2023 NFL Draft: Instant grades for all 31 picks in the first round
The concept of grading draft picks in any sport right after they happen may seem silly to some, as we obviously have no idea how those prospects will perform for their new teams. In these cases, it’s not about assigning an absolute grade to a player; it’s more about weighing positional value, value at the pick, any trade capital that may be involved, and how one estimates that prospect might fit with his new team.
So, if there are grades here that make you happy or enraged as a fan of your favorite team, remember that these are not the last word on anything. NFL players outperform their initial evaluations all the time, and as John Wooden was fond of saying, “Success is never final, and failure is never fatal.”
With that bit of philosophy out there. it’s time to assign initial grades to the 31 picks in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft.
1. Carolina Panthers (From Chicago Bears): Bryce Young, QB, Alabama. Grade: A
(Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports)
This wouldn’t even be a question if Young stood 6-foot-2 and weighed 210 pounds. The fact that he has the same height/weight profile as Doug Flutie doesn’t negate his ability to call plays, read protections, execute a fully-formed passing game in and out of the pocket, and win against pressure to a preposterous degree. The Panthers have the first pick for the first time since they took Cam Newton in 2011, and their next real franchise quarterback is right here. Young is the first Alabama player to be selected first overall in the common draft era, and the first since Joe Namath in 1965.
2. Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State. Grade: A+
(Syndication: The Columbus Dispatch)
Take the S2 test and throw it right out the window. If you want to know about Stroud’s cognitive skills, go watch the Georgia game, and any other game last season in which Stroud sliced and diced his opponents with ball placement, accuracy, and a great overall sense of the attributes required for the position.
3. Houston Texans (from Arizona Cardinals): Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama. Grade: B+
(Photo by Brandon Sumrall/Getty Images)
Anderson has proven all he needed to prove with the Crimson Tide, and he’ll be a Day 1 tone-setter in DeMeco Ryans’ defense. The trade with the Cardinals to move up from 12 to 3 is a rich one, and my only hesitation with an A grade is that the Texans might have gone with a player with more upside, such as Jalen Carter or Tyree Wilson. Still, you can’t argue with the back-to-back picks of C.J. Stroud and Anderson. This is a team looking to define its character with two knockout blows.
4. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida. Grade: B
(Syndication: Gator Sports)
Yes, Richardson needs development as a pure passer after just one season as a starter with the Florida Gators. But new Colts head coach and former Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen can take the QB run game he had with Jalen Hurts and push it to an entirely new level with Richardson, who presents measurables at the position we have absolutely never seen before.
5. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver Broncos): Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois. Grade: A+
(Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports)
The Seahawks shocked a lot of people by passing on Jalen Carter or Tyree Wilson, either of which could have immediately reinforced their light front seven. But I have no issue with this pick, because Witherspoon is exactly the kind of cornerback Pete Carroll loves — smart, aggressive, and a shutdown guy from start to finish. With Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen, the Seahawks have a potential cornerback duo that might be better than any duo they had in the Legion of Boom days, given that Richard Sherman never had a true No. 1 bookend.
6. Arizona Cardinals (from Detroit Lions): Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State. Grade: B
(Syndication: USA TODAY)
The Cardinals came into this draft with the NFL’s worst roster, so trading down with the Texans for more picks, and then trading up with the Lions? Well… m’kay. They also didn’t get my best offensive tackle in this class — that would be Tennessee’s Darnell Wright. But Johnson is the kind of player who, with a few refinements, has the look of a 10-year starter at left tackle. He’s pretty much plug-and-play.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech. Grade: A
(Syndication: Lubbock Avalanche-Journal)
You’ll hear from evaluators that Wilson is still a work in progress, and that’s true. But Wilson is the defensive version of Anthony Richardson in this draft — a prospect with so much ridiculous upside, and so much he’s shown on the field already, that the defense-light Raiders made the right pick here. Pairing him with Max Crosby in an AFC West with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and (you’ll pardon the expression) Russell Wilson should even things out a bit.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas. Grade: B-
(Syndication: Austin American-Statesman)
I have no issue whatsoever with Robinson — the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson — going in the top 10. He is no ordinary back. But the Falcons already have Tyler Allgeier on their roster, and needs all over the place that could have been addressed so very well with such a premium pick. Again, the low grade here has nothing to do with Robinson’s value, or the value of running backs in general. It’s just odd in this particular situation.
9. Philadelphia Eagles (from Chicago Bears): Jalen Carter, DL,, Georgia. Grade: A
(Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports)
If there’s one place that can survive Carter’s pre-draft drama, it’s the defending NFC champs. Carter will reunite with college teammates Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean, and his addition as the best pure player in this class will do a lot to mitigate the loss of Javon Hargrave in free agency. If Carter keeps is straight and makes the most of his potential, the Eagles’ five-man fronts will be just about impossible to deal with.
