2023 Rookie Quarterback Review: C.J. Stroud breaks records

With the 2023 season entirely in the books, it's time to look back at the rookie class of quarterbacks and see how they stack up against previous freshmen. For a more detailed description of what I mean when I reference a player’s production as a percentile (i.e., Charbonnet finished below the 50th percentile in yards), check out Part One of my running back breakdown. The short story is that it measures players against previous rookie seasons with similar draft capital. Higher numbers are better.

Bryce Young, Panthers

After an offseason of debate and shifting odds, the Panthers took the podium on draft night and made Alabama’s Bryce Young the savior of their franchise. His size disadvantage aside, Young was a prototype quarterback coming out of Bama, working well within structure, hitting throws at all levels, and handling pressure well. When he stopped on the field in Charlotte, Panthers fans saw a different player. Young was held under 250 yards in all but one game and only threw multiple touchdowns twice. He took 62 sacks and led the league in yards lost via sacks. The biggest shock from Young’s rookie season was his poor decision-making. He was one of the best decision-makers in college and turned into Josh Rosen at the next level.

That was Young’s first interception of the season. He would go on to throw a nearly identical pick later in the same game. Young also had the eighth-highest pressure rate and the fourth-highest pressure-to-sack rate, both of which a quarterback has some control over. He finished well below the 20th percentile in ANY/A—this is just yards per attempt with bonuses for touchdowns and penalties for sacks and interceptions—among all drafted quarterbacks since 2000. Among the 30 quarterbacks that attempted at least 300 passes in 2023, Pro Football Focus graded him as their No. 29 passer. Young finished the year ranked 22nd in completion percent over expected.

A few things are going in his favor heading into year two. The first is that his team was poorly coached and lacked talent around him in his rookie season. For a team with PFF’s No. 27 pass-blocking unit in the trenches, it was somewhere between frustrating and comical to see Frank Reich dial up slow-developing plays that made no effort to utilize the entirety of the field.

The advanced data also backs up the idea that Young needed more talent around him. ESPN’s player tracking data ranked Adam Thielen 38th in Open Score while no other Panther cracked the top 100. The Panthers have already brought in Dave Canales as their next head coach, greatly improving the scheme Young will be working within. Canales played a significant role in Geno Smith’s breakout campaign before overseeing a similar career turnaround from Baker Mayfield. Carolina will likely add pass-catching talent as well, though that change won’t be as drastic given that they sent their 2024 first-round pick to Chicago to acquire Bryce Young.

The second bit of good news for Young is as bad as he was as a rookie, other quarterbacks have come back from worse debuts. Alex Smith, Eli Manning, and Jared Goff all fared worse than Young in both counting and efficiency stats. On the other hand, of the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks in 2023, six finished their rookie season above the 78th in passing efficiency. All six of those quarterbacks were above the 86th percentile in fantasy points per game. Two quarterbacks didn’t play enough games to qualify for these stats and the other two—Goff and Josh Allen—struggled efficiency-wise as rookies. Putting up weak numbers as a rookie isn’t a death sentence, but it puts you behind the eight-ball in a meaningful way. I’d bet on Young to rebound in 2024, though I’m not sure I see him ever being a game-changing quarterback for real-life or fantasy purposes.

C.J. Stroud, Texans

Even though the Texans weren’t guaranteed their top pick of the quarterbacks, the No. 2 pick in the draft turned out to be a franchise-defining selection for a Houston team that was looking to rebound from a stunning end to the Deshaun Watson era. Stroud got off to a blistering start, throwing for 2,270 yards, 14 touchdowns, and one interception in his first eight games. Though his pace would slow a bit and a concussion eventually knocked him out for two games, Stroud ultimately closed the year as the league leader in yards per game (274) and touchdown to interception ratio (4.6). He is the first rookie to pace the NFL in either stat in the modern era. Stroud passed the numbers test and aced the eye test, grading out as Pro Football Focus’s No. 14 quarterback by passing grade.

Stroud posted the third-best season by ANY/A for a rookie since 2000 and finished in the 89th percentile in fantasy points per game. Things could have gone even better for him in a number of ways. He lost breakout rookie Tank Dell for the final six games of the year. Nico Collins blew up in his third season and missed two games. Robert Woods, Noah Brown, and Dalton Schultz all missed time as well. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik—now a rising star in the coaching ranks—also took two months to take the training wheels off Stroud.

Despite interviewing for head coaching gigs, Slowik is staying in Houston for another year. Quarterbacks coach Jerrod Johnson is also set to stay in town. It’s wheels up for Stroud in his second season and the only question is how high to rank him. After Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts is a good starting place. Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert are in the conversation, but there’s a strong argument to be made for Stroud to take the final spot among the top five in both redraft and dynasty rankings.

Anthony Richardson, Colts

We didn’t see much of the No. 4 overall pick in his first NFL season. Richardson started four games and only took every snap in one appearance. A shoulder injury knocked him out for the season. From a fantasy perspective, Richardson was better than advertised. In what was well under three games of playing time, Richardson ran 25 times for 136 yards and four touchdowns. He finished as a top-five fantasy option in the two starts that saw him last more than a third of the game. Had he played a full season of football, we would likely be talking about him as a top-five fantasy option.

On the other hand, Richardson still has a long way to go as a passer. PFF charted 53 quarterbacks with at least 75 dropbacks. Richardson ranked 41st in passing grade. He also struggled when adjusting for his target depth, earning a -7.7 percent CPOE. That put him between Jets quarterbacks Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian. The areas where he struggled are the exact same areas that gave him fits in college. He ranked outside of the top 30 quarterbacks in completion rate on short and intermediate throws. Richardson did, however, reach 24th in completion percent and 15th in PFF passing grade on deep throws (on just an eight-attempt minimum).

