Top 111 MLB Free Agents for 2024: From Shohei Ohtani to Shelby Miller
Welcome to the 2024 edition of the Top 111 Free Agents. Excluded are players whose options are practically certain to be picked up. That group includes Max Muncy, Jorge Polanco, Mex Kepler, José Leclerc and Yan Gomes. I’m also leaving off Javier Báez, Ross Stripling and Omar Narvaez under the assumption that they’ll be exercising their player options.
Players are ranked based on how I expect teams will view them, not on how I view them myself. As such, they’re listed from predicted biggest contract to smallest, using my patented adjustments for multiyear deals.
All ages are as of Apr. 1, 2024.
1. Shohei Ohtani (29, SP/DH, Angels): This will be a second straight offseason in which the American League MVP has been free agency’s biggest target. At $360 million, Aaron Judge landed the biggest free agent contract and third largest contract overall when he re-upped with the Yankees last winter. Ohtani will easily exceed that, even though Tommy John surgery will keep him from pitching next year. Without the mound work, Ohtani would still be worth a Judge-like contract; he’d presumably be plenty helpful in the outfield once his elbow recovers. That’s also without considering all of the dollars his mere presence brings in. Given that he should return to the mound in 2025 and hopefully contribute there for at least a few more years, he still seems destined for a $500 million deal. Prediction: 11 years, $550 million
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (25, SP, Japan): Absurdly successful for the Orix Buffaloes, Yamamoto has finished with ERAs of 1.39, 1.68 and 1.16 the last three years. Run scoring is well down in Japan -- the Pacific League hit .241/.309/.354 this year, giving it an OPS slight worse than Oakland’s MLB-worst .669 mark -- but no one else is performing quite like Yamamoto. He throws in the mid-90s, his splitter is excellent and both his curve and cutter should be solid major league offerings. He also just turned 25 in August, and he’s been durable to date. The assumption here is that he’ll be viewed by the majority of teams as the top pitcher available, though the posting fee will cut into his contract; the payout to Orix means the team that signs him will be committing another 16-17% on top of his contract. Prediction: Six years, $180 million (plus $26.4 million posting fee)
3. Aaron Nola (30, SP, Phillies): It was below his usual standards, but Nola’s 2023 was hardly bad, especially after factoring in the 2.35 ERA in four postseason starts. While his regular-season ERA came in at 4.46, both SIERA and xERA put him in the 3.70-3.80 range. Of course, he also has durability working in his favor; he’s third in the majors in innings pitched the last three years and second over the last six years (11 behind Gerrit Cole and 56 ahead of anyone else). He offers a rare certainty from a free agent starter, with the caveat that I might have written something similar about Madison Bumgarner a few years back. Prediction: Eight years, $208 million
4. Cody Bellinger (28, 1B-OF, Cubs): Following a mediocre 2020 and abysmal 2021 and ’22 seasons, Bellinger, the 2019 NL MVP, returned to being an awfully valuable player last season, batting .307/.356/.525 for the Cubs. The way he did it, though, breeds some skepticism. Bellinger posted career-worst barrel and hard-hit rates, with the latter figure (31.4%) ranking 122nd of the 133 batting-title qualifiers. He struck out just 16% of the time, which is a huge improvement over the previous two years, but he posted similar strikeout rates while hitting the ball considerably harder in 2019 and ’20. Although Bellinger still has youth on his side at age 28, it’d be extremely risky to pretend the previous two years didn’t happen and give him a megadeal along the lines of what last winter’s top position players commanded. Prediction: Six years, $168 million
5. Blake Snell (31, SP, Padres): Under most circumstances, a 31-year-old, two-time Cy Young Award winner with no particular durability concerns would seem to be in line for one of the biggest contracts ever given to a pitcher. Snell, however, isn’t exactly typical. In the four seasons in between his Cy Youngs (I’m obviously assuming he’ll win the award this year), he posted a 104 ERA+ while averaging less than five innings per start. And this season actually came with the highest walk rate of his career, a 13.3% mark that easily topped all qualifiers (Charlie Morton was next at 11.6%). Of course, the season also came with an MLB-best 2.25 ERA and a 31.5% strikeout rate that ranked second in the league. He’s had a K rate over 30% each of the last six seasons. It all makes for a fascinating case. Prediction: Five years, $150 million
6. Matt Chapman (30, 3B, Blue Jays): Chapman’s odd 2023 saw him top the majors with a 56% hard-hit rate and collect 57 barrels, yet he finished with just 17 homers. It suggests he was terribly unlucky, but mostly, it was a failure to pull his barrels; of the 31 balls he hit at least 380 feet this year, only four were pulled (all homers). All of his flies to deep-but-not-deep-enough center created a wild spread on his Statcast expected home runs by ballpark; Statcast thinks he would have hit 11 homers playing his 140 games in Kansas City last year, compared to 35 in Cincinnati (it had him at 21 on average). Chapman’s glove remains well above average, and he can certainly be counted on to remain at third base for the duration of his deal. As long as he’s being looked at a No. 5 or No. 6 hitter, rather than as a lineup savior, he should make his next team very happy. Prediction: Six years, $150 million