10. Chicago Bears (from Philadelphia Eagles); Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee. Grade:
(Bryan Lynn-USA TODAY Sports)
Yes, Darnell Wright is a right tackle. But in today’s quick-game NFL, your right tackle is just as important as your left tackle, and the Bears now have a right tackle who beat up on Will Anderson Jr. Bryan Bresee, and BJ Ojulari last season. Chicago had all kinds of needs along its offensive line, and getting the best tackle in this class while trading down to do so? Not bad at all.
11. Tennessee Titans: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern. Grade: A-
(Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports)
One does wonder whether Skoronski will be able to play tackle in the NFL, but at worst, he has everything it takes to be a Pro Bowl guard, and Zack Martin — who I compared him to — went 16th overall in the 2014 draft. So, this isn’t too far off. Skoronski is more of a high-floor player than a guy with a ridiculous ceiling, but the Titans so desperately need high floors on an offensive line in need of upheaval.
12. Detroit Lions (from Houston Texans) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama. Grade:
(Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports)
Since I gave the Falcons’ pick of Bijan Robinson a B- as well, you may assume that I’m anti-running back. I am not, but I think the Lions probably could have picked Gibbs up with their second first-round pick if they wanted him. Gibbs is a great back with the ability to win in multiple ways, but I’m just questioning the placement of the pick.
13. Green Bay Packers (from New York Jets): Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa. Grade: D
(Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports)
Van Ness is a good (not great) player, but I would not have given him a first-round grade for a lot of reasons (listed below), and with so much talent still left on the boards at positions of need for the Packers, this seems like a reckless luxury pick for a team that should be acquiring as many true cornerstone players as possible. And if the idea was to go after an edge defender, there were better prospects on the board.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (from New England Patriots): Broderick Jones, OL, Georgia. Grade: A
(Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports)
I’ve mocked Jones to the Steelers more than once, because he’s a top-tier power tackle who I believe could nuke everybody in the NFL were you move him to guard. Wherever Pittsburgh lines him up, Jones absolutely fits the Steelers’ offensive mentality, and he’ll be a major asset right off the bus.
15. New York Jets (from Green Bay Packers): Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State. Grade: B+
(Syndication: The Des Moines Register)
I might have preferred an offensive tackle or receiver here, but McDonald is a highly underrated speed end whose true potential won’t show up on his college tape. A 6-foot-4, 240-pound speed end shouldn’t be inside the tackles in three-man fronts, but that’s where McDonald was far too often for Iowa State last season. You put him in four- and five-man fronts, and you just have to love what he can do with his bend, spin moves, and surprising power.
16. Washington Commanders: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State. Grade: B
(Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports)
I’m a bit shocked that Forbes went before Christian Gonzalez, but the production and traits are undeniable. Forbes will need a few protein bars when he hits the Commanders’ facility, and there’s no arguing against 14 career interceptions, and an FBS-record six pick-sixes.
17. New England Patriots (from Pittsburgh Steelers): Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon. Grade: A+
(Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
Some believe Gonzalez to be the best cornerback in this class, and while I prefer Devon Witherspoon, there is no denying Gonzalez’s smoothness, intelligence, and ball skills. The Patriots may be ready to unleash a demon on the rest of the NFL, as nobody expected Gonzalez to last until the 17th overall pick, and he has everything required to exact revenge.
18. Detroit Lions: Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa
(Syndication: HawkCentral)
Welp. There is the Lions’ concept of positional value, and there is everybody else’s. Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell went old-school with Jahmyr Gibbs and Jack Campbell, and they took two guys in the first round who I would have not rated first at their positions. So, there’s that. Campbell fits as an old-school headbanger in the middle of Detroit’s defense, but I’m not sure about the payoff for a top pick.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Calijah Kancey, DL, Pitt. Grade: A
(Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)
The Buccaneers have had to deal with Atlanta’s Grady Jarrett twice a season for a long time, so they decided to go out and get their own in Kancey, whose ridiculous combine measurables show up all over his tape. He’s a Tasmanian Devil who will bring a furor to Todd Bowles’ defense right off the bat.
