32 Fantasy Stats, Week 1: Jordan Love Rising
Zach Ertz led all tight ends with 10 targets in Week 1.
The low-wattage passing attack under Joshua Dobbs ran through Zach Ertz. The veteran tight end easily led the Cardinals in receptions with six. Only James Connor (five) caught more than three passes. Ertz is a solid streaming option in PPR leagues while every Arizona other pass-catcher can be written off until Kyler Murray returns.
Desmond Ridder had more receptions than Drake London.
Yes, you read that correctly. Rider caught his own pass after it was deflected on the first play of the game and that would go on to be one more catch than London.
ridder's value in ppr leagues pic.twitter.com/es3Gjb7vvQ
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) September 10, 2023
Kyle Pitts only caught two balls and Bijan Robinson, who did not lead the team in carries, paced Atlanta with six catches. The Falcons, somehow led by Tyler Allgeier on the ground, are bound to once again be an infuriating team for fantasy purposes.
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Zay Flowers led the NFL in first read target share at 60 percent.
Target shares on a quarterback’s first read are extremely telling because they let us know the intentions of an offense. Throws to the first read are also more successful, resulting in a higher touchdown rate and more yards per attempt.
1pm/TNF leaders in 1st read target share, per @FantasyPtsData:
1. Zay Flowers - 60% (!)
2. Hopkins - 42%
3. Chase - 39%
4. Evans - 38%
5. Sun God - 36%
5. Ridley - 36%
7. Ertz - 35% (?)
7. Higgins - 35%
7. Pittman - 35%
10. Nico Collins - 33% https://t.co/mZSk4thOzw— Jake Tribbey (@JakeTribbey) September 11, 2023
When Flowers leads the league in first read target share by 18 percent, he gets my attention. Flowers was a strong prospect and he earned a massive role in his debut. He looks like a screaming buy.
James Cook saw a 15 percent target share.
Six running backs saw a target share of at least 15 percent last year. Cook was schemed targets via screens and got a few shots past the line of scrimmage. He also dominated the running back carries. Cook rushed 12 times and his backups earned just three attempts. This is what a workhorse role looks like.
Miles Sanders saw 22 touches.
That was split between 18 carries and four targets. Only two running backs touched the ball more in Week 1. Carolina couldn't get anyone going outside of Sanders. No receiver caught more than two balls. Hayden Hurst posted a 5/41/1 line but was barely on the field for more than half of the team’s snaps.
Of Roschon Johnson’s 17.5 PPR points, 15.9 came while the Bears were at a three-score deficit.
Johnson didn’t see his first touch until the third quarter. He was peppered with targets while the Bears were down either 18 or 24 points but wasn’t part of the game plan early in the contest. His fantasy line makes him an RB1 on the week, but I wouldn’t go crazy after him on the waiver wire. He only appears in the box score because the Bears got trounced.
Joe Burrow threw for 82 yards, the lowest mark in any of his 50 NFL starts by over 50 yards.
Both quarterbacks in the Cleveland/Cincinnati game appeared affected by the rainy conditions, but that can only explain so much of Burrow’s disastrous performance. He appeared out of sync with his receivers and missed a litany of routine throws. Still, I’m not worried about Burrow’s fantasy outlook. All of this is only to say that we’re throwing out the Week 1 stats for this entire team.
Between the 2020 and 2021 seasons, Nick Chubb caught more than three passes in a game once. He caught four balls in Week 1.
Chubb has never been used as a pass-catcher, but the Lake Erie tides appear to be shifting in Cleveland. The weather making deep passing impossible played a role in Chubb’s involvement through the air, but Watson also made a few mistakes that were characteristic of his 2022 flop. Barring a full return to 2020 form, I expect the Browns to play balanced and keep Chubb in the game plan through the air as well.
Tony Pollard earned three carries inside the five-yard line.
That puts Pollard at half of his goal line carry total from 2021 in just one week. In reality, it was less than one week as the Cowboys were able to rest their starters to close out their beating of the Giants. With an elite role at the goal line under his belt, my “Tony Pollard will finish as the RB1 overall” take remains in play.
Marvin Mims ran a route on 27 percent of Russell Wilson’s dropbacks.
Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Brandon Johnson played over Mims, who was the Broncos’ fourth receiver. The dream is dead. Feel free to cut Mims in all formats but Dynasty. Check out my Week 2 Waiver Wire article for some players to add after cutting Mims.
Jahmyr Gibbs was on the field for 27 percent of the Lions’ snaps.
David Montgomery, on the other hand, logged a 79 percent snap share. Gibbs looked explosive on his touches, turning seven carries into 42 yards and two catches into another 18. The thing is, volume drives fantasy points and Montgomery earned 21 totes. For now, Montgomery will sit well ahead of Gibbs in my weekly rankings.
