Los Angeles Chargers 2023 Fantasy Football Preview: Will Justin Herbert have his best season yet?

2022 Stats

Total yards per game: 357.1 (eighth)
Plays per game: 67.9 (second)
Pass attempts + Sacks per game: 44.2 (second)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.04 (10th)
Rush attempts per game: 23.7 (28th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.04 (19th)

Coaching Staff

Joe Lombardi’s stint as the offensive coordinator for the Chargers comes to an end following a season that should largely be regarded as a disappointment on the offensive side of the ball. After consecutive seasons of 31 or more passing touchdowns to start his career, quarterback Justin Herbert threw only 25 scores as the offense sputtered to the tune of a lowly 54.55 percent red zone touchdown rate in 2022. Head coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco replaced both coordinators this offseason, welcoming former Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and promoting former defensive backs coach Derrick Ansley to defensive coordinator. Staley is expected to call plays on defense.

Passing Game

QB: Justin Herbert, Easton Stick
WR: Mike Williams, Jaylen Guyton
WR: Keenan Allen, Joshua Palmer
WR: Quentin Johnston, Derius Davis
TE: Gerald Everett, Donald Parham, Jr, Tre’ McKitty

By most metrics, the Chargers boasted a top-five pass-blocking offensive line in 2022 and maintain a level of continuity largely unmatched around the league. Their 6.0 adjusted sack rate ranked ninth in the league while ceding 39 sacks on the second-most plays per game and second-most pass attempts per game. Herbert’s 2.71 second average time to throw was comparable to Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff. It then becomes interesting that Herbert managed a paltry 6.8 yards per pass attempt and 6.5 air yards per pass attempt, which ranked just 25th and 32nd respectively. That hints at an offense built around short-area passing and quick hits that should have room to grow into a more balanced downfield attack under Moore’s tutelage.

Furthering that notion was the selection of wide receiver Quentin Johnston with the No. 21 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Johnston brings alpha physical traits and plus yards after the catch (YAC) ability to an offense that had largely been lacking a downfield presence. Expect the rookie to contribute immediately considering the draft capital used to secure his services. While Johnston is capable of producing splash plays through his elite abilities with the ball in his hands, his X-type build and relative lack of top-end speed somewhat overlap with returning wide receiver Mike Williams. It will be interesting to see how Moore chooses to approach Johnston’s integration into the offense.

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Joining Williams as pieces of continuity are veteran slot receiver Keenan Allen, veteran tight end Gerald Everett and veteran running back Austin Ekeler, giving this offense multiple dynamic pieces to place stress on opposing defenses on all levels of the field. Allen continues to be a staple of consistency having finished each of the last six seasons ranked 13th or better in fantasy points per game amongst wide receivers. The fact that Allen has worn a scarlet letter deeming him injury prone is somewhat misleading considering he had missed only three games during the five seasons leading up to last year, when he missed a total of seven games due to recurring hamstring issues.

Williams followed up a breakout campaign in 2021 with three 100-yard games and three touchdowns over his first seven contests in 2022 before injuries largely derailed his season. Still, his 7.2 targets per game and 12.0 average depth of target hint at further untapped upside for the enigmatic veteran. He managed top 24 ranks in route win rate and fantasy points per target versus man coverage a season ago, highlighted by an innate ability to secure contested catches down the sideline. A physical playstyle and fearless mentality in tight spaces has led to multiple back, neck and shoulder injuries during his career, something that could reemerge moving forward considering the role he is asked to play in this offense.

Everett quietly played the eighth most snaps out of the slot amongst tight ends a season ago, ran the ninth most routes at the tight end position and held a solid 21.9% target per route run rate (13th). His 16 red-zone targets in 2022 ranked fifth at the position and he ranked sixth in expected fantasy points per game at 10.3. Looming to play spoiler for the veteran is athletic specimen Donald Parham Jr., who was confined to only six games played in 2022 due to a hamstring injury and a scary concussion suffered in the middle of October. The concussion was his second major head injury in one calendar year after the towering tight end was taken to the hospital in December of the 2021 season, an injury that cost him the remainder of the year.

Holdover depth wide receivers Jalen Guyton and Joshua Palmer should find it more difficult to secure offensive snaps with the addition of Johnston and would likely need an injury ahead of them to factor into the fantasy equation in 2023.

Running Game

RB: Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley, Isaiah Spiller, Larry Rountree III
OL (L-R): Rashawn Slater, Zion Johnson, Corey Linsley, Jamaree Salyer, Trey Pipkins III

The Austin Ekeler contract saga ended with a compromised approach after the running back was offered additional incentives including up to $1 million for total yards, up to $600,000 for total touchdowns and a $150,000 bonus for a Pro Bowl selection. A likely overlooked aspect of his situation is the fact that the Chargers threw additional money at him for the 2023 season but failed to extend the 28-year-old back beyond the coming season. That hints at a potential divorce between the two sides after this year, which likely means the Chargers are incentivized to ride him until the wheels fall off as they find themselves firmly entrenched in a championship window. Ekeler followed up a breakout in 2021 with a massive 107-catch year in 2022, vaulting the diminutive back to the top overall finish in fantasy points per game. His 38 total touchdowns over the previous two seasons rank first of any non-quarterback during that window. His 811 career carries over six professional seasons leaves meat on the bone as far as wear and tear are concerned. Ekeler’s 4.5 yards per carry in 2022 slightly outperformed the 4.23 adjusted line yards that his offensive line blocked to. When paired with a modest 5.4% breakaway run rate, Ekeler’s value should remain largely tied to his receiving prowess and lofty touchdown expectation moving forward.

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Behind Ekeler are project backs Joshua Kelley, Isaiah Spiller and Larry Rountree, each of whom has failed to provide much of a spark in limited rushing roles. Only Kelley has managed more than a measly 2.4 yards per carry at any point during their respective careers, peaking at a solid 4.2 value in 2022 on only 69 carries. Basically, the Chargers’ run game is seemingly at the mercy of a healthy Ekeler, furthering the expectation that the team is likely to ride their dynamic back in the final year of his contract.

Win Total

After three consecutive seasons of improvement in the win-loss column, the Chargers currently boast a healthy win total of 9.5 for the coming season. It seems as if the defense has maintained a level of preseason buzz for each of the previous three seasons to no avail, something that could finally turn hype into legitimate successes on the field should they remain healthy in 2023. Pair their defense with an offensive line that appears to be top-five on paper, a top-tier quarterback still on his rookie deal and the addition of rookie Quentin Johnston through this year’s draft and there is a lot for Chargers fans to get excited about heading into the new season. Expect the Chargers to challenge for a wildcard berth out of the AFC as they look to match or exceed the 10 wins they ripped off a season ago.