3 reasons why Jeff Brohm and Louisville football can — and can't — win Holiday Bowl vs USC

Louisville and Southern California will square off for the first time Wednesday in the Holiday Bowl at Petco Park in San Diego.

Both teams have had key players opt out of the bowl game and will rely on depth at those positions. Though the Trojans have struggled some this season, the Cardinals have been solid in Year 1 of Jeff Brohm's tenure. A win to close the season would make it even better for Louisville, which has lost its last two games.

Here are three reasons why Louisville can and can’t win the Holiday Bowl against USC:

Three reasons Louisville can win the Holiday Bowl

Experience playing USC

One benefit of bringing in transfers is their experience playing nonconference opponents. Defensive lineman Stephen Herron and quarterback Jack Plummer left Stanford and California, respectively, for Louisville, and each played USC in the Pac-12 last year.

Herron and Plummer lost to the Trojans during USC’s 11-3 season in 2022, when quarterback Caleb Williams won the Heisman Trophy. Herron was credited with half a sack and five tackles — including 1 ½ for loss — in Stanford’s 41-28 defeat. Despite Cal’s 41-35 loss to USC, Plummer threw for 406 yards and three touchdowns (one interception). He was sacked three times.

Although Williams won’t play, Plummer and Herron, who will face USC for the fourth consecutive year, have insight into Trojans coach Lincoln Riley’s system.

“With that offense, they have numerous athletes on that side of the ball,” Herron said. “I think they've passed it to like eight or nine guys in that room. That's ridiculous. So being able to spread the ball out like that, they don't care who gets it. For me playing, it's just making sure I don't try to get ahead of myself and overthink things and just read out my keys.”

USC’s underperforming defense

Statistically, the Trojans had one of the country's worst defenses this season. Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch was fired with two games left in the regular season. USC ranked 114^th in rushing defense (183.7 yards per game), 115^th in passing yards allowed (255.2 yards per game), 119^th in total defense and tied for 120^th in scoring defense (34.9 points per game). USC hired D’Anton Lynn as its new defensive coordinator from UCLA, which had one of the better defenses statistically. Lynn was hired Dec. 1, so he hasn't had much time to install his defense at USC.

The Cardinals can take advantage after averaging 244 passing yards (52^nd nationally), 175.3 rushing yards (45^th) and 30.9 points per game (43^rd).

Motivated by losses

In some ways, Louisville’s stellar season has been spoiled by recency bias. Two of U of L's three losses came in the final two games of the season, when the Cardinals were outscored by 17 points.

Though the Cardinals didn't rebound from the Kentucky loss with a win, they bounced back after the Pitt loss. After its first loss of the season, Louisville had two weeks to prepare for Duke and posted a 23-0 victory. After having almost a month to prepare for USC following the loss to Florida State in the ACC championship game, the Cards will look to reach 11 wins for the first time since 2013.

“It's built up that sense of urgency, especially in our room to finish the season out right, to send guys out the right way, and to set this program up the right way going into next season,” U of L offensive lineman Eric Miller said. “Try and get that sour taste out of our mouths, out of our fans' mouths and go take on a really good opponent.”

Three reasons Louisville can’t win the Holiday Bowl

Louisville is missing Jawhar Jordan

In his final season at Louisville, running back Jawhar Jordan generated 1,437 all-purpose yards (40^th among FBS players). That included 1,128 rushing yards (25^th nationally and nearly half of the team’s rushing yardage).

While dealing with a hamstring injury, Jordan was limited in some games but never missed any as a 13-game starter. Even when he played only 22 snaps against Virginia Tech, the New York native scored the first touchdown and contributed 57 yards on 14 carries.

The Cardinals have never been without him this season, but they will have to figure out what that looks like after Jordan opted out of the Holiday Bowl to begin pursuing his professional career. Jordan was the only running back with starting experience, so Maurice Turner or Isaac Guerendo will be in a new role for the final game. The lingering question: How will either of them respond to being RB1?

Persistent road woes

Louisville hasn’t played well away from home this season, with two of its three losses away from L&N Stadium. Though the Cardinals averaged 30.9 points in 13 games, they averaged 23 points on the road.

Only three of the team’s 13 games were true road contests. Neutral-site games against Georgia Tech and Indiana felt like home games for the Yellow Jackets and Hoosiers because of the venues’ proximities to the schools.

Louisville also lost in the ACC championship game — at a true neutral site — and had its worst offensive showing of the season. The Cards had 188 yards of offense and were held without a touchdown for the first time since a 27-3 loss at Virginia in 2018. The struggles were due, in part, to FSU’s stacked defense, and Louisville didn’t do itself any favors with five penalties for 48 yards.

Of bowl-eligible teams, Louisville is the seventh farthest from its site (2,070 miles), according to BetKentucky. With USC about 122 miles from Petco Park, the contest could be similar to playing Georgia Tech and Indiana at the neutral sites.

USC playing for pride

Like Florida State, USC is one of the historic football powerhouses, but the Trojans looked like anything but one during the second half of the season. The Trojans (7-5) lost their last three games, including a 38-20 decision to rival UCLA in the regular-season finale. In addition to Grinch’s firing, the program has had 16 players transfer out, including quarterback Malachi Nelson and running back Raleek Brown. Nelson and Brown were five-star prospects and the No. 2 players in California during the respective 2023 and 2022 recruiting classes.

USC also will play for the pride of the program, which has won 11 national championships and has eight Heisman Trophy winners.

“Pedigree,” Miller said when asked what comes to mind when he thinks of USC. “Obviously, they're one of the top dogs, the blue bloods of college football, and they have been for a long, long time. (It’s a) program with great tradition. They're gonna have talent everywhere on the field.”

Added Herron, “It's a legendary school. Guys are always going to want to go there.”

Reach Louisville football, women's basketball and baseball beat writer Alexis Cubit at acubit@gannett.com and follow her on X at @Alexis_Cubit.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Holiday Bowl: Why Jeff Brohm, Louisville football can, can't beat USC