20. Seattle Seahawks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State. Grade: A+
(Syndication: USA TODAY)
The first receiver off the board in the 2023 draft wasn’t my WR1 (that was Boston College’s Zay Flowers), but Smith-Njigba, in a receiver room with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, will turn that passing game into a real problem for every defense facing it. One wonders how it’ll all work with Pete Carroll’s preference for offensive balance, but you have to think the Seahawks were doing all kinds of handstands and cartwheels when Smith-Njigba was available here.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU. Grade: B-
(Syndication: Detroit Free Press)
Chargers general manager Tom Telesco loves big receivers, and Johnston certainly fits that paradigm, but with Johnston, there are some legitimate questions about his route palette, and the drops are a real problem that Los Angeles’ coaches will have to rectify. He’s a yards-after-catch monster with all kinds of explosive potential, but this is an iffy pick with so much other receiver talent still left on the board.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Zay Flowers, WR Boston College. Grade: A+++
(Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports)
Flowers did more with less at quarterback than any other top receiver in this class, and with the newly-resigned Lamar Jackson throwing him the ball, Flowers should finally have a real chance to show all he can do. Flowers can win from all points of the field, and he’s the first legitimate WR1 the Ravens have had since… well, it’s been a long time. Flowers was my best receive in this class, and I think that the NFL is where he’ll really be able to shine as he couldn’t in college.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Jordan Addison, WR, USC. Grade: A-
(Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports)
Pairing Addison, the finest route chef in this class, with Justin Jefferson should give Kirk Cousins a big smile this offseason. Addison isn’t the most powerful receiver, but as Jefferson can, he’ll foil cornerbacks with his nuanced understanding of the position. You can throw a debit at this pick because Addison isn’t a cornerback, and the Vikings REALLY need cornerbacks, but you can’t really argue it in any other way.
24. New York Giants (from Jacksonville Jaguars): Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland. Grade: A
(Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports)
The Giants moved up one pick with the Jaguars to get Banks, and if you understand how defensive coordinator Wink Martindale likes to deploy his players, it makes all the sense in the world. You won’t play too many reps for Martindale if you’re not comfortable with aggressive press coverage, and Banks is absolutely the best press-man cornerback in this class. He’s a bit more undefined in off-coverage, but he has the traits to develop that over time.
25. Buffalo Bills (from Jacksonville Jaguars): Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah. Grade: A+
(Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)
The Bills are in need of an offense that doesn’t fore Josh Allen to do everything, and the addition of Dalton Kincaid is certainly a step in the right direction. There is no other tight end in this class — and few receivers overall — with Kincaid’s ability to win contested catches, beat both man and zone coverage with timing and spacing, and use pure speed to get things done. The Bills have had all kinds of issues getting past the Chiefs in recent years, and Kincaid reminds me of Travis Kelce, so that’s a positive step.
26. Dallas Cowboys: Mazi Smith, DL, Michigan. Grade: B+
(Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)
The Cowboys had a real need for an interior hole-plugger with penetrative potential in the middle of Dan Quinn’s defense, and Smith certainly fits that bill. Smith is more than just a big dude who soaks up blockers so that others can shine — at his best, he can wreck top offensive lines by himself, and he brings Dontari Poe to mind as a quick, nimble big man who should reinforce all the Cowboys want to do with their pass-rush, and add a lot against the run. Smith also can stunt well, and the Cowboys do a ton of that under Quinn. His new DC should also be able to bring a bit more juice to Smith’s game.
27. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Buffalo Bills): Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
(AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)
I liked Harrison’s tape a lot, and I’m not surprised that he went in the first round. I’m also not surprised that he went to the Jaguars, who lost Jawaan Taylor in free agency, and look to lose Cam Robinson to an NFL suspension. The Jags’ primary need at the end of last season was their secondary, and that still applies, but this is a nice fit for a line in obvious need of reliable, consistent protectors for Trevor Lawrence.
28. Cincinnati Bengals: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson. Grade: B+
(Syndication: The Greenville News)
The Bengals have a need for edge-rushing depth behind Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard, and Murphy can fill that need from multiple gaps. You’d like to see a bit more of a finished picture, but as Cincinnati defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is one of the best in the business, Murphy’s upside should be sufficiently realized in the Queen City.
29. New Orleans Saints: Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson. Grade: A
(Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports)
Saints head coach Dennis Allen saw his defense lose some valued defensive linemen in free agency, so Bresee is a smart pick here, as long as he can transcend a slightly worrisome injury history. As Allen tends to prefer, Bresee can play all over the line, and he is a disruptor above all, with a knack for the kinds of quick pressure that is job one in the NFL these days.
30. Philadelphia Eagles: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia. Grade: A+
(Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas State. Grade: B
The Chiefs added some serious talent to their defensive line with Kansas State’s Felix
(AP Photo/Colin E. Braley)
, who totaled eight sacks and 46 total pressures last season. At 6-foot-4 and 255 pounds, Anudike-Uzomah projects well as an outside rusher who can also kick inside, and that makes him an intriguing addition to Steve Spagnuolo’s complex, blitz-friendly schemes.
Anudike-Uzomah brings impressive bend and lean around the edge, and he has the potential to be even more productive in the NFL, as he’ll be in fewer three-man fronts in the NFL than he was in college.