7. Jordan Montgomery (31, SP, Rangers): Montgomery has made 94 starts with a 3.48 ERA the last three years, so he didn’t need the postseason to ensure that he’d become a very wealthy individual this winter. Still, going 3-0 with a 2.90 ERA in 31 innings for the world champs can’t hurt. The upward trend in his velocity has to come to an end at some point, but he seems like a safe bet to remain an above average starter for the next few years. Prediction: Five years, $135 million
8. Sonny Gray (34, SP, Twins): In the midst of a season that will produce a top-three Cy Young finish, there was some surprising retirement talk swirling around Gray. There’s been nothing since to indicate that there’s any chance of it happening, but perhaps Gray won’t be looking for a particularly lengthy deal as he enters his age-34 campaign. A short-term deal might pay him upwards of $30 million per year, a giant raise for someone whose previous pact guaranteed him $30.5 million for three years. Prediction: Three years, $90 million
9. Josh Hader (29, RP, Padres): A 1.28 ERA is spectacular, but Hader’s walk year didn’t come with any fanfare. It seemed like the only time he got much attention at all was when he declined to enter the Padres’ Sept. 26 game against the Giants in the eighth. Hader was used aggressively (but also often with additional rest in between outings) by the Brewers early in his career when he was making the minimum, and once he had a little more control over things, he became strictly a one-inning guy in 2021. It’s gotten him tagged as selfish, but millions of dollars were at stake in the event of an injury. That will change now that he’s set for his first (and quite possibly only) long-term deal this winter. He’ll probably land the biggest contract ever for a reliever, topping the five-year, $102 million deal Edwin Díaz received last winter. Prediction: Five years, $110 million
10. Eduardo Rodriguez (30, SP, Tigers): Rodriguez’s career-best 3.30 ERA in 26 starts for the Tigers came with unwarranted controversy, since he had the audacity to exercise his contractually negotiated right and turn down a deadline deal that would have put him on the Dodgers. He’ll now likely take advantage of the other big feature of the contract, allowing him to become a free agent two seasons into a five-year, $77 million pact. He’s set to earn $49 million over the next three years, but he’ll have no problem doing considerably better after hitting the market. Prediction: Four years, $100 million
11. Shota Imanaga (30, SP, Japan): Imanaga, who started the WBC championship game against the U.S back in March, is slated to be posted by Yokohama after going 7-4 with a 2.80 ERA and a 174/24 K/BB ratio in 148 innings last season. A southpaw, he throws 90-94 mph, but he has excellent movement on his fastball, and all of his secondary pitches are legit. He projects as a fine middle-of-the-rotation starter in the majors, though the team that signs him will probably want to put him on the Kodai Senga plan and very rarely have him start on four days’ rest. Prediction: Four years, $88 million (plus $11.35 million posting fee)
12. Marcus Stroman (32, SP, Cubs): In spite of a rough second half that saw him miss six weeks due to a rib cartilage fracture, Stroman will almost surely opt out of the last year of his three-year, $71 million deal with the Cubs (because of the way it was structured, he’s set to make $21 million next year after earning $25 million each of the last two). Stroman was among the NL ERA leaders for most of the first three months of last season, finishing June at 2.47, and he’s pretty much the same pitcher now that he was when he signed his last contract after getting hurt and opting out of the remainder of the 2020 season. Prediction: Four years, $84 million
13. Lucas Giolito (29, SP, Guardians): Giolito’s free agent stock took quite a hit after the White Sox traded him, as he went from posting a 3.79 ERA with 20 homers allowed in 121 innings in Chicago to a 6.96 ERA with 21 homers allowed in 63 1/3 innings for the Angels and Guardians. There’d seem to be the benefit of him no longer being eligible for a qualifying offer because of the trade, but taking $20.3 million and attempting to land a far bigger contract next winter (while never being able to be tagged with the qualifying offer again) was a viable option for him. It’s just up to what he wants. His youth, durability and strikeout rate (25.7% in 2023) should ensure that he gets some sizeable three- and maybe four-year offers, even though he’s sporting a 4.89 ERA the last two years. Prediction: Three years, $66 million
14. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (30, OF, Diamondbacks): Gurriel made his first All-Star team, but the bat was again moderately disappointing; he’s posted OPS+s of 109, 114 and 108 the last three years after coming in at 132 in 141 games between 2019 and ’20. On the plus side, he probably deserved the Gold Glove in a weak group of NL left fielders (he fell short of being eligible because he spent much of June and July as a DH). It also might or might not be worthy of note that he’s hit much better as a left fielder (.818 OPS last season, .829 career) than as a DH (.675 OPS last season, .689 in 89 career games). The improved defense makes it worth considering a three-year proposal, even if the bat isn’t much better than average. Prediction: Three years, $60 million
15. Jung Hoo Lee (25, OF, Korea): In spite of a down season in which he was limited to 86 games by a fractured ankle, Lee is expected to be posted this winter. His .318/.406/.455 line for the Kiwoom Heroes was well off from 2022, when he hit .349/.421/.575, and it’s worth wondering whether he’ll be able to put up power numbers in the majors. However, his strong play in center and his contact ability should make him pretty useful. He’s struck out a total of 92 times in 1,558 plate appearances the last three years. Prediction: Four years, $60 million (plus $10.9 million posting fee)
