32 Fantasy Stats, Week 7: Dalton Kincaid Breakout
Emari Demercado played on 78 percent of the Cardinals’ snaps.
Demercado operated as Arizona’s primary ball carrier, out-rushing Damien Williams 13-1. He was also heavily involved in the passing game, catching four passes for 17 yards. Keaontay Ingram, who got the start last week, did not play a snap on offense.
After Week 1, Drake London has earned a 25 percent target share.
London wasn’t involved in the Falcons’ opener, but Arthur Smith has made a point to get him the ball more often ever since. London has an impressive .23 targets per route run and has seen a hilarious 78 percent of Atlanta’s end zone looks since Week 1.
Lamar Jackson finished second in EPA per dropback (.59) and fifth completion percent over expected (+11.1).
Had it not been for Patrick Mahomes’ masterclass versus the Chargers, Jackson would have led the way in EPA per dropback last week. Jackson currently ranks eighth on the season in EPA per play despite being tied for sixth in the NFL in dropped passes. Pro Football Focus has him as their No. 2 graded passer.
Dalton Kincaid set a career-high in targets (eight).
Kincaid set career highs across the board including in targets per route run (.28) and target share (22 percent). He caught all eight of his looks for 75 yards. The Bills were forced to move away from their 11.5-personnel looks as Dawson Knox dealt with a wrist injury. He will now be sidelined for an unknown amount of time after undergoing surgery on his wrist. The news puts Kincaid at the back of the TE1 rankings until Knox returns.
Tyson Bagent ranked ninth in EPA per dropback (.24).
Bagent was a check-down merchant versus the Raiders, averaging two air yards per attempt and 5.6 passing yards per throw. This allowed him to avoid mistakes while tossing one score to running back D’Onta Foreman. Bagent was not intercepted and was only sacked once.
Kareem Hunt saw three goal line carries and scored twice.
Hunt had been trending toward being the Browns’ goal line back before Week 7. Jerome Ford going down with an ankle injury paved the way for him to claim that role and then some. Hunt also took the field for the two-minute drill for the first time this year. With Ford out for a few weeks, Hunt could put up RB2 numbers as the last man standing in this backfield.
Courtland Sutton ranks third in the NFL in end zone targets (seven).
Sutton is top-10 in end zone target share, seeing 44 percent of his team’s scoring opportunities through the air per week. He isn’t blowing Jerry Jeudy out of the water in terms of targets or air yards, but when Russell Wilson only has eyes for one option in the red zone, that’s going to provide a massive edge in fantasy.
In two starts this year, Jahmyr Gibbs has 28 carries for 148 yards and a touchdown.
Coming mostly from his Week 7 outing, Gibbs also has 10 receptions for 60 yards. He played on 59 percent of the Lions snaps in his first start and that number skyrocketed to 86 percent versus the Ravens. He also dominated the carries and routes last week. In any game David Montgomery misses, Gibbs will be ranked as an RB1.
Since Week 2, Jordan Love has averaged -.06 EPA per dropback.
His CPOE sits at -4.1. Those marks rank 25th and 30th in the NFL over that time span. After throwing six scores with zero picks in his first two games of the year, Love has four touchdowns and six interceptions in his past four games. He put up solid numbers in Week 7, though he was fortunate to come away with two touchdowns instead of one or two interceptions on those exact same plays.
.@RomeoDoubs wrestles this one away for a TD!
: #GBvsDEN on CBS
: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/iTs8HMaXlh pic.twitter.com/sfB0C7khnn— NFL (@NFL) October 22, 2023
Josh Downs has averaged 14.7 PPR points when Gardner Minshew gets a majority of the snaps.
Downs has posted an average of 5.6 receptions, 67.4 yards, and 0.4 touchdowns in five games with Minshew as the starter or coming in early in place of Anthony Richardson. He posted 11.4 PPR points in the two games Richardson started and finished combined.
Calvin Ridley has finished outside of the top 45 receivers more times than he has finished as a top 25 receiver.
Ridley has two top-10 performances and a whole lot of nothing after that on his resume as a Jaguar. He has run a route on over 90 percent of Trevor Lawrence’s dropbacks in five games this year and his two sub-90 games came when he was banged up in Weeks 2 and 3. His 13.7 aDOT makes his boom weeks big, but his bust weeks are equally as painful and twice as likely.
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Rashee Rice set a career-high in route rate (65 percent).
That number still has room for growth and Rice will need to see more routes if he is going to be a consistent fantasy option, but we’re working toward a massive breakout over the second half of the season. Rice’s .28 targets per route run trails only Kadarius Toney among the Kansas City wide receivers. His 2.56 yards per route run paces the team by a wide margin.
Davante Adams averaged .36 targets per route run.
