2024 NBA mock drafts, March update: First-round projections for Rockets

Reed Sheppard has earned a high-floor, low-ceiling label, which will look more attractive in a draft that’s lacking high-ceiling prospects.

While he occasionally fades into the background of Kentucky’s deep offense, he’s been more aggressive over the past month, and it’s illuminated some encouraging creation ability into drives and pull-ups. Showing he has some burst to blow by and the ability to knock down dribble jumpers help scouts picture more upside than just a connector.

Regardless, there will be widespread interest in Sheppard’s shooting, passing and defensive instincts, all of which have looked extremely convincing.

At 6-foot-9 with a wingspan reportedly over 7-foot at just 18 years old, France offers another intriguing prospect with Tidjane Salaun. While he doesn’t have much of a jumper off the dribble yet, his ability to shoot off the catch in the top-tier French league makes him a prospect teams won’t want to ignore at this stage in his development process.

Sheppard’s brilliance has been captured by statistics all year. He currently has the eighth-highest freshman BPM since 2008, with the names ahead of him being Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, Michael Beasley, Kevin Love, Chet Holmgren, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Evan Mobley. Of course, it doesn’t take fancy stats to realize Sheppard is very, very good at basketball. It jumps off the screen every time you watch him play.

Sheppard just might be a special shooter. Right now, he’s making 51.4% of his threes on 105 attempts, 80.8% of his free throws, and 66.7% of his shots at the rim. He’ll mostly slide into an off-ball role in the league, making quick shoot-or-pass decisions ideally next to a bigger initiator. He’s also shown some ability to make plays off the bounce and hit pull-up jumpers as a secondary creator.

Another fun part of Sheppard’s game is his hit-ahead passing. He’s a good defensive rebounder for a guard, and always has his eyes up looking for an outlet pass. Defensively, Sheppard is capable of some amazing moments: he has impossibly quick and strong hands to generate steals and deflections, and he does well to fight over screens. At 6’2 with a 6’3 wingspan, though, he is sometimes just too small in certain matchups.

Salaun is demonstrating encouraging proficiency as a 3-point shooter overseas, suggesting his floor would be as a rotational 3-and-D wing. If the flashes he’s shown as an attacker and finisher translate to the next level, then he could be a dynamic NBA playmaker.

Reed Sheppard recently exploded for 32 points and hit a game-winning shot on Feb. 27 and it was just another chapter in a remarkable campaign. Still shooting better than 50.0% on 3-pointers, he is statistically enjoying one of the best freshman seasons since 2008.

While he is a complicated evaluation because he is a bit undersized listed at 6-foot-3, Sheppard clearly contributes to winning. Kentucky’s net rating is a whopping 32.6 points per 100 possessions higher with the freshman on the court relative to when he is off, per CBB Analytics, which ranks in the 99th percentile.

Any team looking for a solid two-way wing who can contribute on both sides of the ball will have Baylor’s Ja’Kobe Walter high on their draft boards. Although he has slowed down after enjoying a hot start to his freshman season, scouts still rave about his maturity both on and off the court. Walter doesn’t need the offense to run through him to make a difference, scoring well on his catch-and-shoot opportunities and movement actions.

Walter has been a bit up and down this season, averaging 14.5 points and 4.5 rebounds per game. A lot of his struggles have to do with his inconsistent shooting. Walter has always been known as a solid marksman going back to high school, but he’s made just 32.9% of his 3s so far this season and just 25% in his last 11 games. If that part of his game turns around as expected, Walter is a good investment. He’s an athletic, 6-5 wing who can be run off movement into tough shots. He rarely makes mistakes, has strong feel for the game and plays well within a team concept.

There’s a split about Walter’s overall upside. Most scouts don’t see him as a star, but they disagree on whether he’s a starter long-term or more of a rotation player. Evaluators who believe he’s closer to the latter, such as a few team scouts, may have him more in the No. 15 range. Those who buy into his shooting and think he can improve his shaky defense could even see him landing in the top six. This ranking splits the difference.

Salaun is another one of those bigger wing/forward type of prospects who has perimeter skill. With terrific positional size and skill at 6-foot-9, Salaun has been productive this season in the French League and Basketball Champions League, averaging 9.4 points and 3.5 rebounds while shooting 37% from behind the 3-point line. He has a smooth-looking stroke that looks like it’ll have no issue translating out to NBA range, and he can attack the glass on cuts and straight-line drives to get to the rim.

I’m a bit lower on him right now, though, because I have some worries about his overall feel for the game. I also think that, right now, he’s a bit more forward than true wing athletically, which could hinder his positional flexibility. But he’s extremely young and has all the time in the world to be able to figure out the feel for the game question. Teams are very interested and see him as a real option starting in the back half of the lottery right now.

Sheppard’s production as a freshman for Kentucky has been impressive all season long. He has great instincts on defense, averaging just under three steals per game, and can play on or off the ball offensively. He isn’t afraid to step into long 3s and has become a great passer when getting downhill, dishing out 4.1 assists per game in 28 minutes.