Jordan Love averaged .55 expected points added per play.
Per Kevin Cole, only Tua Tagovailoa was better on a per-play basis.
Week 1 Quarterback EPA/play (ex MNF)
1) Tua Tagovailoa 0.59
2) Jordan Love 0.55
3) Matthew Stafford 0.51
4) Jimmy Garoppolo 0.47
5) Dak Prescott 0.34
6) Brock Purdy 0.27
7) Derek Carr 0.20
8) Russell Wilson 0.17
9) Jared Goff 0.14
10) Justin Herbert 0.12
11) Anthony Richardson…— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) September 11, 2023
Love faced off against a dreadful Chicago defense. Still, he did what good players do in easy matchups and torched his opponent. Love gets a harder matchup versus the Falcons next week but is the best quarterback pickup on the market for fantasy managers who just lost Aaron Rodgers.
Dameon Pierce ran a route on just 46 percent of C.J. Stroud’s dropbacks.
That is a far cry from the every-down role he was poised to earn based on his preseason usage. He also saw 61 percent of the team’s running back rush attempts. It's a strong number, but without a larger cut of the receiving work, it’s not high enough for him to return RB2 numbers on this Houston offense.
Anthony Richardson led all quarterbacks in rushing expected fantasy points.
He also led all quarterbacks in red zone carries, carries inside the five-yard line, and designed carries. This is what a QB1 looks like in 2023.
Calvin Ridley earned 35 percent of the Jaguars' targets.
Ridley dominated the Jaguars’ receiving opportunities in every fashion.
Calvin Ridley looking like a damn ALPHA in Week 1 with the Jaguars.
97% routes (elite)
35% target share (elite)
49% air yards share (elite)
50% end zone targets (lmao)
Have a damn day, King.
We might have a top-six WR on our hands.— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) September 11, 2023
As FantasyLife’s Dwain McFarland points out, Ridley was an alpha in Week 1. Even after reasonably scaling these numbers back, Ridley looks to be on the precipice of a top-five fantasy season at his position.
Kadarius Toney’s 29.7 Pro Football Focus grade was the worst for a wide receiver since 2018.
The stat comes from PFF’s lead analyst Sam Monson. Toney had three drops, one of which led to a pick-six. He ran 11 routes on 45 Patrick Mahomes dropbacks. With Travis Kelce expected to return, Toney has to get on the field more often to be a fantasy-relevant receiver. That’s something he has yet to do in Kansas City and this nightmare of a game isn’t doing him any favors.
Jimmy Garoppolo ranked second in completion percent over expected (+13.1).
Only Russell Wilson logged a higher CPOE. Garoppolo was treated as exclusively the product of the Kyle Shahan system all summer. Shanahan’s scheme certainly helped, but it’s possible fantasy drafters undervalued what Jimmy brings to the table.
The Chargers’ 234 rushing yards was the franchise’s third-highest rushing total in a game over the past decade.
Per Underdog’s Hayden Winks, the Chargers had the lowest pass rate in neutral game situations in Week 1.
Week 1 neutral pass rates pic.twitter.com/DpdIGUWvUR
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) September 11, 2023
LA’s ground game generated .32 EPA per play while the passing attack sat at just .12 EPA per play, so it’s hard to blame them for the run-first approach. I expect the team to shift back toward the pass in Week 2 against a Tennessee defense that was a pass-funnel last year.
Puka Nacua’s 15 targets were the third-most for a rookie in their NFL debut.
Nacua, as we all expected, will go down as one of the greatest rookies to ever do it.
Most targets ever by a rookie WR in their 1st game:
1. Terry Glenn (17)
2. Julian Edelman (16)
3. PUKA NACUA (15)— Jake Tribbey (@JakeTribbey) September 11, 2023
The BYU alum saw a 39 percent target share and was targeted on 40 percent of his routes. Both he and Tutu Atwell, who matched Nacua with 119 yards, left Tyler Higbee and Van Jefferson in the dust. This duo should continue to perform well until Cooper Kupp returns.
Tua Tagovailoa amassed 110 more air yards than any other quarterback.
Tagovailoa attempted 45 pass attempts, third-most among all quarterbacks, and his 11.4 aDOT ranked second. He threw for 466 yards, 22 more yards than any other passer. After his ballistic game versus the Chargers, Tua moved to the co-favorite alongside Patrick Mahomes to win MVP.
Jordan Addison ran a route on 66 percent of Kirk Cousins’ dropbacks.
K.J. Osborn ran more routes and played more snaps than Addison, but it was the rookie who came up with a big fantasy day.
Jordan Addison’s first NFL touchdown: pic.twitter.com/wb3sHBcSx0
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 10, 2023
Addison’s route share will climb and his already-solid production will follow suit. He remains a strong FLEX option for Week 2 against the Eagles.
