32 Fantasy Stats, Week 3: Ja'Marr Chase Bounces Back
James Conner ranks fourth in the NFL in touches (58).
The Cardinals piling touches on Conner’s plate and the veteran back is handling them with ease. Conner ranks 14th in Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expected per attempt and 11th in Pro Football Focus’s yards after contact per carry. Conner gets an unforgiving matchup with the 49ers next week but will remain in the RB2 ranks based on his role.
Kyle Pitts something something air yards something something advanced metrics.
Another week goes by and another clip of Pitts compiling vacant air yards hits the timeline.
Sheesh pic.twitter.com/0slZRug6V4
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 25, 2023
Pitts leads all tight ends in air yards share and is third in target share. The only problem is that the Falcons are 26th in pass attempts per game and PFF has deemed just 56 percent of his targets as catchable.
Lamar Jackson saw seven designed runs.
Jackson didn’t see a designed run in Week 1 and saw three designed attempts in the following game. With J.K. Dobbins done for the year, Justice Hill out for Week 3, and Gus Edwards leaving due to a mid-game concussion, Todd Monken made Jackson’s legs the focal point of Baltimore’s ground game. Jackson returned to favor with 101 yards and two touchdowns. We could see more of this style of play in Baltimore’s Week 4 matchup with the Browns.
Josh Allen’s 71 PFF passing grade is a four-year low.
Allen’s Big Time Throw rate of 5.3 percent and Turnover-Worthy Play rate of 4.6 percent are also his worst marks of the past four seasons. The Bills’ pass rate over expected sits at three percent, which, again, is a four-year low. On top of all of this, Allen is throwing at the lowest aDOT of his career. It’s a small sample, but some concerning things are happening in Buffalo.
Miles Sanders is on pace for 113 targets.
Only Austin Ekeler saw more targets in 2022. The bad news is that Sanders is averaging 3.4 yards per target and has one carry inside the five-yard line. It’s going to be hard for Sanders to post big numbers if he can’t improve as a pass-catcher or his team doesn’t get him near the end zone more, but his usage between the 20s is elite.
D.J. Moore saw 43 percent of the Bears’ air yards.
Moore’s target share and aDOT have both risen in each of the past two weeks. He opened the season with a six percent target share but boosted that number to 30 percent by Week 3. Though the Bears’ passing game remains dysfunctional, if it ever gets going, Moore will be the primary beneficiary.
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Ja’Marr Chase saw 15 targets, one shy from tying his career high.
Chase entered Week 3 with 10 catches for 70 yards. He was outside the top 50 receivers in PPR points. With their backs against the wall in a must-win game versus the Rams, Zac Taylor refocused his offense around getting Chase the ball, leading to 12 catches for 141 yards. As Josh Norris points out, Taylor also made an effort to get Chase looks in the slot more often.
22 slot snaps for Ja'Marr Chase last night
the most since Week 1 of the 2022 season
30% slot snap rate through 3 games after 21.7% slot rate last season pic.twitter.com/9T4LqXh9ZC— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) September 26, 2023
After a brief two weeks of panic, fantasy managers can resume treating Chase like a top-three option at his position.
Deshaun Watson led all quarterbacks in CPOE (+19.6 percent).
Watson entered the week ranked 29th in CPOE. The Browns’ offense was a nightmare through two games. Watson had completed 55 percent of his passes at 5.6 yards per attempt. Nick Chubb, their only bright spot, was ruled out for the season with a knee injury shortly after Week 2. Cleveland’s matchup with the Titans could have been the continuation of a disaster. Instead, they pulled out of the spiral and put together what may have been their best performance of Watson's Cleveland tenure.
Tony Pollard remains on pace to record the most red zone attempts in the past 23 years.
Last week, I called Pollard’s absurd pace of eight red zone carries per game unsustainable. I was almost certainly right, but he did manage to keep it up for another week. Pollard leads the NFL in rushing expected fantasy points and is on pace for 49 more red zone carries than any other back since the year 2000. His box scores have been good but they could be otherworldly. We’re getting a two-score game from him at home against the Patriots this week.
Marvin Mims leads the Broncos in receiving yards (195) and is eighth on the team in routes.
Mims leads all NFL receivers in yards per route run, yards per target, and yards per reception. At some point, Sean Payton is going to cave and give him a more meaningful role.
