32 Fantasy Stats, Week 4: Kyren "RB1" Williams
Michael Wilson is 17th among receivers in yards per route run (2.3).
Wilson has run a route on 74 percent of the Cardinals’ passing plays this year and had seen over 30 percent of the team’s air yards in three straight games before Week 4. He finally broke out on Sunday with a 7/76/2 line. Arizona's offense has been shockingly competent under Josh Dobbs. Wilson's role puts him in the WR3 mix going forward.
Jonnu Smith leads the Falcons with 179 receiving yards.
Bijan Robinson is first on the team in receptions and second in receiving yards. With six catches for 95 yards in Week 4, Smith surpassed both Drake London and Kyle Pitts in receptions and yards on the season.
A Falcons tight end gained 95 receiving yards today. That's the most receiving yards by a tight end in a game this season.
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) October 2, 2023
Somehow, Smith’s 95 yards are a season-high for the tight end position. The Falcons don’t have a playable fantasy option outside of Robinson.
Lamar Jackson is averaging a career-low, 7.2 aDOT.
Frustratingly, Jackson is also at a five-year low in Pro Football Focus’s Big Tim Throw Rate and a high-water mark over the same span in Turnover Worthy Play rate. The Ravens’ lack of healthy players at every skill position hasn’t helped, but Todd Monken has failed to usher in the new era of Baltimore’s offense that was promised.
James Cook set a season-low in snap share (40 percent).
Cook also ran fewer routes than Latavius Murray for the first time this season. Oddly enough, Week 4 was also Cook’s first time leading the Bills' backfield in carries inside the five-yard line. The Bills are playing hot hand with every role in their backfield, dropping Cook’s weekly floor substantially.
Chuba Hubbard out-carried Miles Sanders 14-13.
Hubbard also played more snaps than Sanders and ran more routes than the former Eagle. Per Next Gen Stats, Hubbard is averaging .7 yards over expected per carry with a 42.3 percent success rate. Sanders is at -.8 yards and 20.4 percent respectively. Sanders should continue to rank ahead of Hubbard in weekly projections, but that may not last much longer.
Justin Fields set career-highs in yards (335), completions (28), and touchdowns (four).
This is, of course, partially a statement about the Broncos’ defense. Still, Fields earned top-five marks in Pro Football Focus passing grade and completion percent over expected. He doesn’t face a defense that is above average in EPA per dropback until Week 9.
The Bengals are averaging 12.3 points per game, 31st in the NFL.
They are 28th in EPA per dropback. Joe Burrow ranks dead last in the NFL in touchdown rate (1.3%) and yards per attempt (4.8). The obvious concern is that Burrow’s calf issue is limiting him to dink-and-dunk throws. He is at career lows in target depth and time to throw.
Jerome Ford has seen 42 percent of the Browns’ carries without Nick Chubb active.
That would rank 26th on the entire season. He has run a route on 60 percent of the Browns’ dropbacks and is the only running Cleveland back with a goal line carry over that span, so it’s not all doom and gloom. Ford had the potential to be a three-down back in Chubb’s absence. If he holds onto his current role, he will be a high-value committee back.
Jake Ferguson has an 18 percent target share through four games.
Ferguson enters Week 5 as the PPR TE8. He has the second-highest targets per route run among all tight ends with at least 30 routes. Ferguson is ninth in yards per route run. We’re on pace for a breakout season from the second-year tight end.
Russell Wilson ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play and second in CPOE.
Wilson is on pace for 4,310 passing yards and 38 touchdowns plus 298 rushing yards. He currently ranks as the fantasy QB10. Sean Payton is far from perfect, but he has seemingly restored Russ to his Seattle-era self.
David Montgomery leads the NFL in touchdowns from inside the five-yard line (four).
Kyren Williams and Kenneth Walker also have four short-yardage scores each. Montgomery is on pace for 32 carries inside the five this season. Jamaal Williams led the NFL with 28 such carries in 2022. Montgomery is in an expanded version of the Williams role and will rank as an RB1 going forward.
Jordan Love has thrown two touchdowns and three interceptions against top-10 defenses in EPA per play this year.