16. Rhys Hoskins (31, 1B, Phillies): Missing his walk year with a torn ACL was a horrible break for Hoskins, but at least he’s entering a very weak market in terms of position players. That his OBP dropped from .366 in his first four seasons to .333 in his last two definitely cuts into his value, but he’s a very reliable bat, and his defense at first base has improved though the years. Prediction: Three years, $54 million
17. Teoscar Hernández (31, OF, Mariners): It seemed obvious that the move to Seattle and Safeco would be bad for Hernández’s numbers, but his splits were still wider than anyone would have guessed; he hit .217/.263/.380 at home and .295/.344/.486 on the road last season. Hernández’s poor defensive reputation is overblown, though now that he’s in his 30s, he probably will start to become an actual liability in the coming years. He might be a bit undervalued on a two-year deal, but anything longer than that would change the calculus. Prediction: Two years, $40 million
18. J.D. Martinez (36, DH, Dodgers): Martinez’s age-35 season saw him trade contact for power, as he hit his most homers (33 in just 113 games) since 2019 and also posted far and away the highest strikeout rate (31.1%) of his career. That doesn’t seem like a great sign for the future -- it suggests that one’s bat is slowing down -- but Martinez is such a smart hitter that he still might have a couple of tricks up his sleeve. Prediction: Two years, $34 million
19. Jordan Hicks (27, RP, Blue Jays): Edging out Julio Urías by a month, Hicks is this winter’s youngest MLB free agent, and he’s probably the No. 2 RP on the board after posting a 3.29 ERA with an 81/32 K/BB ratio in 65 2/3 innings for the Cardinals and Jays. He’s been inconsistent, of course, but the 28% strikeout rate, in combination with an excellent 58% groundball rate, is awfully tantalizing. Prediction: Three years, $42 million
20. Clayton Kershaw (36, SP, Dodgers): It’s obviously getting more difficult by the year, but Kershaw’s 2.46 ERA in 131 2/3 innings was the second lowest mark of anyone to throw 100 innings. In 2022, he came in at 2.28 in 126 1/3 innings. That Kershaw’s 2023 ended so sourly, with him giving up six runs and getting just one out in the NLDS, would seem to make it more likely that he comes back. The Dodgers certainly need him, but the other team he’s considered in the past, his hometown Rangers, could make a play, too. The prediction here calls for the same salary he earned in 2023, but he could easily insist on another $5 million-$10 million if he so desired. Prediction: One year, $20 million
21. Charlie Morton (40, SP, Braves): Even though he’s turning 40, it should be an easy call for the Braves to exercise Morton’s $20 million option. At 39, he was throwing his curveball harder than ever, and he appeared to be on his way to one of his best seasons while going 14-10 with a 3.29 ERA over the first five months. He did fade in September and then went down with a finger injury that sidelined him in the NLDS. Still, he’d get more than $20 million on the open market if he so desired. Prediction: $20 million option exercised
22. Michael Wacha (32, SP, Padres): Wacha’s deal with the Padres includes a two-year, $32 million option that might be exercised. He turned in a second straight successful season in 2023, posting a 3.22 ERA in 24 starts, but he again missed time with shoulder inflammation and his velocity was down. He also had the lowest groundball rate of his career. Wacha hasn’t just not qualified for an ERA title in six years, but he hasn’t even come within 25 innings of doing so. He could keep fastball-changeupping his way to decent results in 20-25 starts, but that doesn’t seem worthy of a lengthy commitment. Prediction: Two years, $30 million
23. Jorge Soler (32, OF, Marlins): Soler can remain with the Marlins for $13 million, but he figures to opt out after hitting .250/.341/.512 with 36 homers last season. He was the first Marlins player to hit 30 homers or slug .500 since Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna did both in 2017. At this point, he’s best utilized as a DH; he can still play the outfield on occasion, but it’s not going to good for anyone if he does so frequently. Prediction: Two years, $30 million
24. Kenta Maeda (35, SP, Twins): Following an ugly April and an eight-week absence due to a triceps strain, Maeda was mostly his old self in 2023, going 6-3 with a 3.39 ERA and a 98/23 K/BB ratio over his final 16 starts. He’s probably not going to make 30 starts next year, but he’ll likely be above average when he’s out there. Prediction: Two years, $30 million
25. Julio Urias (27, SP, Dodgers): Urías concluded last season on administrative leave after being arrested and charged with felony domestic violence in September, and he’s almost certainly going to face a lengthy suspension from MLB. I didn’t think I could leave him off a comprehensive list of free agents, but it seems likely that he’ll go unsigned this winter. Prediction: Unsigned
26. Kyle Hendricks (34, SP, Cubs): All signs point to the Cubs working out something with Hendricks, whether it’s a multiyear deal or just picking up his $16 million option for 2024. That’s really a $14.5 million decision, since the option contains a $1.5 million buyout. $16 million is probably a bit more than Hendricks would command on a longer deal, but after his bounce-back season, it seems like a fine salary for 2024. Prediction: $16 million option exercised. Two years, $28 million, if not.