Sam LaPorta is the first rookie tight end to debut with at least five catches in each of his first three games.
LaPorta is the real deal. He is second in the NFL in target share amongst tight ends and second in PPR points. LaPorta also ranks fourth in targets per route run and first in yards per route run.
Sam LaPorta shadow realm pic.twitter.com/utMuV24qB3
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 26, 2023
Luke Musgrave is third among tight ends in air yards.
Musgrave is the TE10 in PPR leagues and has yet to score his first NFL touchdown. His 17 percent target share is solid and he moves the sticks when the ball is in his hands. He is currently available in over 80 percent of Yahoo leagues. Picking him up is free money for teams in need of a tight end.
Tank Dell is running 73 percent of his routes from the outside and is averaging 2.61 yards per route run.
At 5’8/165, it was fair to wonder what kind of role Dell would play in the NFL. Players of his size have next to no track record of success. Instead of caving to the haters, Dell has balled out so far, and he’s doing it as an outside receiver who moves the chains.
the 'Tank Dell will have to move to the slot in the NFL' allegations have been thoroughly beaten pic.twitter.com/NmRRHD7PEc
— Kyle Dvorchak (@kyletweetshere) September 26, 2023
Zack Moss’s 30 carries were the most for a running back in a single game this year.
Moss has seen snap shares of 98 percent and 76 percent over the past two weeks. Through two games, Moss has 54 touches for 252 yards from scrimmage and two scores. This is fantasy RB1 usage.
The Jaguars lead the NFL with nine drops.
No team has more than seven dropped passes by their receivers (plus running backs and tight ends) except Jacksonville. PFF has Lawrence ranked second in the NFL in Big Time Throw Rate and 26th in Turnover-Worthy Play Rate. Both marks are significantly better than where he was at last year. Lawrence and the Jacksonville offense have been off to a dreadful start this year, but there doesn't seem to be anything fundamentally wrong at quarterback. This feels like a spot to buy the dip.
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Justin Watson leads the Chiefs in receiving yards (158).
I know that doesn’t sound correct, but it is. Trust me. I checked five times. The Chiefs’ top two receivers by total routes—Skyy Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling—are averaging 1.0 and 1.3 yards per route run this year. Rashee Rice, who is fourth on the team in routes, is averaging 2.77 YPRR. Watson, third in routes, is at 2.48. No Chiefs wide receiver is playable given their mismatches of efficiency and volume.
Jakobi Meyers has a 33 percent target share in two games with the Raiders.
Meyers also has a 37 percent air yards share and is being targeted on 34 percent of his routes. The former Patriot is understandably being overshadowed by Davante Adams, but Meyers deserves WR2 recognition in fantasy leagues going forward.
Josh Palmer has run a route on 68 percent of Justin Herbert’s dropbacks.
Palmer is miles ahead of first-round pick Quentin Johnston on the depth chart through three games. Johnston has only run a route on 28 percent of Herbert’s dropbacks. Johnston’s role will grow as the season goes on, but he isn’t playable in Week 4. Palmer will rank in the WR4/5 range.
Kyren Williams leads all running backs in snaps.
The Rams made Cam Akers a healthy scratch in Week 2 and then traded him to Minnesota before Week 3. LA ran 135 plays on offense in those two games. Williams was on the field for 131 of them including all 55 of the team’s snaps in Week 3.
De’Von Achane had the sixth-most PPR points (51.3) for a rookie in NFL history.
It was the most points for a rookie in any of their first three games. Achane turned 22 touches in 233 yards from scrimmage and four scores. Mostert wasn’t left in the dust though. He dropped 45.2 PPR points on the back of 142 total yards and another four scores.
The Vikings' receivers rank first, second, and 11th in total routes.
Justin Jefferson obviously leads the league in routes while K.J. Osborn sits at second. Jordan Addison is only running a route on 75 percent of Kirk Cousins’ dropbacks, but with how often the Vikings are passing, that is enough to have Addison sitting just outside the top 10 wideouts in routes.
The Patriots rank second in the NFL in plays per game (72.7).
With two losses and a narrow win under their belts, the Patriots have been forced to play at the fastest pace in the league. They are averaging 23.3 seconds per play and are running no-huddle at the third-highest rate in the league. Even in neutral game-script, the Pats are the fastest team in the league. This has allowed them to get Mac Jones to 42 pass attempts per game while also giving Rhamondre Stevenson 56 touches and Ezekiel Elliott 34 touches.