Love played the Bears and Falcons in his first two games. Both teams rank outside of the top 20 defenses in EPA per dropback allowed. He tossed six touchdowns and no interceptions versus those two teams. When faced with more serious competition, the Lions and Saints, both of whom rank top-15 in EPA per dropback allowed, Love turned back into a pumpkin. The good news is that he gets a dreadful Las Vegas defense this week, putting him in line for another QB1 outing.
C.J. Stroud has the second-most passing yards (1,212) for a rookie through four games.
There’s no denying it, C.J. Stroud is him. Stroud is sitting at 14th in EPA per play and third in yards per attempt. He is currently the QB11. Stroud gets an Atlanta defense that ranks 23rd in EPA per dropback allowed this week.
Anthony Richardson is second among quarterbacks in designed rush attempts.
That is despite missing a game and over two-thirds of another contest. Richardson is tied for first in the NFL in rushing touchdowns. He is seventh in total yards and ninth in total attempts. This is what a QB1 season looks like.
Anthony Richardson is fun pic.twitter.com/IOidXqpgAo
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 3, 2023
Christian Kirk has a 30 percent target share in the past three weeks.
Conversely, Calvin Ridley’s target share sits at 14 percent over the past three games. Evan Engram has a higher target share than Ridley over that stretch, seeing 23 percent of Trevor Lawrence’s attempts. We may have been a bit premature in calling Ridley a WR1 after his Jacksonville debut.
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Isiah Pacheco set a season-high in snap share (63 percent).
Pacheco also tied his season-high in target share at 11 percent. He rushed 20 times for 115 yards and a score while adding three catches for 43 yards. The best part of his stat line was that it came in a tight game versus an AFC opponent. The Chiefs gave Pacheco the rock when it mattered most. After a few middling weeks to start the season, Pacheco is back on track for RB2 numbers.
Josh Jacobs set a career-high in receiving yards (81).
His 11 targets were also a career-high and he brought in eight of those looks. He has only topped eight catches in a game once. Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers have dominated the Raiders’ targets this year, but the third member of the trio is Jacobs. The former yards-from-scrimmage champ is fourth in the NFL in touches and third in receptions. Jacobs is being fed and remains easily within the RB1 range.
Quentin Johnston ran a route on 69 percent of Justin Herbert’s dropbacks.
That’s still a bit off from where we wanted to see Johnston at after Mike Williams went down for the year, but it’s a start. For reference, Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer had route rates of 97 percent each. Johnston should be held through the Chargers’ Week 5 but it’s hard to justify starting him in Week 6.
Kyren Williams is second among running backs in rushing plus receiving expected fantasy points.
Williams and Christian McCaffrey are the only running backs in the NFL with more than 15 red zone carries and 20 targets. Williams is tied for third in the NFL in carries inside the five. He has played 30 more snaps on offense than any other running back. Williams will rank as a top-five fantasy back in my weekly rankings going forward.
De’Von Achane is averaging 2.3 fantasy points per touch.
Achane is leading all running backs in this stat by a laughable margin. Fantasy Points' Jake Tribbey put things in perspective.
De'Von Achane is averaging 2.3 fantasy points per touch. That's 53% better than the next-closest RB (Raheem Mostert).
Based on that, a single Achane touch is worth:
2.3 Christian McCaffrey touches
3.0 Tony Pollard touches
4.3 Dameon Pierce touches— Jake Tribbey (@JakeTribbey) October 2, 2023
Even if Jeff Wilson comes back and earns a meaningful role, Achane is going to be one of the league's most efficient runners. He is in position to have one of the most efficient seasons ever for a running back.
Alexander Mattison ranks 26th in Next Gen’s rush yards over expected (-.01).
Cam Akers, on the other hand, is dead last in the NFL at -.18 yards over expected per attempt. Both running backs looked solid in Week 4, but Mattison out-carried Akers 17-5. There were reports of a hot hand situation. That either didn’t exist in Week 4 or Mattison won the battle in Akers’ first game as a Vikings.
Rhamondre Stevenson out-carried Ezekiel Elliott 14-6.
Stevenson’s 67 percent carry share versus the Cowboys was actually his highest of the season. On the other hand, Elliott did flip him in routes for the first time this year. It’s hard to say there was much truth to the reports of Elliott getting starter’s reps in Week 4, but his usage on passing downs could become a concern for Stevenson if it continues.