27. Jeimer Candelario (30, 1B-3B, Cubs): A miserable 2022 (.217/.272/.361) got Candelario non-tendered by the Tigers, but after signing with the Nationals for $5 million, he hit .251/.336/.471 and produced his second three-WAR season in three years. It should lead to a two-year deal in a marketplace short on third basemen. Prediction: Two years, $28 million
28. Luis Severino (30, SP, Yankees): Maybe there are teams out there that would be willing to roll the dice on a modest three-year deal, but the most likely scenario has Severino taking a one-year contract in the hopes of rebuilding his value after a season in which he posted a 6.65 ERA in 89 innings. He hasn’t put in a full year since 2018, though he was quite good when healthy in 2022 (3.18 ERA, 112/30 K/BB in 102 IP). Prediction: One year, $17.5 million
29, Reynaldo López (30, RP, Guardians): López’s first opportunity to close didn’t go well, as he got off to a rocky start while filling in for Liam Hendriks on the White Sox. He was mostly a setup man after posting an 8.76 ERA in April, but he was great for three different teams over the final three months, amassing a 1.13 ERA in his final 32 appearances. It’s quite possible his best days are still ahead of him. Prediction: Three years, $33 million
30. Seth Lugo (34, SP, Padres): Lugo will surely opt out of the second year of his two-year, $15 million contract after putting together a solid campaign in his first full year as a starter; he went 8-7 with a 3.57 ERA for San Diego, only missing time due to a strained calf. He’ll want to remain a starter, but it’s a nice bonus that he can be sent to the pen in October and probably be a weapon there. Prediction: Two years, $26 million
31. James Paxton (35, SP, Red Sox): It seemed like a really bad sign when Paxton exercised a $4 million player option to stay with the Red Sox last winter, but he looked pretty great for three months in his first year back from Tommy John and wound up with a 101/33 K/BB and a respectable 4.50 ERA in 19 starts for a terrible defensive team. He hasn’t put in a relatively full season since 2019, and he’s never made 30 starts, so a multiyear deal seems like a bad idea. Still, he’s a guy you can see starting playoff games if he happens to be healthy at the right time. Prediction: One year, $16 million
32. Justin Turner (39, 1B-3B, Red Sox): Turner’s player option is worth $13.4 million, but it comes with a $6.7 million buyout even if he declines it, which he will surely do. A poor September left Turner with his worst OPS+ since 2012, but 114 is still plenty solid, and it came with a career-high 96 RBI at age 38. He’s probably not an everyday third baseman at this stage of his career, but he can fill in there when needed, and he’s fine at first base. Prediction: One year, $15 million
33. Trevor Bauer (33, SP, Japan): No MLB team thought it was worth the PR hit to bring in Bauer for last season, but it seems unfortunately likely that he’ll get picked up and plugged into some team’s rotation next year. He wound up 10-4 with a 2.76 ERA and a 130/31 K/BB ratio in 130 2/3 innings for Yokohama last season. That’s a quality line, but it needs to be factored in that the Central League as a whole had a 3.19 ERA. Prediction: One year, $15 million
34. Tyler Mahle (29, SP, Twins): Mahle will spend much of next season rehabbing after Tommy John surgery that took place in mid-May, so he’s likely looking at a cheap one-year deal or a modest two-year contract that will get him some additional security. He’s still rather young, and he has a 27% strikeout rate the last four years, so there will be a great deal of interest. Prediction: Two years, $24 million
35. Mitch Garver (33, C, Rangers): Garver won’t be viewed as a full-time catcher this winter, but as someone who can start behind the plate twice per week and DH as much as needed, he’s certainly a valuable player. It’s just a matter of whether he can stay healthy even in that kind of role. Prediction: Two years, $24 million
36. Robert Stephenson (31, RP, Rays): This will be a fun one. After being traded from the Pirates to the Rays on June 2, Stephenson went on to strike out 60 and walk just eight in 38 1/3 innings, amassing a 2.35 ERA along the way. It’s the first time he’d done anything like that, though he was pretty good out of the pen for the Reds in 2019 and the Rockies in 2021. Replacing his old, slower slider with a harder version made all of the difference for him, and he’ll probably have as many suitors as anyone in the league this winter. Prediction: Three years, $30 million
37. Michael Conforto (31, OF, Giants): Conforto can forgo the $18 million he’s due next year from the Giants, but maybe he shouldn’t. After missing 2022 due to shoulder surgery, he wound up with a 99 OPS+ for the Giants, and he didn’t do much to impress defensively in left field. It’s possible he’ll play better in year two, but he looks like a platoon guy at this point. Prediction: Opts in. One year, $14 million, if not
38. Lance Lynn (36, SP, Dodgers): Including his postseason outing against the Diamondbacks, Lynn gave up a whopping 48 homers in 186 innings last season. His velocity slipped a bit, and it became a particularly big problem for a guy who relies so much on his fastball. A modest rebound seems possible, but if not, at least he should soak up innings. Prediction: One year, $14 million
39. Kevin Kiermaier (33, OF, Blue Jays): Kiermaier proved to be a steal after signing for $9 million last season; he looked like he hadn’t lost much at all defensively at age 33 and he posted his high OPS (.741) since 2017 while also staying healthy enough to amass 400 plate appearances for the first time since 2019. He’s still too much of an injury risk to warrant a multiyear pact, but he’s looking at a raise for 2024. Prediction: One year, $14 million
