Miami Dolphins 2023 Fantasy Football Preview: Tua Tagovailoa ready for more

By Lawrence Jackson Jr.

Miami Dolphins 2022 Stats (Rank)

Points per game: 23.4 (6th)

Total yards per game: 364.5 (6th)

Plays per game: 59.4 (27th)

Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 36.4 (14th)

Drop back EPA per play: 0.11 (8th)

Rush attempts per game: 22.9 (31st)

Rush EPA per play: -0.05 (13th)

Coaching Staff

Mike McDaniel enters his second season as the Dolphins’ head coach with high expectations. After leading the team to a 9-8 record and the organization's first playoff appearance since 2016, he's locked in and ready to go. Although Frank Smith is the offensive coordinator in name, McDaniel will continue to be the primary play-caller. Known for their explosive passing offense, the Dolphins were the eighth-worst running team in the NFL last season (99.2 yards per game). On the passing end, however, McDaniel led the NFL’s fourth-best passing unit in 2022 (265.4 yards per game).

This offseason McDaniel emphasized getting better on the defensive end by bringing in veteran coach Vic Fangio as the defensive coordinator. Soon after, the team traded for Jalen Ramsey in a move that signifies the Dolphins are going all in. Whether the defense improves or not (from its 15th overall ranking in 2022), expect Miami's offense to continue to keep opposing defenses on their heels with its quick-strike offense.

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Passing Game

QB: Tua Tagovailoa, Mike White, Skylar Thompson

WR: Tyreek Hill, River Cracraft

WR: Jaylen Waddle, Chosen Anderson

WR: Braxton Berrios, Cedrick Wilson

TE: Durham Smythe, Eric Saubert, Tanner Conner, Elijah Higgins

Tagovailoa put his haters on mute last season, but he's going to be even better in 2023. The only thing that saved his doubters from complete embarrassment was the fact that Tagovailoa missed five games (including playoffs), which kept him from putting up MVP-type numbers. Incorrectly known for not being able to throw the ball downfield, Tagovailoa was the second-best deep ball thrower according to NFL Next Gen Stats (passing score of 99 on deep ball attempts). He’ll be vital for the Dolphins’ success if they want to make a deeper playoff run as he needs to prove he can stay healthy. Tagovailoa should be the first non-dual-threat quarterback you should be drafting in fantasy this season after Joe Burrow. Like Burrow, Tagovailoa has an elite receiving duo. After putting up 3,548-25-8 in 2022, Tagovailoa showed that he's an elite point guard in McDaniel’s offense and is worthy of being selected as one of the top seven to 10 quarterbacks in fantasy this year.

After Hill and Waddle, receiving production was pretty much non-existent for the Dolphins in 2022. The duo combined for 194 receptions, 3,066 yards and 15 touchdowns. Many foolishly thought Hill was due for regression by going from Patrick Mahomes to Tagovailoa. He responded by setting career marks in receptions and yards. Waddle also took his game to another level by leading the NFL in yards per catch last season. The target distribution should be similar as it was in 2022 with Hill/Waddle receiving 49.1% of the team’s receiving targets. Both are a threat to finish as top-10 receivers in fantasy. The offense lacked depth behind them last season and the Dolphins looked to correct that by bringing in Berrios and Anderson. Wilson, who was brought in last offseason as a big free agent signee, failed to get meaningful snaps. Outside of Berrios and Anderson, Cracraft figures to be a beneficiary should Hill or Waddle miss any time.

Up until this point, the tight end position in McDaniel’s offense is hardly a threat in the receiving game. Mike Gesicki, the team’s leading receiver at tight end last season left in free agency after going 32-362-5, his worst season since 2018. Smythe will get the nod, but he’ll share time and compete for reps with Saubert, Conner and potentially the versatile rookie in Higgins. You should only be drafting a Dolphins’ tight end in fantasy if you play in a league where you don't want to score points.

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Running Game

RB: Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, Devon Achane, Salvon Ahmed, Myles Gaskin

OL (L-R): Terron Armstead, Liam Eichenberg, Connor Williams, Robert Hunt, Austin Jackson

It’s certainly not the worst thing in the world that the Dolphins brought back Mostert and Wilson, as they're two veterans who know McDaniels’ scheme well. With these two plus Achane, you'll likely be looking at a committee/hot hand approach which makes it tricky from a fantasy perspective. Mostert is coming off a season in which he gave you a few solid weeks en route to a career-high 1,595 all-purpose yards. Wilson had a career-best season as well rushing for 860 yards splitting time between the 49ers and Dolphins. Either of these guys could begin any given game as the starter. Achane will have to work his way into the rotation, but once he gets up to speed, has the best all-around skillset of all the Dolphins’ running backs currently on the roster. As you're reading this, Dalvin Cook could sign with the Dolphins and whatever you read above goes out of the window. If Cook lands in Miami, he’ll be a top-10 running back in fantasy once again. The Dolphins won't concede valuable touches to Mostert/Wilson/Achane with Cook on the roster.

Outside of Armstead and Williams, the Dolphins' offensive line didn't have many new faces, but they improved from what they put on tape the previous two seasons. After rising from the ranks of one of the worst lines in the NFL, the unit took a small leap in 2022. While McDaniel's scheme and quick strike ability helped neutralize pass rushers, they left much to be desired in the run game. While the team averaged 4.3 YPC, they failed to rush for over 100 yards per game. They'll look to improve in that area to keep teams off balance.

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Win Total

The Dolphins will face the Bills, Eagles and Chiefs in their first nine games — all could go either way based on the rosters. They've won at least nine games each season since Tua Tagovailoa was drafted in 2020, so the 9.5 total is a solid number. It should be noted that despite Tagovailoa only starting 13 games (two of which he left early), the Dolphins still compiled a 9-8 record. Trading for Jalen Ramsey was a great move for the Dolphins, who housed the sixth-worst passing defense in the NFL last season. Better defensive play overall will help the Dolphins move into double-win territory. I expect Bradley Chubb to make his presence known and Jalen Phillips to take the leap. Give me the Dolphins on the over and to win the AFC East, this is a 12-13 win team.