2024 Opening Day predictions: Can Detroit Tigers finally claim the AL Central title?

Hope springs eternal as the Detroit Tigers take the field in Chicago for MLB Opening Day, as every team is 0-0 (well, except for the LA Dodgers and San Diego Padres, who are 1-1 after opening last week in South Korea) and dreaming of a magical run to the postseason.

That includes the Tigers, whose 2023 featured the franchise’s best record (78-84) since 2016 as well as the team’s first second-place finish in the AL Central since then. Can the Tigers overtake the Minnesota Twins for an October to remember? Will Tarik Skubal dominate the league en route to a Cy Young nod? Will Colt Keith deliver on the $28 million the Tigers guaranteed him without an MLB at-bat?

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Five Free Press sports writers tacked these questions in making some predictions for the upcoming season. Will any of them be right? Read on to find out …

How many games will the Tigers win?

Ford: 84. The Tigers might have a tough time repeating their 2023 feat of winning the season series against each of the four other AL Central squads (resulting in a 35-17 record in the division) … but they CAN’T do worse than their 7-25 record against the AL Beast, er, East. (Especially since they don’t face an AL East team till April 22.)

Monarrez: 80. That’s a two-win improvement, but don’t hold me to it if A.J. Hinch authors his usual slow start. He has a paltry .338 winning percentage (25-49) in March and April in his first three seasons managing the Tigers.

Petzold: 83. It's a five-win improvement from last season, thanks to the removal of below-average players. The most obvious example: The designated hitter spot has been relieved of a, uh, singular below-average producer, which will automatically improve the offense, in exchange for a rotating group. The pitching staff should be stable enough to keep games close as the young hitters mature at the highest level.

Seidel: 86. Two years ago, the Tigers won 66 games. Last year, they won 78. And Vegas projects they will be somewhere between 80-82 this season. But I truly believe this roster has improved, the pitching staff is strong and the youngsters will continue to grow under A.J. Hinch. So I’m gonna go for another big leap.

Windsor: 87. Why not? The pitching looks promising. They’ve got an ace in Tarik Skubal.

Will the Tigers win the AL Central?

Ford: Not quite (by two games). The heart says yes, but the head (which is where the eyes are) says they still don’t have enough offense. The Twins have the hitting but don’t have enough pitching, but they’re still the champs and 86 wins is probably enough to defend that. The Cleveland Guardians don’t have enough of either (unless Shane Bieber can start three times a week). And the Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox … Bwahahahahahahahahaha. No.

Monarrez: No. A slightly better pitching staff isn’t enough to offset what should be another meager offensive season. The Twins and Guardians should battle it at the end to win another weak division.

Petzold: No. The Twins beat out the Tigers in 2023, and the same will happen in 2024. The Tigers have more pitching depth than the Twins, but the Twins have a deeper offense as long as their top players — Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis — stay health. The Tigers might regret not acquiring another big bat in the offseason.

Seidel: Yes. But that’s not saying a lot. The Twins are the overwhelming favorites to win this weak division, but they are dealing with several injuries. Obviously, it happens to all teams. But the Tigers have some depth in Toledo to mitigate it — both arms and bats who are pushing for Detroit.

Windsor: Yes. It’s the Central Division — not a high bar to clear.

Who will be the Tigers’ breakout player in 2024?

Ford: Reese Olson. Overshadowed by Tarik Skubal’s AL Pitcher of the Month nod in September was the rookie righty, who posted 25 strikeouts and nine walks in 31⅓  innings in the final month. (Skubal had 43 and four in 30 innings, so it wasn’t undeserved, but still …) There’s a reason Matt Manning, and not Olson, is starting the season in Toledo.

Monarrez: Tarik Skubal will be the guy (if healthy). The lefty looked great this spring after returning from flexor-tendon surgery in July and posting a 2.80 ERA with 14 walks and 102 strikeouts in 80⅓ innings. If he pitches to his capability, he could be in the Cy Young mix.

Petzold: Parker Meadows. The center fielder is already an elite defender and an elite baserunner, but if he hits around .250 with power while maintaining his already above-average walk rate, he will be considered one of the best center fielders in baseball by the end of the season. He could even surprise with some AL Rookie of the Year votes.

Seidel: Parker Meadows. Oh, this is hard. Part of me wants to say Ty Madden or Brant Hurter — but they won’t arrive until later in the summer. Part of me wants to go with Riley Greene — he’s going to break into All-Star level. But I’ll go with Meadows, who will make a tremendous impact defensively. He’ll provide enough offense — and speed on the bases — to make a huge difference.

Windsor: Parker Meadows. The center fielder had a good spring. Let’s go with the promising youngster.

Who will be the Tigers’ All-Star selection?

Ford: Andrew Chafin. It’s tough to argue with the Cy Young case for Skubal … but let’s go with another lefty: Chafin, who responded to last season’s 4.73 ERA with an offseason workout plan and eight strikeouts and no walks in 5⅓ innings this spring.

Monarrez: It should be Spencer Torkelson, if he can warm up a little faster than he did last year on his way to 31 homers. But it’ll probably be Skubal, since the game always needs more arms.

Petzold: Tarik Skubal. The Tigers have a few players with unproven All-Star-caliber upside on offense, but there's no doubt Skubal — the Opening Day starter and the ace of the rotation — is the most likely to be the All-Star selection. Just look at how he finished last season: 0.90 ERA with four walks and 43 strikeouts across 30 innings in five starts in September, winning AL Pitcher of the Month.

Seidel: Tarik Skubal. The lefty is poised for an incredible season. I’m talking All-Star level. I’m talking Cy Young level. Skubal has the right mentality to handle the pressure, the right internal drive to never be satisfied and the stuff that can dominate.

Windsor: Tarik Skubal. The lefty is ready for his moment.

What will Colt Keith hit in his rookie season?

Ford: The early predictions have Keith — who’s still just 22 — hitting about .260 with 16-18 homers. We’ve done this dance before with Tigers prospects, at least in their first season, so let’s dial it down a bit: .245 and 15 homers … but 14 of the homers come after May 1.

Monarrez: Most models predict something in the neighborhood of .255/.320/.430 with a .745 OPS., 16 homers and 60 RBIs. That’s great, but only if that six-year, $28 million contract in his back pocket — and all its expectations —doesn’t weigh him down.

Petzold: Keith, one of the top prospects in baseball, will hit .275 as the everyday second baseman, and to take this prediction a step further, he will hit more than 20 home runs. If he achieves those marks, Keith will be in the mix for AL Rookie of the Year. Three other players — Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter and Jackson Holliday — have better odds, but Keith is the best all-around hitting prospect the Tigers have had in a long time. He will hit in the big leagues.

Seidel: First of all, it’s going to be up and down. He will have struggles, which are natural. And he’ll need to make adjustments along the way. But when the season ends, we will look up and say: Man, that was a fantastic start. This kid can just flat-out hit. He has the ability to go yard, but also hit for average. So I’ll say 18 homers and .265.

Windsor:  .265.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers 2024 predictions: Who will win the AL Central title?