40. Hyun Jin Ryu (37, SP, Blue Jays): Although the velocity wasn’t quite there, Ryu returned from Tommy John in fine form, posting a 3.46 ERA in 11 starts over the final two months. His strikeout rate was a modest 17%, but as per usual, he did a nice job of avoiding hard contact. Health remains a question mark, but he seems like a better option to start a postseason game than most of the guys in his price range. Prediction: One year, $14 million
41. Sean Manaea (32, SP, Giants): Manaea can opt out of his deal with the Giants, which is set to pay him $12.5 million next year. It seemed very likely that he would exit after Gabe Kapler had him stashed in the bullpen for much of last season, but now that his old A’s manager Bob Melvin is running things, he might be more inclined to stick around. Last year’s velocity spike makes him intriguing, even if it didn’t lead to great results (4.44 ERA in 117 2/3 IP). He did finish strong after returning to the rotation in September, posting a 2.25 ERA in four starts. Prediction: One year, $14 million
42. Aroldis Chapman (36, RP, Rangers): Chapman averaged 97.7 mph with his fastball and posted a 27% strikeout rate in his final year with the Yankees. Last season, he was back up to 99.6 mph, his high since 2017, and he struck out 41% of the batters he faced. He was definitely shakier in the postseason, but especially since he’s apparently content in a setup role, one imagines he’ll have some top contenders after him. Prediction: Two years, $22 million
43. Chad Green (32, RP, Blue Jays): Having signed with the Blue Jays during his Tommy John rehab, Green has a complicated option situation. Toronto can keep him for $27 million over three years. If that’s declined, Green has a player option for $6.25 million. If both of those are declined, the Jays also have the option for keeping him at $21 million for two years, though that doesn’t really seem different enough from $27 million for three years to warrant the extra drama. Green’s stuff was intact after Tommy John, though he did wind up with a 5.25 ERA in 12 innings for the Jays. The club option prices seem comparable to what he’d get on the open market. Prediction: Two years, $22 million
44. Michael Lorenzen (32, SP, Phillies): Despite an All-Star appearance for the Tigers and a no-hitter after being traded, Lorenzen finished 2023 back in the bullpen. Still, in spite of the disappointing conclusion, it was a solid showing overall; Lorenzen had a 4.06 ERA in his 25 starts. He threw at least six innings in 14 of those and only twice pitched fewer than five innings. It should be sufficient to land him the first multiyear deal of his career, if he wants to go that route. Prediction: Two years, $21 million
45. Mike Clevinger (33, SP, White Sox): Clevinger’s velocity was better in his second year back from Tommy John, but his slider hasn’t made it all of the way back, and his 19% strikeout rate the last two years is well down from the 28% he averaged from 2017-20. Still, he finished with a fine 3.77 ERA for the White Sox anyway. Prediction: One year, $13 million
46. Hunter Renfroe (32, OF, FA): Renfroe isn’t exactly hitting free agency on a high note; he was part of the Angels’ August purge, and the Reds ended up releasing him after 44 plate appearances in which he hit just .128. Still, this is a player with 80 homers and a 109 OPS+ the last three years. He’s an easy solution to fill a gap in left or right. Prediction: One year, $13 million
47. Nick Martinez (33, SP/RP, Padres): The Padres can keep Martinez for $32 million for the next two years, but that seems a bit excessive. Alternatively, Martinez has a player option that would pay him $16 million for two years (plus a pretty good chance of earning at least $1 million-$2 million in bonuses each season). One would think he could do a little better than that after a pair of seasons in which he combined to post a 3.45 ERA in 19 starts and 91 relief appearances (216 2/3 IP). He also might prefer to go to a team that would guarantee him a chance to start, though the Padres now have plenty of room in the rotation to make that promise themselves. Prediction: Two years, $20 million
48. Josh Bell (31, 1B, Marlins): The Guardians wanted out from under Bell’s $16 million player option, so they sent him to the Marlins at the deadline. Bell performed well enough after the trade (.270/.338/.480, 11 HR in 53 games) to open up the possibility that he could opt out, but it still seems likely that doing so would cost him some money. Prediction: Exercises $16 million option. One year, $12 million, if not
49. Yuki Matsui (28, RP, Japan): One of Japan’s best relievers, Matsui has saved 95 games with a 1.42 ERA and a 214/53 K/BB ratio in 152 innings the last three years. He’s been pitching in the bigs since age 18, so he qualifies for free agency in Japan, meaning no posting fee is required. He’ll probably be signed as a setup man, but he could close again in time. Prediction: Three years, $24 million
50. Michael A. Taylor (33, OF, Twins): Apart from his career year in 2018, Taylor never did better than an 80 OPS+ in any season through age 30. The last two years, though, have seen come in at 90 and 94, which, after factoring in his still well above average defense, is good enough to make him a quality starting center fielder. Perhaps it won’t last -- the spike in his strikeout rate last season is scary -- but even if he fades back into being a fourth outfielder, he’d still be helpful. Prediction: Two years, $18 million
51. Hector Neris (34, RP, Astros): Neris will turn down an $8.5 million player option after a season in which he posted a 1.71 ERA, but it’s concerning that his velocity was down about 1.5 mph and his groundball rate was the second lowest of his career. He also didn’t help himself with three homers and five walks in 8 1/3 innings during the postseason. Prediction: Two years, $18 million
52. Phil Maton (31, RP, Astros): The reliable Maton wound up with a career-best 3.00 despite his velocity being down 1-2 mph last season. The velocity did come back some in the end, and he did his best work in the postseason, pitching six scoreless innings while facing just two batters over the minimum. He still has a middling 4.25 ERA for his career, but given his durability and his 28% strikeout rate the last four years, he seems in line for a two-year deal. Prediction: Two years, $18 million