From a redraft perspective, I’m buying Anthony Richardson. He led the league in fantasy points per dropback and plays on a well-coached offense that ushered in the fantasy dominance of Jalen Hurts. He’s also just 21 years old. That’s younger than Caleb Williams and significantly younger than Jayden Daniels. He’s already proven to be elite as a rusher and has time to develop in a good system as a passer. From a dynasty angle, we can be more concerned about how his passing outlook affects his chances of being a long-term starter in the league. KeepTradeCut has him ahead of Justin Herbert and narrowly behind Joe Burrow. There’s probably an argument that he has a higher ceiling than either passer, though I don’t know how you could give up the floor of Burrow or Herbert in favor of the slight ceiling edge.

Will Levis, Titans

Pinned as a top-five pick by some NFL analysts, Levis’s draft stock Ponzi scheme came crashing down on the weekend of the draft as he fell to the top of the second round. The Titans gave Ryan Tannehill the starting nod to open the year and even deployed Malik Willis as his backup, though neither decision lasted long. Tannehill tweaked his ankle early in the season and the Titans opted to start Levis over Willis. Levis’s debut was nothing short of miraculous.

Though more than one of his touchdowns were gimmes, it was a phenomenal outing for his first game. Things would quickly take a turn for the worse for Levis and he would only throw for multiple scores once in his next eight starts. Levis also missed two games because of an ankle injury of his own. At a high level, Levis was a solid thrower. He sits just above the 75th percentile in ANY/A. He was just outside the top 20 quarterbacks in EPA per play and CPOE. For a first-year quarterback who wasn’t prepped as the starter during the summer, that’s not bad. The bigger issues come when digging a little deeper.

Levis nearly ranked last in the NFL in PFF passing grade on intermediate throws and was well outside of the top 30 quarterbacks on short throws. He crept into the top 25 in deep passing and leaned into that relative strength by leading the NFL in deep throw rate. His deep throw rate of 22.4 percent was six points higher than any other quarterback.

On the ground, the Titans oddly decided against using their uber-athletic project quarterback. Tennessee only dialed up three designed carries for Levis and he even showed a reluctance to scramble, adding just nine attempts on called passing plays. In three years as a full-time starter, Levis has had three different offensive coordinators opt against using his legs. It appears safe to assume he won’t be a dual threat for fantasy purposes. Because of that, he needs to make massive strides as a passer just to be a usable fantasy option. Given that the NFL didn’t view him as a first-round talent and he didn’t blow us away as a rookie, I’m willing to bet against him making the leap in his second year.

Aidan O’Connell, Raiders

Drafted in the fourth round, O’Connell was selected as a developmental backup for Las Vegas. He showed well in the preseason and earned the No. 2 gig behind Jimmy Garoppolo ahead of Week 1. Garoppolo went down with an injury a few weeks into the season, allowing O’Connell to debut in Week 4. His first start was a disaster as he threw for 238 scoreless yards with an interception while taking seven sacks. The performance was so bad that Brian Hoyer drew the start the next time Garoppolo was unavailable. That also went poorly and O’Connell returned to the lineup in Week 9.

Things went much better for AOC in his second stint as the starter. He threw 11 touchdowns to five interceptions in nine starts and also took just 17 sacks. His advanced metrics were less rosy. He ranked 27th in EPA per play and 35th in CPOE from Week 9 onward. On the whole, he finished his rookie campaign just above the 50th percentile in fantasy points per game and just above the 60th percentile in ANY/A. With some development, I could see O’Connell serving as a high-end backup, but I doubt he ever rises to the level of a viable starter.

Tyson Bagent

Bagent took over for an injured Justin Fields in October and earned two wins in his four starts. He juiced his fantasy number with a pair of rushing touchdowns and 109 yards on the ground but only threw for more than one passing score in one appearance. After a brief moment of bad-faith discourse, Fields was re-installed as the starter once healthy.

PFF graded Bagent outside of their top 40 passers. He barely snuck inside the top 40 quarterbacks in EPA and CPOE. Bagent was barely edged out by Trevor Siemian for the lowest aDOT in the league and still managed a -2.4 percent CPOE. Coming out of Division II’s Shepherd University, it was fair to wonder if Bagent had the arm strength to make it at the next level. That proved to be a colossal hurdle for him in 2023 as he ranked poorly in deep ball accuracy and was nearly the worst quarterback on intermediate throws according to PFF. He also attempted both throws at low rates. Bagent could survive as the backup in a system that doesn’t push his physical limitations, but he doesn’t have a starter-level ceiling.

Tommy DeVito

The Tommy DeVito run was fun if nothing else. He spawned countless memes, won a few games, and advanced Italian culture at least a decade. The on-field experience wasn’t quite as impressive, but who’s counting?

I am, to be clear. That’s what this whole article is about.

Like Bagent, DeVito, who is also a UDFA, doesn’t have the strongest arm, though he did grade better on short, intermediate, and deep throws. Bagent only bested him in throws behind the line of scrimmage. DeVito also did some damage with his legs, topping 30 yards in half of his starts. The Giants ultimately told us how they felt about DeVito through their play calling. In the eight games he saw meaningful action in, the team logged a negative five percent pass rate over expected.

DeVito also threw less than 10 yards downfield on 66 percent of his throws. Most importantly, he recorded a sack rate of 17 percent. Despite having more arm talent than Bagent, his propensity for taking sacks likely makes him a worse backup than Bagent.