That was the second-highest mark of his season. He also posted a 27 percent target share, breaking his streak of sub-20 percent target shares at two games. Adams is back on track as a WR1 for Week 8.
Los Angeles Chargers
Josh Palmer has been targeted 22 times in three games without Mike Williams.
Palmer seamlessly stepped into Williams’ role as the Chargers’ field-stretcher role after the latter went down with a season-ending injury. Over his past three games, Palmer has 334 air yards and two end zone targets. He went for 133 yards on five catches in Week 7. Palmer is pushing for top-24 status with this kind of volume.
Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have combined for a 71 percent target share since Kupp returned.
The two receivers have combined for 79 percent of the Rams’ air yards. For another player on the roster to post fantasy-relevant numbers, they would need to amass nearly every target and air yard not controlled by Kupp or Nacua. That isn’t happening as the running backs, Tyler Higbee, and Tutu Atwell are all splitting the remaining opportunities.
Raheem Mostert saw 75 percent of the Dolphins’ carries.
Mostert posted just his second game with single-digit PPR points on Sunday night and it was Jeff Wilson’s first game of the year. Box score chasers could put two and two together and conclude that Wilson took a notable piece of the rushing pie, but they would be wrong. Wilson did not earn a carry and Mostert earned a season-high in carry share.
Alexander Mattison saw 38 percent of the Vikings’ carries.
That goes down as a season-low by nine percent. Entering Week 7, Mattison had seen 79 percent of the Vikings’ carries. On Monday night versus the 49ers, Cam Akers out-carried Mattison 10-8. Mattison also ran a route on less than 50 percent of Kirk Cousins’ dropbacks.
Kendrick Bourne has run a route on over 90 percent of his team’s dropbacks in three straight weeks.
When DeVante Parker returned from a minor injury early in the season, Bourne, who opened the year with an 11-target game, was once again relegated to a part-time job. That didn’t last long as Bill Belichick has since come crawling back to Bourne. He has 16 catches for 152 yards over the past two weeks.
Taysom Hill set a career-high in routes (42).
This comes a week after he set a career-high in routes. With Juwan Johnson out, the Saints have leaned on Hill as a pass-catcher more than ever before. He has 13 targets over his past two games but also earned five carries and scored a rushing touchdown last week. This is what bizarre fantasy TE1 usage looks like.
Jalin Hyatt has earned 42 percent of the Giants’ air yards over the past two weeks.
Hyatt has been on the field for 73 percent of the Giants’ passing plays and holds a 16 percent target share over that span. After a few weeks of slowly getting Hyatt up to speed, Brian Daboll appears content with Hyatt as a starting outside receiver over Isaiah Hodgins.
A.J. Brown has a 33 percent target share and a 48 percent air yards share through seven games.
DeVonta Smith’s target share and air yards share sit at 18 and 32 respectively. Brown has put a gulf of volume between himself and Smith. Smith’s numbers aren’t bad, but they pale in comparison to what Brown is doing.
Five straight games with 125+ receiving yards for A.J. Brown. #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/XVrj7tbwXH
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) October 23, 2023
George Pickens set a career-high in receiving yards (107) for games played with Diontae Johnson.
Pickens’ career-high in yards without any qualifiers came in a game with Johnson sidelined earlier this season. The fact that he earned a 35 percent target share and a 62 percent air yards share in Johnson’s first game back from injured reserve is a great sign for his fantasy outlook going forward.
San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey played on all 53 of the 49ers’ snaps.
The observant among you may remember that there was a question of whether or not McCaffrey would play at all on Monday night heading into the weekend. He was dealing with an oblique injury and was listed as questionable. McCaffrey is simply built different. Including playoffs, he now holds the record for most consecutive games with a touchdown at 16.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba set a career-high in route rate (82 percent) and target depth (10.3).
The trend with JSN’s usage couldn’t be more clear. He is seeing more work farther downfield in every game. The loss of DK Metcalf for Week 7 and Seattle’s offensive line getting healthier, allowing them to play more 11-personnel, have both helped his usage in recent weeks, but even those factors can’t explain away the newfound role.
Mike Evans has seen 42 percent of the Bucs’ end zone targets this year.
In Week 7, Chris Godwin out-targeted Evans for the first time this year (excluding the one game Evans left early). Despite that, Evans’ dominance of the scoring looks held strong as he saw the team’s only end zone target. Evans also earned more air yards on the back of a higher aDOT than Godwin.
Terry McLaurin has earned 29 percent of the Commanders’ targets and 38 percent of their air yards over the past four weeks.
McLaurin had an 18 percent target share and a 24 percent air yards share entering Week 4. Things have drastically turned around for him since then. He has parlayed his improved role into 24 catches for 306 yards over the past four games.