53. Tim Anderson (30, SS, White Sox): That the White Sox could decline Anderson’s $14 million option for 2024 would have been hard to believe a year ago, but he was maybe the worst regular in baseball last season. The amazing thing about his .592 OPS is that it actually came with a .323 BABIP; it’s really nearly unfathomable. In major league history, the next worst OPS for a guy who had a .320 BABIP and qualified for the batting title was .625 by Bobby Knoop in 1968. Anderson’s defensive numbers also took quite a hit, which had the White Sox looking at moving him to second base. Perhaps the team will pick up the option anyway, but it shouldn’t be a given. Prediction: One year, $11 million
54. Harrison Bader (29, OF, Reds): As a league-average hitter and a Gold Glove-quality defender in center field, Bader amassed 11.7 bWAR in essentially three full seasons of playing time (1,715 PA) for the Cardinals. Unfortunately, he hasn’t really added anything to that since he was traded to the Yankees at the 2022 deadline; he hit .237/.274/.353 in 98 games for the Bombers and then went 5-for-31 down the stretch after being claimed off waivers by the Reds in August. He still deserves to be a starting center fielder somewhere, but given all of his durability issues, he should be looking at a one-year contract. Prediction: One year, $11 million
55. Gary Sánchez (31, C, Padres): Unwanted last winter, Sánchez should be quite a bit more popular this time around after hitting .218/.292/.500 with 19 homers in 72 games for the Padres. He got unusually high marks for his defense, too. It’s probably not going to result in a multiyear deal, but he’s the top starting catcher here. Prediction: One year, $11 million
56. Amed Rosario (28, 2B-SS, Dodgers): An average or maybe slightly above average regular for the Guardians in 2021 and ’22, Rosario slipped last season. The offensive decline wasn’t all that significant, and his exit velocity numbers didn’t change much at all. His play at shortstop, though, became a real problem. The Guardians tried Rosario in the outfield in the past, but it didn’t go very well, and it’s not like his bat would be particularly useful in left. The Dodgers, though, used Rosario at second with surprising success, given his lack of experience at the position. That might be the best spot for him going forward. Prediction: One year, $11 million
57. David Robertson (38, RP, Marlins): Robertson was throwing as hard as ever at age 38, and after a dreadful August for his new team, he struck out 19 in 10 1/3 innings during a strong September. Overall, he came in with a 3.05 ERA and a 78/25 K/BB in 65 1/3 innings. There’s just nothing to suggest that he’s slowing down. Prediction: One year, $11 million
58. Joc Pederson (31, OF, Giants): Pederson’s big 2022 got him a qualifying offer from the Giants, which he gladly took. He’s now looking at a pay cut after making $19.65 million last season, but he still had a reasonable enough 111 OPS+ in a disappointing 2023 and he’s not yet over the hill at age 31. The less a team needs to play him in the field, the better. Prediction: One year, $11 million
59. Andrew Heaney (32, SP, Rangers): The Rangers were justified in sending Heaney to the pen in September, but the reason they were resistant to starting him later that month when it would have made sense was that his player option would have jumped from $13 million to $20 million if he pitched 150 innings last season. As it was, he finished at 147 1/3. He might exercise the option anyway, if he isn’t totally bitter about how that all went down. Prediction: Exercises $13 million option. One year, $11 million, if not
60. Adam Duvall (35, OF, Red Sox): Duvall’s streaky season, which was interrupted by a wrist fracture, produced a fine .834 OPS in 92 games. He shouldn’t be looked at as any everyday option in center again, but he’ll almost certainly get another gig as a starter in a corner. Prediction: One year, $11 million
61. Joe Kelly (35, RP, Dodgers): The Dodgers can keep Kelly for $9.5 million or buy him out for $1 million. It might seem like an excessive amount for a 35-year-old with a 5.07 ERA the last two years, but Kelly’s stuff was legitimately better than ever last season; he averaged a career-high 98.9 mph with his fastball and struck out 36% of the batters he faced. Prediction: $9.5 million option exercised. Two years, $16 million, if not
62. Ryne Stanek (33, RP, Astros): Stanek’s ERA jumped from 1.15 in 2022 to 4.09 in 2023, mostly because he surrendered eight homers after allowing only two the previous season. His 96-100 mph fastball is intact and he can probably be counted on to be useful as the third or fourth right-hander in a pen. However, he’s never really been asked to be more than that. Prediction: Two years, $16 million
Prediction: One year, $10 million
63. Mark Canha (35, OF, Brewers): The Brewers hold $11.5 million club option with a $2 million buyout. Canha’s OBP still might make him worth that much, even if his defense and his power are on the decline. Hit .262/.355/.400 in 507 PA last season.
64. Frankie Montas (31, SP, Yankees): Montas returned from shoulder surgery to make one appearance at the very end of the year. A very good starter for the A’s in 2021 and the first half of 2022, he offers plenty of upside if he’s right.
65. Jack Flaherty (28, SP, Orioles): 4.99 ERA, 148/66 K/BB in 144 IP for St. Louis and Baltimore. Someone might go higher and hope for the best, but besides his youth, there really isn’t much here to be encouraged about.
66. Wade Miley (37, SP, Brewers): Durability is becoming a bigger and bigger issue, but Miley has a 3.26 ERA in 59 starts the last three years. The Brewers share a $10 million mutual option with the left-hander.
