eagles and Dolphins on Sunday Night Football.

This is a matchup of two of the best offenses in the NFL as they both enter this weekend ranked top five in total offense, rushing offense and scoring offense.

It's a true whoever-blinks-first type of game that wouldn't shock most if we see 60+ points scored.

This should be a fun one, but at home, behind a raucous crowd behind them, the Eagles avenge their poor second half in Week 6 and cover the spread as a field goal favorite.

At -3 on the spread, PointsBet has the best price for the Eagles to cover this number at +100.

Buffalo Bills (-7.5) vs. New England Patriots

There's no denying the Bills were exposed last week at home. Missing key defensive players in Matt Milano, Tre'Davious White and Daquan Jones, it was hard for Buffalo's defense to get off the field consistently, especially on third down.

However, there might not be a better bounce-back spot than when they head to Foxboro to take on the Patriots. New England has been outscored a whopping 93-20 over their last three games.

Since Bills QB Josh Allen took over as the full-time starter in 2019, the team is 6-3 against the Patriots and have won the last three matchups in New England by a combined score of 95-40. Pure dominance.

It may seem like a lot of points against a divisional rival on the road, but don't hesitate for a big offensive day here for the Bills against a struggling Patriots team.

If you're betting to back the Bills, the go-to number and price as of Saturday night is at -7.5 on multiple sportsbooks at -110.

Bonus Bet: Baltimore Ravens/Detroit Lions UNDER 43.5 points (-115)

The Detroit Lions have been the cinderella team of the NFL in 2023. After four straight losing seasons, the Lions flipped the script in las year, going 9-8 and finishing second in the NFC North for the first time since 2017.

Despite being middle of the pack in terms of totals on the board Sunday afternoon, I'm on the under in this spot.

The Lions have already ruled out running back David Montgomery, who had six touchdowns in four games before leaving last week's game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Detroit is getting back first round pick RB Jahmyr Gibbs for the first time in nearly a month, however I'm not sure either offense will be able to get in a consistent rhythm with two of the top run defenses squaring off in this matchup.

Baltimore has gone under this total in five of six games (2-0 to under at home) and the Lions have had 43 or fewer points in two of their three road contests.

With two solid defense going at it in a game that will feature wind gusts of 15 mph or more at kickoff, I'm betting that the total stays below this number in the Charm City.

For the best available number, go to FanDuel Sportsbook with an over/under of 43.5 points and a price of -115 (Bet $115 to win $100).

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Week 7 NFL picks vs. spread, one over/under total to bet on