2024 bracketology: Michigan State, Oakland basketball projected to make NCAA tournament

There are 40 days remaining until selection Sunday for the 2024 NCAA men's basketball tournament, and Michigan State basketball is projected to extend its streak of making the tournament.

Michigan basketball, however, is poised to miss the big dance for the second year in a row, and faces big picture questions about its future.

The Spartans have won five of six to move to 14-8 on the season and 6-5 in Big Ten play, helping move them further toward the right side of the March Madness bubble heading into the final month of the regular season.

MSU had sky high expectations coming into the season ranked in the top five in both polls, but struggled to find its footing early. The Spartans dropped early nonconference games to James Madison, Duke and Arizona — all of which have spent time this season in the top 25 — then lost two Big Ten games in early December to Wisconsin and Nebraska to fall to 4-5 overall. The Spartans rebounded with a blowout win over then-No. 6 Baylor and closed their nonconference schedule with four straight wins.

Michigan State lost two of its first three games during the uninterrupted portion of the Big Ten schedule, leaving it with a 9-7 record and 1-4 conference record in early January, leading to some doubt whether coach Tom Izzo's 25-tournament streak, which dates to 1998, would be in jeopardy.

Since then, MSU has been able to turn things around with five wins over the next six games, the only loss coming on the road to No. 10 Wisconsin.

Michigan State is tied with Northwestern in fourth place in the conference, and bracketologists are confidently predicting a 26th straight March Madness trip for Tom Izzo's squad.

Down the road in Ann Arbor, the outlook for this season and future is bleak. Barring a late-season run securing an automatic bid through next month's Big Ten tournament in Minneapolis, Michigan is projected to be on the outside for the second straight year, which would mark the first time since 2007-08 it will miss the NCAA tourney for consecutive seasons.

The Wolverines, No. 111 in the NET rankings, are 7-15 and in the basement of the Big Ten with a 2-9 record. Juwan Howard's squad has lost 10 of 11 games, with a jarring number of late-game collapses that had the coach threatening to play walk-ons Saturday after a crumble vs. Rutgers.

Meanwhile, Oakland is projected to make the tournament as an automatic qualifier out of the Horizon League by some bracketologists. The Golden Grizzlies (15-9, 10-3) are tied for first place in the conference with Green Bay. The Horizon League is projected to be a one-bid league, so Oakland will need to win the conference tournament, which starts at campus sites on March 5 and wraps up in Indianapolis on March 12, to secure its first trip since 2011.

Here is a look at where bracketologists are projecting Michigan State and Oakland, with a month left in the regular season.

MORE: Tom Izzo wants Michigan State to show same grit at Minnesota as he did 47 years ago

Michigan State & Oakland NCAA tournament projections

• USA TODAY's bracketologist team has Michigan State as an 8-seed in the West region entering Tuesday ahead of its late game at Minnesota. MSU is projected to play 9-seed Boise State, another at-large team, in the first round in Memphis. Houston is the projected 1-seed in that region. If MSU were to make it through the first two rounds, the Sweet 16 would be played in Los Angeles.

• USA TODAY does not project Oakland to make the tournament, instead slotting Green Bay in as the automatic qualifier with a 16-seed in the Midwest region playing Purdue. The bracketologists project six Big Ten teams and list Washington State, Gonzaga, Florida and Colorado as the first four teams out.

• Perhaps the most famous bracketologist, ESPN's Joe Lunardi, has Michigan State listed as the 7-seed in the East region in his updated bracket projection from Monday. MSU would be playing in Omaha against 10-seed Texas A&M, one of the teams on the bubble under "last four byes," with a chance to play No. 2 seed Kansas or No. 15 seed Colgate in the round of 32. If MSU made it to the Sweet 16, the game would be played in Boston.

• Lunardi has Oakland in his field of 68 as the automatic qualifier out of the Horizon League, projecting the Golden Grizzlies as the No. 15 seed in the South region with a matchup against 2-seed Marquette in Indianapolis in the first round. If Oakland becomes the 12th No. 15 seed in tournament history to secure a first-round upset, it would play the winner of Texas-Mississippi State, the 7-10 matchup, in the second round.

• CBS bracketologist Jerry Palm doesn't think MSU has as much security, with the Spartans listed as one of his last four teams in, playing in the First Four matchups in Dayton as a No. 11 seed. MSU is his highest team in the "last four in" group, projected to play New Mexico. If MSU were to win that game, it would play No. 6 seed Clemson in the first round in Pittsburgh in the West region. The potential round of 32 matchup would be against either South Carolina or Drexel in the 3-14 matchup.

• Palm also has Oakland in his tournament field via auto-bid. He projected Oakland as the No. 15 seed in the East region (with second-weekend games in Boston), playing No. 2 seed Kansas in the first round in Omaha. If Oakland manages the upset, the winner of Boise State and St. John's in the 7-10 matchup would await.

• Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller has MSU as the No. 8 seed in the West region, playing No. 9 seed New Mexico in the first round in Charlotte. If Michigan State advances to the second round, it would likely see No. 1 seed North Carolina.

• Oakland, listed as the 59th overall team in Bleacher Report's projected field, is the No. 15 seed in the Midwest region, which will play its Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games here in Detroit at Little Caesars Arena. Tennessee is Oakland's projected opponent as the No. 2 seed and the first-round game would be played in Charlotte. Colorado State-Butler is the 7-10 matchup.

• Fox Sports' Mike DeCourcy has Michigan State just above the final four teams in as an 11-seed in the South region (with second-weekend games in Dallas). The Spartans' first-round opponent is 6-seed Oklahoma, with no location listed, and would play the winner of Creighton-Louisiana Tech (3-14 game) in the second round if they were to advance.

• DeCourcy has Oakland listed as the No. 15 seed in the East region, playing No. 2 seed Wisconsin in the first round. The projected 7-10 matchup in the bracket is TCU-Boise State.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan State & Oakland basketball projected in 2024 NCAA tournament