32 Fantasy Stats, Week 15: Kyren Williams is Unstoppable
Trey McBride has seen 45 targets since Kyler Murray’s first start.
That has been good for a 31 percent target share. McBride also leads all tight ends in yards per route run. McBride is 24 years old, in his second season, and dominating in terms of efficiency and volume. With Zach Ertz gone, there’s a strong argument to be made for McBride as the TE1 overall in dynasty.
Bijan Robinson earned 23 percent of the Falcons’ carries.
That is his lowest share of Atlanta’s attempts this season after removing the dreaded illness game. Robinson even ran a route on a higher percentage of his team’s passing plays in that game than he did in Week 15. If you somehow survived his weak performance versus the Panthers, it will be hard to start him as even an RB2 for Week 16.
Isaiah Likely has a 20 percent target share since Mark Andrews went down.
That is on 87 percent of the Ravens’ routes across three games. Likely has finished as a TE1 four times in six games without Andrews available over the past two seasons.
James Cook ranks fourth in Next Gen’s rush yards over expected per carry and fifth in success rate.
Cook is also second in yards per route run and fifth in receiving yards among running backs. He’s an elite producer on the ground and through the air. Now Cook is on pace for an RB1 campaign with over 1,700 yards from scrimmage in his second NFL season.
Chuba Hubbard has 74 touches over his past three games.
He has seen 67 percent of the Panthers’ carries over his past three appearances and has run a route on just shy of half of Bryce Young’s dropbacks. With the team posting a -14 percent pass rate over expected since Frank Reich was fired, that has resulted in absurd rushing volume for Hubbard.
Justin Fields lost 9.8 fantasy points to drops in Week 15.
That is only accounting for the target depth and potential touchdown if the player who committed the drop was standing (or sitting) in the end zone.
Darnell Mooney you HAVE to catch this pic.twitter.com/sTJGfd5kgD
— Ben Brown (@BenBrownPL) December 17, 2023
At first glance, it looks like Gardner Minshew lost more fantasy points to drops because two of his dropped throws were into the end zone, costing him 9.7 points. However, adding the interception that followed the Darnell Mooney drops gives Fields the "edge" at 9.8 points.
Joe Mixon saw less than half of the Bengals’ carries for the first time this year.
Chase Brown only saw seven attempts, but that was a career-high in carry share for the rookie. Mixon was held to 10 carries. His route rate and target share were both below his season-long average as well. Mixon will fall out of the weekly RB2 ranks to end the season if this usage continues.
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David Njoku’s target depth is up to 6.8 over his past four games.
That might not sound special, even for a tight end, and it’s not. However, it’s a drastic turnaround from his target depth of 3.1 over the first 10 games of the season. Despite increasing his target depth, Njoku has also managed to up his target volume, boosting his target share by two percent over his past four games.
The Cowboys are averaging over 18 plays per game when either winning or losing by three possessions.
The Cowboys are one of just two teams averaging over 14 three-score plays per game and they are wildly above that mark. As has been the case all year, the Cowboys seemingly refuse to play a normal game. That is part of the reason Dallas has 10 running back touchdowns and Pollard only has half of them.
Since the Broncos’ Week 9 bye, Russell Wilson is averaging 1.3 passing touchdowns per game.
Wilson was averaging exactly two touchdowns per game at a 6.9 percent touchdown rate heading into the bye. His touchdown rate is down to 4.5 percent over his past five games. He has still saved the scam for fantasy purposes with a rushing touchdown in three of his past four games, but the touchdown regression is hitting him through the air and should come for his rushing scores sooner rather than later as well.
Jahmyr Gibbs is the RB4 since David Montgomery returned to the lineup in Week 10.
The good news for Montgomery drafters is that he is the RB9 over that stretch. With the Lions registering a negative six percent pass rate over expected since Montgomery returned, it hasn’t been hard for both backs to get home on a weekly basis.
Both members of the duo have over 500 yards from scrimmage and at least four touchdowns over their past six games. The Lions have the second-most running back rush attempts during that span.
Dontayvion Wicks leads the Packers in yards per route run (2.0).
Wicks also leads the Packers in PFF receiving grade, ESPN’s Open Score, and ESPN’s Overall Score. That’s not to say Wicks is the best receiver on this team, but he has certainly made a name for himself by stepping up in Christian Watson’s absence.
Devin Singletary out-carried his backups 26-2.
Dare Ogunbowale and Dameon Pierce each saw one carry. Singletary also ran over half of the routes and earned a 15 percent target share. He totaled 30 touches for the second time this season. Singletary is the only player in the league with 30 touches in multiple games.
Trey Sermon fell one yard shy of his career-high in carries.
Sermon rushed 17 times for 88 yards after Zack Moss went down with a shoulder injury. Jonathan Taylor was also inactive. Both backs have a shot at playing this week, but Sermon is at least worth an add for fantasy teams who can afford to speculate with a roster spot.
Calvin Ridley has a 27 percent target share in two games without (or mostly without) Christian Kirk.
Ridley’s air yards share sits at 33 percent in those games and, most importantly, he has earned 43 percent of his team’s end zone targets. Ridley remains the most frustrating example of a boom/bust WR2 we have this year.
Rashee Rice earned the highest route rate of any Chiefs receiver this year (93 percent).
