4-Down Territory: Bad Bears, amazing Dolphins, weird decisions, untold stories
With three weeks of actual football in the books for the 2023 NFL season, it’s time for Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire, and Kyle Madson of Niners Wire, to come to the table with their own unique brand of analysis in “4-Down Territory.”
This week, the guys discuss these four downs:
Is it time for the Chicago Bears to move on from head coach Matt Eberflus (and to possibly make other moves)?
Do the Miami Dolphins have the best offense we’ve ever seen?
What was Las Vegas Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels thinking with that Sunday night field goal, and why did it actually make sense?
What’s the biggest untold story in the NFL right now?
You can watch this week’s “4-Down Territory” right here:
You can also listen and subscribe to the “4-Down Territory” podcast on Spotify…
…and on Apple Podcasts.
1. Is it time for the Bears to find a replacement for Matt Eberflus?
The Chicago Bears have had the kind of week it’s hard to compare to any other week an NFL team has had maybe since Bobby Petrino deserted the Atlanta Falcons in 2007. Quarterback Justin Fields had a press conference in which he threw his coaches under the bus, then he had another press conference the same day to say that he didn’t really say that. Defensive coordinator Alan Williams has left the team under mysterious circumstances, there was about $100,000 of lawn equipment stolen from the facility that may or may not have belonged to the team, and in Sunday’s 41-10 loss to the Chiefs, Fields was allowed to finish the game after he was obviously experiencing concussion symptoms after a hit early in the fourth quarter.
Not to pick on head coach Matt Eberflus after such an awful week, but if you’re the Bears, do you start making serious changes right now, or is there any benefit to staying the course?
Doug: The thing about Eberflus that really has me thinking that it’s time to move on is how bad Chicago’s defense is. Eberflus is a defensive coach, and he’s been given a pass on that because the offense has been an absolute garbage fire, but here are some relevant stats from the Eberflus era, courtesy of the always-awesome Ollie Connolly:
– 32nd in EPA/Play
– 32nd in Dropback EPA/Play
– 32nd in pressure rate
– 32nd in pressure rate w/ four-man rush
– 32nd in sacks per game
– 32nd in yards conceded per coverage snap
This whole thing is an embarrassment that makes the Matt Nagy era seem reasonable, and there’s no reason not to make a major change now. The only reason to hold off is that there’s nobody else on the staff with NFL head coaching experience, but I don’t know how you keep this going. Especially after the ways in which the Fields situation was mishandled on the field.
Kyle: Here’s the part where I advocate for keeping Eberflus. There are two outcomes here if they keep him.
One: Everything comes together, Fields progresses thanks to the continuity and Chicago finishes the season on a high note. Then they get another offseason to build out a competitive roster (although TBD on whether the front office is capable of that).
Two: Everything is a disaster and Chicago is in the running for the No. 1 pick. This is probably the more likely (and maybe preferred?) of the two options. They ride it out with Eberflus and Fields, and if it doesn’t work they’re in an advantageous position to change gears in the offseason.
Of course, they could also can him and hope for one of the same two options! There’s something to be said for continuity in the NFL though so hanging onto the coach might be prudent to avoid yet another coaching search. Just in case they move on though, can they please step into 2023 and hire an offensive-minded head coach, please?
Doug: Yeah, just don’t hire the Chiefs’ offensive coordinator!
2. Is the Miami Dolphins' offense the best we've ever seen?
Moving to an offense that REALLY works: On Sunday, the Miami Dolphins tied for the third-most points in pro football history when they stomped the Broncos, 70-20. They put up the second-most yards in pro football history with 726, behind only the 1951 Los Angeles Rams. Miami has recorded 1,651 total yards of offense this season, which is the most in NFL history through the first three games of a season, they are the only team in pro football history to score 10 offensive touchdowns in one game, and only the 1968 Cowboys scored more points in the first three games of a season than the Dolphins’ 130.
Recency bias plays a part here, but is this the best offense you’ve ever seen at the NFL level?
Doug: I think it’s as good as any I’ve ever seen, and it’s sustainable. This is not going away, because there’s no real answer to stop them. What the Dolphins did to the Broncos in the run game – 350 yards and five touchdowns on 43 carries – should scare the living bejeezus out of every defensive coordinator in the league. Remember that Mike McDaniel was Kyle Shanahan’s run game coordinator from 2017-2020, and you start to get the idea. The Dolphins will throw every run concept in the book at you, and their use of motion and misdirection rivals Shanahan’s, and he’s the best run designer in the NFL.
Now, take that run game and attach it to a passing game that forces defenses to play back, often in two-deep coverage, and with at least one safety backpedaling at the snap, because the receiver speed is too terrifying. What I’ve seen from the Dolphins this season has me thinking that they’re a truly evil combination of the Tyreek Hill Chiefs, with the 49ers’ run game. And I don’t know how anybody is going to consistently stop it.