Ezekiel Elliott saw seven carries and seven catches.
Rhamondre Stevenson dominated the snaps for New England, but snaps don’t put food on the table. Stevenson managed 12 carries and six catches, though Zeke’s role could ultimately be a painful thorn in the side of Stevenson backers.
Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed finished Week 1 top-five in yards per route run among receivers.
Both New Orleans wideouts topped 3.5 yards per route run. Derek Carr led the league in aDOT to open the year, so it was easy for the Saints' burners to post efficient lines. Shaheed was a part-time player in this game, so it will be hard to trust him as a weekly fantasy option. Olave, on the other hand, is a full-time player with elite talent. We are in line for a breakout season from the second-year receiver.
New York Giants
The Giants had more yards after the catch than receiving yards.
Most of this stat is fueled by a few dump-offs behind the line of scrimmage at the end of the game. Though, after seeing what happened on Sunday night, there isn’t much to talk about with the Giants. If you want something actionable, Isaiah Hodgins ran 24 routes while Darius Slayton and Parris Campbell ran 32 and 33 routes each. Hodgins was subbed out for rookie Jalin Hyatt at times and can be cut in most fantasy formats.
New York Jets
Breece Hall led all running backs with 81 rush yards over expected.
Per NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Hall averaged 8.14 yards over expected per attempt. Dalvin Cook, the man signed to ease Hall back into the lineup, averaged -1.75 rush yards over expected. Hall’s success rate also dwarfed that of Cook. They may have been in a backfield-by-committee in Week 1, but I don’t see that lasting long.
Philadelphia Eagles
Kenneth Gainwell's 62 percent snap share, 14 carries, and 18 touches were all career highs.
Gainwell ceded next to no work to D’Andre Swift and Boston Scott. The duo combined for two carries and two catches. Rashaad Penny was a healthy scratch. Gainwell suffered a rib injury in the contest, so it’s unclear what his role will look like on a short turnaround to Thursday Night Football. Otherwise, he would be one of the top waiver wire adds of the week.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Calvin Austin earned six targets on 54 percent of the Steelers’ routes.
Austin began to fill in for Diontae Johnson when the latter went down with a hamstring injury. Johnson is expected to miss a few weeks, meaning Austin could be in line for a significant role to open the season. Austin was an electric receiver at Memphis who went in the fourth round of the draft last year. An injury kept him from playing as a rookie but now he is getting his shot.
San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey led all running backs in touches (25) and earned an 85 percent snap share.
He led all running backs in carries (22) and rushing yards (152) as well. McCaffrey’s snap share would have been his second-highest mark as a 49er in 2022. Any talk from the offseason of easing McCaffrey’s workload was somewhere between overblown and outright fictitious.
Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ran a route on 66 percent of Geno Smith’s dropbacks.
The first-round rookie led the Seahawks in targets per route run at .21, but he wasn’t on the field enough to make much of that efficiency. For now, JSN drafters remain in a holding pattern. His talent is obvious but a full-time role remains elusive.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans accounted for 30 percent of the Bucs' targets and 50 percent of the team's air yards.
A man on a mission in a contract year, Evans was the focal point of the Bucs' surprisingly competent passing attack in Week 1. Chris Godwin, meanwhile, was relegated to a 20 percent target share with a measly 16 percent cut of the air yards. Godwin and Evans' usage ebbs and flows based on the matchup, but this is a situation to keep an eye on.
Tennessee Titans
Tyjae Spears played more snaps than Derrick Henry.
Rotoworld writer Zachary Krueger has the full breakdown here.
True: Tyjae Spears out-snapped Derrick Henry 36 to 28.
Also True: The Titans entered the 4th quarter against the Saints down 16-9.
Also True Pt. 2: Tyjae Spears saw 20 of his snaps in the 4th quarter.— Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB) September 12, 2023
The good news is that Spears has a stranglehold on passing-down usage. He played on all of the Titans’ third downs and was able to out-snap one of the league’s most talented backs. The bad news is that he didn’t do much with the snaps, seeing just four touches. Tennessee’s plan is not for him to see this many snaps either, as they obviously want to be playing from ahead more often this year. Spears isn’t a startable fantasy option yet, but he appears to have removed most of the receiving work from Henry’s plate.
Washington Commanders
Antonio Gibson fumbled in the second quarter on his third carry and did not record another rush attempt for the duration of the game.
Brian Robinson, on the other hand, racked up 19 carries and two targets, one of which he took for a seven-yard score. Gibson has struggled to make the transition from college gadget player to NFL running back, and that doesn't seem to have changed in 2023. Fantasy managers can feel free to drop him for a better back off the wire.