Over his past four games, Rice has a 29 percent target share. This year, Rice has been targeted on 26 percent of his route and is earning 2.35 yards per route run. Both numbers lead all Kanas City receivers and tight ends.
Zamir White’s snap share (70 percent) and route rate (59 percent) were both higher than Josh Jacobs’ season-long averages.
White also saw 65 percent of the Raiders carries, which was just behind Jacob’s mark this year. More or less, White became a one-for-one replacement for Jacobs. He rushed 17 times for 61 yards and a score while adding three catches for 16 yards.
Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer combined for 77 percent of Easton Stick’s air yards.
On the other hand, both players had target shares below 15 percent. Gerald Everett led the team with a 27 percent target share. If Keenan Allen doesn’t come back for Week 16, Everett will be a low-end TE1 while both of the receivers will rank as deep FLEX options.
Per PFF, Kyren Williams leads all running backs in expected fantasy points per game.
Williams also leads the NFL in touches per game and trails only Christian McCaffrey in fantasy points per game. It feels impossible not to rank him as a top-five dynasty running back.
Jaylen Waddle saw 85 percent of the Dolphins’ air yards in Week 15.
With Tyreek Hill out, Tua Tagovailoa locked in on his other elite speedster, peppering him with nine targets, good for a 35 percent target share. Hill should be back for Week 16, but if he isn’t, Waddle will rank as a top-five fantasy receiver.
Ty Chandler has more 20-point fantasy games than Alexander Mattison this year.
Chandler rushed 23 times for 132 yards and a touchdown in Week 15 and was also active as a pass-catcher. He caught three balls for 25 yards. Mattison was out with an ankle issue, paving the way for the Vikings’ best running back to see the bulk of the work. Even when Mattison returns, it will be hard for Kevin O’Connell to go back to him.
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Ezekiel Elliott has a 26 percent target share over the past two weeks.
Zeke could rush for three yards and a fumble and he still might return RB3 value. He only put up 46 yards from scrimmage in Week 15 but five catches were enough to make him a top-25 option in PPR leagues. With Bailey Zappe taking the easy completions to Zeke at a high clip, the veteran back will remain in the RB2 ranks as long as Rhamondre Stevenson is out.
If the season ended today, Jimmy Graham would tie the record for fewest catches with four or more touchdowns in a season in the Super Bowl Era.
Graham has six catches this year and four of them have been touches. The Saints have seven players with multiple touchdowns, rushing or receiving. That’s as many as the Chiefs have, but Kansas City, who are infamous for how much they spread the ball, have four more touchdowns in total.
Darren Waller ran a route on 47 percent of his team’s dropbacks.
As expected, Waller was eased back into the lineup. His 15 percent target share was solid and should grow as the season comes to a close, but he can’t be trusted as a TE1 until his route rate gets up to its pre-injury level.
Garrett Wilson is one of three players with six games of 12 or more targets.
The other two are Davante Adams and Michael Pittman. You know the deal with the Jets at this point in the season. They have two elite players who see the ball a ton—Wilson and Breece Hall—but score so few points that it's hard to bet on either for fantasy purposes. Nothing has changed there. Wilson’s fantasy season will go down as a bust, but he looks like a screaming buy in dynasty formats.
D’Andre Swift has one touchdown since the start of November.
Swift’s rushing volume and touchdown output are both down drastically over his past six games. From Week 2 to Week 9, Swift averaged 17 carries for 76 yards and .4 touchdowns per game. Those numbers are down to 12 carries for 56 yards and .2 touchdowns. His downward trend in usage, the Eagles’ pass-heavy approach, and an increase in negative game script are all to blame.
George Pickens has finished as a WR2 in one game with Diontae Johnson active this year.
That game was Johnson’s first back from injured reserve all the way back in Week 7. Since then, he has been targeted on 16 percent of his routes and has earned a 19 percent target share. Pickens is averaging eight PPR points per game over that stretch.
Brock Purdy is one pace to set the single-season record for yards per attempt in the Super Bowl Era.
Purdy is averaging 9.9 yards per throw. That would tie Kurt Warner at 9.9 yards per attempt, set in 2000. To get more granular, Purdy is at 9.8828 while Warner reached 9.8818, putting Purdy on pace to set the record by a thousandth of a yard per throw. Purdy is also on pace to set the adjusted yards per attempt record.
Kenn Walker saw 79 percent of the Seahawks’ carries.
That was his highest mark since Week 7 and his third-highest carry share of the year. He still left the field for passing downs, hurting his route rate and target share, but Walker appears to have a stranglehold on the rush attempts in Seattle for now.
Chris Godwin topped 150 yards for the first time since 2019.
You have to go back beyond the Tom Brady era in Tampa Bay to find Godwin’s last game with as many yards. Amid a season that has him posting career-worst numbers in a plethora of stats, Godwin came to life in Week 15.
Derrick Henry is the first player in NFL history to have at least 20 touches in a game and produce less than 15 yards from scrimmage.
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) December 17, 2023
I can’t do any better than this stat. It sums up the state of the Titans’ offense and Derrick Henry’s fantasy value perfectly.
Antonio Gibson earned 25 percent of the Commanders’ carries and played on less than half of their snaps.
Gibson also ran a route on less than half of his team’s passing plays. Chris Rodriguez paced the Commanders with 10 rushes. Jonathan Williams even pitched in for 13 snaps. Sans Brian Robinson, the Commanders operated a nightmare of a committee.
