31 Takes: Can Vegas get on track?

A quarter of the way through last season, the Vegas Golden Knights were the talk of hockey. And for good reason.

They opened the season 14-6-1, outscoring their opponents by 13, and generally looking pretty good (but not great) in the underlying numbers as well.

This was a team shooting the absolute lights out, overcoming the fact that their No. 1 goalie missed almost two months with an early-season concussion. The myriad backups used in his stead were better than they had any real right to be, but the team’s collective 11.8 shooting percentage was what drove results.

This year, uh, not so much.

Even with last night’s win against Edmonton, Vegas saw their record land at 9-11-1 in 21 games, which no one saw coming. This is a team that improved its offensive depth and had reasonable assurances of goalie health, so most people saw them, well, maybe not repeating what they did last year, but possibly ending up in the same ballpark.

Instead, disaster. In large part due to injuries or suspensions to key players and a general lack of any of the luck that drove the team to the kind of heights it saw throughout last season.

Alex Tuch missed eight games. Max Pacioretty missed four (and even when he’s been in, he’s not making a difference on the scoresheet at all). Erik Haula has missed the last six and is out for months, not weeks. Paul Stastny has missed SEVENTEEN and isn’t expected back until mid-December.

On top of that, Nate Schmidt — the team’s best defenseman, for better or worse — failed a drug test and only returned to the lineup for the first time last night. Getting him back should help, but who knows how much?

Because to be honest, the team arguably hasn’t missed these guys in terms of how they’re actually playing the game. At 5-on-5, their shares of attempts, shots on goal, expected goals, penalties, scoring chances, high-danger looks, etc. are all significantly better. We’re talking improving to the 56 percent range, across the board, from last year’s 51ish. While it would be nice to have had a fully healthy roster, it doesn’t seem like they’ve needed much help dominating games.

And yet, this team seems to stink. Their goal difference is now minus-5 largely because they can’t score at full strength or on their now-awful power play. And because neither Marc-Andre Fleury nor Malcolm Subban could stop traffic by walking into it.

Both those things, in theory, should sort themselves out. Especially because that first line still looks like one of the best in hockey. But much like the Golden Knights banked a ton of wins last year through a huge PDO, their terrible percentages this year are closing their window faster than they’d like.

What’s keeping it open is the fact that the rest of their division also stinks. Vancouver sits third in it right now, with a minus-11 goal difference in 22 games. The Ducks are fourth at minus-17.

Vegas needs to get its own business in order ASAP; because of this slow start, they now need to play at a 102-point pace for the rest of the year just to get to 95 points. For reference, they had 109 last year in an incredible season, so it’s a tall hill to climb.

The good news here is that there’s both plenty of room for improvement, and plenty of opportunity as well. Given how well they’re playing overall, if they can get luck back on their side, it shouldn’t be a problem.

31 Takes

Anaheim Ducks: Boy it sure seems like a lot more teams are sweeping the California trips these days. Pretty interesting.

Arizona Coyotes: Does everyone in the league these days just have like half their blue lines injured?

Boston Bruins: Speaking of which, the Bruins are dressing like a 40 percent AHL lineup these days but they’re still either winning or losing in tight ones. Pretty good team.

Buffalo Sabres: They just keep winning. Pretty remarkable what having an actual NHL defense and more than one guy who can score does for you.

Calgary Flames: I’m just gonna keep doing this until Mike Smith’s ass is stapled to the bench for the rest of the season: The Flames are now 6-1-0 in Big Save Dave Rittich’s starts and 5-7-1 in Smith’s. Note who has considerably more appearances, and marvel.

Carolina Hurricanes: How many times in the last four or five years, do you think, the Hurricanes have said they’ve reached a turning point and then lost 3 of the next 5? I want to believe them this time, but…

Chicago: Now is definitely the right time for Rockey Wirtz to be putting out a book, for sure.

Colorado Avalanche: Yeah the Avs have points in all of their last three games but before that they’d lost five in a row, so you do the math.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Yeah dude it’s 2018, no one fights anymore.

Dallas Stars: In a battle of teams with like two combined good defensemen, Dallas narrowly won, which is better than losing.

Detroit Red Wings: These guys might want to stop winning any day now.

Edmonton Oilers: You get the feeling Ryan Spooner is gonna be a pretty reliable 50-point guy playing with McDavid if he gets the chance. Fast, has hands, etc. but hasn’t been able to drive play too much himself in his career.

Florida Panthers: When you can get solid second-line talent for pennies on the dollar, I guess you should do it.

Los Angeles Kings: What’s worse? Going to a shootout with Chicago or losing to the Kings in a shootout?

Minnesota Wild: No one from Minnesota has ever scored more goals than Zach Parise? That’s insane, right?

Montreal Canadiens: The Canadiens want to trade Karl Alzner for when Shea Weber comes back. Related: I’d like $10 million for writing this take. Seems like both have about the same chance of happening.

Nashville Predators: The Predators ended a three-game losing streak and even after that slide, their record was still 14-5-1. Man.

New Jersey Devils: If only someone could have foreseen these guys being bad.

New York Islanders: These guys sure seem to score a lot on relatively few shots. I bet it lasts forever.

New York Rangers: Okay, sure.

Ottawa Senators: At what point does the league step in and force these guys to not-embarrass themselves? This is brutal.

Philadelphia Flyers: No excuse for this roster to be as bad as it is. Just none.

Pittsburgh Penguins: They’re dead last in the division and ended Saturday night tied for second-worst in the league. Yikes.

San Jose Sharks: Okay but what if Karlsson starts scoring more?

St. Louis Blues: Mike Yeo is still the coach of this team, huh? Okay.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Ahh, hmm, for me this is bad.

Toronto Maple Leafs: All this with Matthews out? And Nylander? Seems pretty good.

Vancouver Canucks: Brutal headline but a pretty good point.

Vegas Golden Knights: Yeah who knows how much Nate Schmidt helps, right? I figure he played way over his head last year.

Washington Capitals: Lars Eller is an elite third-line guy who can occasionally do more than that. Big fan.

Winnipeg Jets: Getting 7 of 8 points strikes me as a good homestand.

Gold Star Award

When you score three goals in 1:31 of game time? That’s good!

Minus of the Weekend

The breathless updates on William Nylander are getting to be a bit much, for me. I’m not a Leafs fan, though.

Play of the Weekend

This looks real casual but getting a shot off like that? Great goal here.

Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week

User “Ice Beach” is having a good time.

Signoff

Ay, naranjas en la cabeza!

Ryan Lambert is a Yahoo! Sports hockey columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All stats via Corsica unless otherwise noted.)

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