Alvin Kamara saw 14 targets, the second-most in his career, and went for 33 yards, the 50th-most of his career.
The usage through the air in Kamara’s first game back was great, but it wasn’t overly creative. He ran a route while lined up as a receiver on 20 percent of his passing plays. His career rate of routes run as a receiver is 26 percent. He had a negative aDOT and managed just 4.5 yards after the catch per reception. Derek Carr’s inability to throw deep could buoy Kamara’s passing-game usage in the short-term, but I still need to see Pete Carmichael treat Kamara as a weapon more often to fully buy in.
Daniel Jones was one sack shy of tying the NFL record for most sacks taken in a game.
The Seahawks entered Monday Night Football with five sacks through three weeks. They left MetLife Stadium with 16 sacks on the year. Pro Football Focus has Jones with the fifth-highest rate of allowed pressures—pressures caused by the quarterback—in the NFL. They also have the Giants graded as the No. 31 pass-blocking unit. It’s hard to find an optimistic outlook for Jones and the New York offense this year.
Zach Wilson’s 73.4 PFF passing grade is his highest single-game mark with at least 25 dropbacks since entering the NFL.
Wilson threw for 245 yards and two scores. He was not intercepted and took just two sacks. His only blemish on the night was a costly botched snap that sealed New York’s fate.
A dropped snap gives the ball back to the @Chiefs
: #KCvsNYJ on NBC⁰: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/cLJQ8MOopx pic.twitter.com/LqzxwzaAZv— NFL (@NFL) October 2, 2023
Week 4 was possibly the best game of Wilson’s career. He now gets to follow that up with a matchup against the Broncos. Denver’s defense is on pace to allow the most points to opposing offenses in NFL history and it’s not a close race. If an opponent existed that would allow Wilson to sustain his moment, they would be named the Broncos.
Philadelphia Eagles
Jonnu Smith had more receiving yards in Week 4 than Dallas Goedert has all year.
Goedert is averaging a dismal 4.4 PPR points per game. He hasn’t scored yet and has more games with zero receiving yards than 50 yards. His target share of 17 percent is nearly identical to his mark from 2022, but Goedert isn’t doing anything after the catch this season. Last year, Goedert averaged 7.6 yards after the catch per reception. This season, that number has plummeted to 2.2 yards. Goedert should rebound in a number of metrics, but it’s fair to wonder whether or not he will finish the season as a TE1.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Jaylen Warren is fourth in the NFL in target share and first in targets per route run.
Warren ranks fourth among all backs in target share and first in targets per route run. Both he and Najee Harris have run exactly 62 routes.
Jaylen Warren has outscored Najee Harris in all four games this season. (PPR)
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) October 1, 2023
Harris has Warren bested in most rushing efficiency metrics, but that doesn’t matter if he can’t earn targets.
San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey is on pace for 510 PPR points this year.
After three games under 30 PPR points, McCaffrey truly punished everyone who took Ja’Marr Chase over him in fantasy drafts with 48.7 points in Week 4. He touched the ball 27 times. McCaffrey has officially flipped Justin Jefferson in my rest-of-season PPR ranks.
Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has fewer air yards than Colby Parkinson and Noah Fant this year.
JSN has 20 targets at an aDOT of 3.2 yards. He is taking the field for just over half of his team’s snaps. With bye weeks rolling in, fantasy managers may be forced to cut ties with him.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield ranks sixth in EPA per dropback and fifth in CPOE.
Mayfield has seven touchdowns and two interceptions with just four sacks this season. Tampa Bay is one bye in Week 5, but Mayfield has low-end QB1 potential in his Week 6 outing versus the Lions.
Tennessee Titans
Ryan Tannehill is one of four quarterbacks to start all four games this year and come away with just two touchdowns.
The others are Joe Burrow, Daniel Jones, and Derek Carr. The Titans rank 26th in pass rate over expected and Tannehill is 24th in EPA per play.
With no efficiency or volume to work with, Tannehill is currently the QB28. DeAndre Hopkins is the WR44.
Washington Commanders
Brian Robinson is seventh among running backs in rushing expected fantasy points.
Robinson is tied for seventh in the league in carries inside the opponents’ five and eighth in total red zone carries. This week, he gets a Denver defense that ranks 31st in the NFL in rush EPA per attempt allowed and has given up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