67. Craig Kimbrel (35, RP, Phillies): The ending will sour some on Kimbrel yet again, but the 35-year-old bounced back with a 3.26 ERA and a 34% K rate during the regular season. He’ll likely close somewhere.
68. Brandon Belt (35, 1B, Blue Jays): Belt ought to be platooned and at least occasionally DH’d in an effort to keep him healthy, but he managed to hit .254/.369/.490 in 103 games for the Blue Jays.
69. Kyle Gibson (36, SP, Orioles): Career-high 15 wins to go along with 4.73 ERA in 192 IP. Gibson should be obsolete in Baltimore now, but his ability to eat innings will be needed elsewhere.
Prediction: One year, $9 million
70. Whit Merrifield (35, 2B-OF, Blue Jays): .272/.318/.382 isn’t too bad, but Merrifield’s line came with less exit velocity and more strikeouts than in previous seasons. He should be viewed as a utilityman at this point.
71. Tommy Pham (36, OF, D-backs): Batting.256/.328/.446 with 16 HR and 22 SB, Pham put together his best season since 2019 and got quite a reputation boost during Arizona’s World Series run. After opening 2023 on the short side of a platoon, he’ll likely be a signed as a starter this winter.
72. Eddie Rosario (32, OF, Braves): .255/.305/.450 in 516 PA. The Braves can keep Rosario for $9 million, but they might eventually want Vaughn Grissom in left field instead.
Prediction: Two years, $14 million
73. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (29, INF-OF, Yankees): Trading contact for power didn’t work out for Kiner-Falefa last season (he hit .242/.306/.340), but it did lead to some mildly intriguing exit velocity numbers (39% hard-hit rate). Even if nothing comes of it, his versatility will still make him helpful.
Prediction: One year, $8 million
74. Gio Urshela (32, 3B, Angels): If he’s able to overcome hip surgery that cost him more than half of last season, Urshela should be a fine stopgap at third base for some team. .281/.323/.415 the last three years.
75. Alex Cobb (36, SP, Giants): Cobb’s $10 million option (with a $2 million buyout) seemed like a shoo-in to be picked up, but now it looks like he’ll miss at least the first month following hip surgery.
76. Carlos Santana (37, 1B, Brewers): The elimination of the shift helped Santana post his best OPS since 2019, but .747 (103 OPS+) still falls short of what a team should be looking for from first base. On the plus side, his defense is somehow better in his upper 30s than it was five or 10 years ago.
77. Michael Brantley (36, OF, Astros): Missed almost all year due to shoulder problems and then struck out a total of two times in 54 regular-season at-bats. Brantley probably won’t be able to hold up as anything close to a regular left fielder, but there will surely be several contenders interested in bringing him in.
78. Martin Pérez (32, SP, Rangers): The cutter that led to a big 2022 failed Pérez last season, and he was 8-4 with a 4.98 ERA when the Rangers sent him to the pen after four months. He’ll likely be another team’s fourth or fifth starter next year.
79. Joey Votto (40, 1B, Reds): Votto wants to give it another go at age 40 after being limited to 65 games and hitting .202/.314/.433 in 2023. It’d be a shame if he had to leave Cincy to make it happen.
Prediction: Two years, $12 million
80. Victor Caratini (30, C, Brewers): .259/.327/.383 in 226 PA for Milwaukee. Primarily a backup thus far in his career, Caratini would likely be a pretty solid starter for a couple of years if given the chance.
81. Liam Hendriks (35, RP, White Sox): Hendriks underwent Tommy John on Aug. 2, making a September return the best-case scenario.
Prediction: One year, $7.5 million
82. Jason Heyward (34, OF, Dodgers): .269/.340/.473 in 377 PA. Heyward’s turnaround with the Dodgers was more stunning than that of the guy he traded places with.
83. Alex Wood (33, SP, Giants): Wood’s stuff wasn’t very good for much of the summer, but he finished strong, picking up a little velocity along the way. Overall, he had a 4.33 ERA in 12 starts and 17 relief appearances.
84. Wandy Peralta (32, RP, Yankees): Peripherals were off last season, and he finished up on the IL with a triceps strain, so a multiyear deal doesn’t seem like a good idea. Still, Peralta has a 2.96 ERA in 161 innings the last three years.
Prediction: One year, $7 million
85. Jakob Junis (31, SP-RP, Giants): It’d still be interesting to see what Junis could do as a short reliever. He was more of a long man last season, but his velocity took off anyway, and he mustered a 26% strikeout rate and a 3.87 ERA in 86 innings.
86. Matt Moore (34, RP, FA): Moore followed up his 1.95 ERA in 74 IP in 2022 by coming in at 2.56 in 53 IP last season. Hopefully, he’ll get signed by a legitimate contender this time around.
87. Aaron Hicks (34, OF, Orioles): .278/.381/.425 in 236 PA after being picked up by Baltimore. While the $7 million projection is the guess for what he’d get under normal circumstances, Hicks will actually be signing for the minimum, since he’s going to be paid $9.5 million (minus the minimum) by the Yankees.
88. Emilio Pagán (32, RP, Twins): 2.99 ERA in 69 innings made him quite valuable to the Twins. Was pretty lucky to allow just five homers after being unfortunate there the previous two years.
89. Andrew McCutchen (37, OF, Pirates): .256/.378/.397 in 112 games before going down with a partially torn Achilles. McCutchen’s 45% hard-hit rate was actually his highest mark of the Statcast era (since 2015). He’s definitely more of a DH than an outfielder now, but who wouldn’t want him around?