Rashid Shaheed ran a route on 84 percent of the Saints’ passing plays.
Shaheed had been running a route on exactly two-thirds of Derek Carr’s dropbacks before Week 3. With Foster Moreau out, Pete Carmichael opted for more three-wide sets, putting Shaheed on the field more often. Shaheed was unable to come down with either of his two targets in Week 3, but the improved role should give him a higher fantasy floor going forward.
Matt Breida was on the field for 82 percent of the Giants’ offensive snaps.
Playing from behind versus the 49ers, Briand Daboll didn’t get to establish the ground game in Week 3, leading to a measly four carries for Breida. His underlying role was strong though. He dominated the Giants’ snaps, got the team’s only red zone carry, and was operated as New York's primary back on passing downs.
The most PPR points Garrett Wilson has ever scored with Zach Wilson as the starter is 16.3.
Wilson has scored more than 17 PPR points in 6-of-8 career games without Wilson.
I'm beating a dead horse here, but...
Garrett Wilson is averaging 6.8 half PPR in 12 games with Zach Wilson, with only one game above 12.8 half PPR points ... the 68-yard TD game in Week 2.— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) September 26, 2023
Per Hayden Winks, he has averaged a horrific 6.8 fantasy points in Wilson starts. There is no end to his suffering in sight.
Philadelphia Eagles
D’Andre Swift ranks 10th in the NFL in rush yards over expected per carry and sixth in success rate.
A breakaway runner at heart, Swift has generally performed well in RYOE but struggled in success rate. This is to say that he has been a home-runner hitter who strikes out often. As we saw in Detroit, that’s not an archetype all coaches love, so Swift turning in an elite success rate is a major win for his outlook in Philly. Kenneth Gainwell ranks 28th in RYOE per carry and 20th in success rate.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Calvin Austin ran more routes than Allen Robinson.
Austin is averaging .4 more yards per route run than Robinson this year and has a significantly higher PFF receiving grade. He is also generating more yards after the catch per reception and leads the Steelers’ receivers in contested catch rate.
San Francisco 49ers
Elijah Mitchell’s 34 percent snap share was a high-water mark dating back to Week 10 of the 2022 season.
Mitchell has only played in six games since then because of injuries, but it looked like he may never cross a third of the team’s snaps with the way Christian McCaffrey was being used at the start of this season. McCaffrey still earned 23 touches in Week 3, but Kyle Shanahan’s comments about getting Mitchell more involved weren’t just coach speak. Mitchell ran 11 times and caught all three of his targets last week.
Seattle Seahawks
Kenneth Walker leads the NFL in carries inside the five-yard line.
Walker saw all nine of the Seahawks’ carries inside the five last year and now has six of the team’s seven goal line looks in 2023. Seattle is fourth in points per game and EPA per play, putting them near the end zone often. When they get there, they put the rock in Walker’s hands and let him go to work. He trails only Raheem Mostert in rushing touchdowns through three games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sean Tucker ranks 45th in PFF’s rush yards over expected per carry model.
That’s good news for Rachaad White as he ranks 39th in the metric. Tucker is one of the few backs in the league whom a coach could justify playing White over.
This graph comes from Amelia’s Probst’s RYOE app.
In reality, as was the case in 2022, this looks like a systemic issue for the Bucs. White remains an RB2 based on volume but big games on the ground may be hard to come by.
Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry is averaging 3.2 yards per carry and has yet to top 80 rushing yards in a game.
Henry has 51 carries for 163 yards through three contests. The Big Dog started 2022 with a nearly identical stat line of 54 carries for 192 yards before averaging 104 yards at 4.6 yards per carry for the remainder of the season, so it’s not time to panic yet. However, there are red flags. Henry ranks 25th in Next Gen’s RYOE model and 32nd in PFF’s metric. That’s despite both PFF and ESPN grading their line as above-average in run-blocking.
Washington Commanders
Sam Howell is on pace to take 108 sacks.
Howell has been brought down 19 times through three games. The Bills were responsible for nine of those in Week 3. The record for sacks taken in a season is held by David Carr at 76. Howell is also on pace for 28 interceptions. Though it wouldn’t be a record, it would tie him for the 15th-most picks in a season. Things don’t get any easier in Week 4 as the Commanders travel to Philadelphia.