Kyle: Yes. Flat out. It’s not only on the cutting edge of modern offense, but it’s equipped to run a modern offense at a level teams just aren’t ready to compete with. I say this with all due respect to some of the great 49ers offenses of the 80s and 90s, the 2007 Patriots and 2013 Broncos. Those teams were all outstanding in their own rights with excellent players. This Miami team is just a little different. The amount of speed they have at the skill positions isn’t something defenses can particularly prepare for.
We get so wrapped up in Xs and Os, and surely those matter a lot, but sometimes football is as easy as being bigger or faster than the dudes across from you. Miami is always going to be faster than the dudes across from them while also working in a scheme led by one of the game’s brightest offensive minds. This Miami club is going to change the way teams play offense and the way they evaluate players on both sides of the ball. Good luck getting ahead of them.
3. Did Josh McDaniels make the right call to kick the field goal?
On Sunday night against the Steelers, Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels made the decision to kick a field goal, down 23-15, with 3:15 left in the game. A Steelers penalty negated the field goal try, and gave the Raiders a new set of downs. Then, after an unsuccessful three-play sequence, the Raiders went with the field goal decision AGAIN with 2:25 left in the game, McDaniels made the field goal call again. That gave the Raiders 18 points against Pittsburgh’s 23, and that’s where the score stayed. After the game, McDaniels said that his team would need another possession regardless – which seemed to betray the fact that the Raiders would have tied the game with a touchdown and a two-point conversion.
Per OptaStats, since the two-point conversion was adopted in 1994, the Raiders are the only NFL team to attempt a field goal in the last 3:00 of the 4th quarter when down by exactly eight points with less than five yards to go for a first down or touchdown.
Was this an example of coaching brain-cramp, or was this an indictment of McDaniels’ own offense?
Doug: McDaniels had no belief in Jimmy Garoppolo at that point. He knew exactly what he was doing. Garoppolo had two passing attempts on the Raiders’ drive in question at the Steelers’ eight-yard line. Both were wild incompletions – there was an easy gimme swing pass to Davante Adams that he just flat-out missed, and a helium ball to Jakobi Meyers out of pressure that Meyers would have had to jump to the stands to catch. Those plays both happened after the Steelers’ penalty, and the second one was on third-down. The next play was the field goal. I am by no means the president of the Josh McDaniels Fan Club, but what else was he supposed to do? And now, with Garoppolo in the concussion protocol after that game, you can double down on that sentiment.
Kyle: I completely agree. McDaniels had tunnel vision on a field goal because he didn’t trust either Garoppolo or his offense as a whole. Or maybe both.. His thought process was focused solely on whether his defense could get a stop or maybe a turnover. The first field goal didn’t make a ton of sense but it would’ve at least been more justifiable given their three timeouts and two-minute warning. The fact he kicked another one is a sign that a touchdown never crossed his mind. He and this Las Vegas team are a disaster, and that sequence on Sunday Night Football was a perfect encapsulation of their astounding ineptitude.
4. What's the NFL story we're not talking about enough?
Through three weeks of the 2023 season, tell us about one thing in the NFL you don’t think is getting nearly enough attention.
Doug: The Cleveland Browns’ defense. If Deshaun Watson could suck about 25% less, these guys would be unstoppable. But what the Browns have put together on the other side of the ball under new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is pretty ridiculous. Through the first three weeks of the season, Cleveland ranks first in net yards per passing attempt allowed at 3.5. The Baltimore Ravens rank second at 4.3. The NFL average is 5.9. They’ve allowed 14 first downs in the passing game – the NFL average is 32.2. They’ve allowed 2.8 yards per rushing attempt – the NFL average is 4.1. They’ve allowed one passing touchdown. The NFL average is 3.9.
From the fronts to the coverages, the Browns have been the NFL’s best defense overall. You may have seen that on Sunday, the Titans were rolling one and two tight ends to Myles Garrett’s side of the formation just to give some kind of relief. It didn’t work – Garrett had four sacks and nine total pressures – but the difference this year is that it’s not just about Garrett. Za’Darius Smith has been a force, and they’re starting to get contributions out of lesser-known guys like Maurice Hurst and Alex Wright. And on the back end, because Schwartz is so good at dialing up coverage concepts that look like one thing but are actually something very much else, they’re matching coverage to pressure as well as any team in the league.
Kyle: The Texans and Cardinals aren’t awful! They’re not going to be good, but it’s worth celebrating that two of the NFL’s worst teams aren’t a total abomination! Houston got its first win of the year by smoking the Jaguars 37-17 IN Jacksonville. Rookie quarterback CJ Stroud was superb, completing 20-of-30 throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, head coach DeMeco Ryans has their defense looking capable despite beginning essentially from square one from a roster perspective.
Then there are the Cardinals, which demolished the Cowboys 28-16 in Arizona for their first win of the year. It looked in the offseason like head coach Jonathan Gannon would be a punchline on the NFL’s most tanking team. Instead he has their defense playing very well, they were a couple plays away from winning in Washington to begin the year, and they outplayed the Giants for 40 minutes in Week 2 before getting a win over a very good Dallas squad.
Again, neither of these teams are likely to scare the .500 mark, but they’re not going to be an easy win for whoever is on their schedule. Huge props to these teams. It won’t be a huge surprise any week they win this year.