90. Adam Ottavino (38, RP, Mets): $6.75 million player option, though much of that would be deferred. Down 1.5 mph across the board at age 37. 3.21 ERA anyway, but drop in strikeout rate doesn’t bode well.
Prediction: One year, $6 million
91. Adam Frazier (32, 2B-OF, Orioles): .240/.300/.396 in 455 PA. Orioles were aggressive in pursuing him last season, but platoon second baseman isn’t a tough role to fill.
92. Enrique Hernández (32, INF-OF, Dodgers): Improved to .262/.308/.423 in 185 PA with Dodgers after poor year and a half with Red Sox. He’s great to have on the roster, but he shouldn’t be looked at as a regular.
93. Kirby Yates (37, RP, Braves): Put in full season with 3.28 ERA, and 80 K in 60 IP after nearly three lost years. Braves can keep for $5.75 million and probably will.
94. C.J. Cron (34, 1B, Angels): Dealt with back problems and finished badly with Angels after decent first half with Rockies. 112 OPS+ over last three years.
Prediction: Two years, $8 million
95. Naoyuki Uwasawa (30, SP, Japan): Uwasawa will be posted by the Nippon Ham Fighters after going 9-9 with a 2.96 ERA and a 124/41 K/BB in 170 innings at age 29. Fringy stuff could make him a swingman in the majors.
Prediction: One year, $5 million
96. Ryan Brasier (36, RP, Dodgers): Braiser’s new cutter helped produce a 0.70 ERA in 38 2/3 innings with the Dodgers after he was let go by Boston.
97. Joey Gallo (30, 1B-OF, Twins): Despite a .177 average, Gallo did manage a 101 OPS+ in 111 games before a foot contusion ended his season. He’s still just 30, but with his defense seemingly in decline, he’s entering last-chance territory.
98. Chris Stratton (33, RP, Rangers): Threw 82 2/3 innings in relief with a respectable 3.92 ERA for the Cardinals and Rangers. It’s pretty helpful to have someone who can go 2+ innings in blowouts and still hold his own in the close ones.
99. Brent Suter (34, RP, Brewers): It looked like Suter was starting to lose it in 2022, but he had a great season for the Rockies after the Brewers let him go. 3.36 ERA in 241 IP since 2020.
Prediction: One year, $4.5 million
100. Donovan Solano (36, INF, Twins): .282/.369/.391 in 450 PA for Twins. The glove is in decline and he’s no longer a semi-regular option at second, but the bat is awfully solid.
101. John Brebbia (33, RP, Giants): Finished poorly after 2 ½-month absence due to lat strain, but 29% K rate in 38 IP. 3.47 ERA in 106 IP over the last two years.
102. Collin McHugh (36, RP, Braves): Lone down year (4.30 ERA in 59 IP) in last three didn’t come with any velocity loss. 2.77 ERA in 192 IP since 2021.
103. Will Smith (34, RP, Rangers): 22 saves, 3.14 ERA through Aug. 11 before turning into a non-factor late. Guaranteed World Series victory for signing team should count for something.
104. Martin Maldonado (37, C, Astros): .191/.258/.348 in 407 PA. While it’s definitely time that Maldonado transitions back into a reserve role, his leadership will be valued.
Prediction: One year, $4 million
105. Keynan Middleton (30, RP, Yankees): Middleton looked really impressive at times last season and finished with a 3.38 ERA in 51 IP. 30% strikeout rate and 57% groundball rate makes for quite a combination.
106. Garrett Cooper (33, 1B, Padres): Durability is forever an issue, but Cooper has hit .262/.333/.427 for a 109 OPS+ in 313 games the last three years.
107. Randal Grichuk (32, OF, Angels): Like so many others, Grichuk faded after joining the Angels last season, finishing at .267/.321/.459 for the year. A thrifty team might look at him as a regular.
108. Shintaro Fujinami (29, RP, Orioles): There were some flashes of real potential after Fujinami joined the Orioles as a reliever, though the end result was a 4.85 ERA in 29 2/3 innings. Others will be interested in seeing what they can do with his high-90s fastball, assuming that he’s content to remain a reliever.
109. Zack Greinke (40, SP, Royals): 5.06 ERA in 142 IP. The Royals would likely offer Greinke some guaranteed money to come back. If he wants to take his chances with a better team, he might have to settle for a minor league deal.
110. Tom Murphy (32, C, Mariners): Murphy has been plagued by injuries, but he was incredibly effective when healthy last season, hitting .290/.335/.538 in 159 PA.
111. Shelby Miller (33, RP, Dodgers): His peripherals weren’t as impressive, but Miller managed a 1.71 ERA in 42 IP while healthy for the Dodgers.
Next 25
Joey Wendle, David Peralta, Evan Longoira, Jean Segura, Andrew Chafin, Daniel Hudson, Blake Treinen, Kolten Wong, Austin Hedges, Carlos Carrasco, Jake Diekman, Dylan Floro, Elvis Andrus, Tony Kemp, Josh Donaldson, Robbie Grossman, Jurickson Profar, Johnny Cueto, Rich Hill, Noah Syndergaard, Vince Velasquez, Matt Barnes, Chris Devenski, Luis Garcia (RP)
