Las Vegas Raiders 2023 Fantasy Football Preview: Is Davante Adams still a top-5 WR?

Raiders 2022 Stats

Total yards per game: 352.5 (12th)
Plays per game: 61.7 (21st)
Pass Attempts + sacks per game: 36.5 (12th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.06 (13th)
Rush attempts per game: 25.2 (21st)
Rush EPA per play: -0.07 (18th)

Coaching Staff

Making the switch from TV man Jon Gruden to supposed genius Josh McDaniels, the Raiders scored their fewest points in three years. Derek Carr was far less efficient, watching his completion percentage fall from the 68-70 range under Gruden to 60.8, his worst mark since his rookie year. His yards per attempt fell from 7.7 to 7.0. This despite the fact that the Raiders added Davante Adams. Carr’s decline more than offset Josh Jacobs’ explosive career year on the ground, one in which he led the league in yards from scrimmage.

Passing Game

QB: Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Hoyer, Aidan O'Connell
WR: Davante Adams, Phillip Dorsett
WR: Jakobi Meyers, Keelan Cole
WR: Hunter Renfrow, Cam Sims
TE: Michael Mayer, Austin Hooper, O.J. Howard

Carr is gone, and Adams is unhappy. McDaniels couldn’t wait to move on to Jimmy Garoppolo, a former Patriots pupil who lights up the advanced metrics, even though he never stays healthy and has thrown for more than 20 touchdowns in just one season. The switch already has all the makings of a fiasco, with the Raiders having to rework Garoppolo’s deal to include an out that he can be released with $0 cap hit in case his foot is not ready following offseason surgery. That would be the same surgery Garoppolo waited to undergo until after his Raiders signing, even though he was injured in December.

Either way, it should be Garoppolo under center in Week 1 against the Broncos. Although brutal on the eyes in San Francisco, Jimmy G was always efficient by both conventional stats and more advanced measures. The big question is how much of that was him and how much of it was Kyle Shanahan, a playcaller so gifted that he seamlessly shifted from Garoppolo to the final pick of the draft, Brock Purdy, after Jimmy G went down in Week 13.

McDaniels is known for overseeing efficient offenses, too, but that was with Tom Brady. He was middle-of-the-pack with Carr last season and Mac Jones in 2021. That is to say nothing of Bill Belichick’s influence. If Garoppolo can stay healthy, he’ll undoubtedly look appealing for the occasional streamer matchup with Adams at his disposal, but that is his absolute ceiling in re-draft.

Which brings us to Adams. Openly upset the entire offseason, Adams has gone from football soulmate Aaron Rodgers to best friend Carr to … Garoppolo. The WR5 by average PPR points last season, if you exclude Cooper Kupp’s nine games, Adams has spent his summer in the WR8-10 range. He has not finished that low since 2017, when he was the WR9 by average PPR points. It is difficult to believe even Garoppolo could derail a man of Adams’ compiling prowess, but the vibes are so bad in Vegas.

Adams also has increased short-area target competition in overpaid slot man Jakobi Meyers. It is worth noting that only a quarter of Adams’ 2022 looks came in the slot. He could match that number even with Meyers in the mix. Adams feels genuinely risky “at cost,” but even in a worst-case scenario, he figures to hang around the WR1/2 borderline, while it's conceivable that he is fed so many looks that he easily finishes in the top five.

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Meyers goes from being the default No. 1 in New England to a distant No. 2 behind Adams. The good news is he should remain in the 90-120 target range after Vegas dealt Darren Waller. The Raiders also attempted 46 more passes than the 2022 Pats. They will likely have to push last year’s 586 attempts beyond the 600 mark as they deal with negative game script, navigating the league’s second-toughest schedule in its most difficult division. Outside the top 50 at receiver in summer ADP, Meyers could easily catch in the range of 75 passes and settle in as a PPR WR3/4.

The Raiders’ biggest remaining name in the receiver corps is Hunter Renfrow, though he is coming off an injury-ruined campaign and is obvious trade bait following Meyers’ signing. Of Renfrow’s 2022 targets, 67.3% came in the slot. The slot, of course, is where Meyers spent 54.8% of his time. He was not signed to be pushed outside. Even were Renfrow to remain in Vegas, his targets per game fell from 7.5 in 2021 to five under McDaniels. Renfrow could still end up fantasy-relevant, especially in PPR leagues, but it would have to be for a team other than Vegas.

Beyond Renfrow, there is almost nothing to write home about after the Raiders flipped Waller to the Giants. McDaniels appears ready to mix and match up the seam, signing role players Austin Hooper and O.J. Howard before using the No. 35 overall pick on Michael Mayer. The rookie offers by far the most upside, but “upside” is going to be a relative concept in this offense, especially behind target hogs Adams and Meyers. Mayer does have the résumé to suggest that he could be a rare rookie difference-maker at tight end. Entirely devoid of ADP concerns — he is currently the TE31 on Yahoo — Mayer should remain on re-draft watch lists as someone who could parlay a strong training camp into a larger-than-expected early-season target share.

In theory, third-round receiver Tre Tucker is the only other pass-catching name worth monitoring, but the 5-foot-9 Cincinnati product profiles as a slot-only option. There is almost zero chance that he commands significant attention behind Meyers and Renfrow. Even if Renfrow were dealt, Tucker won’t come into re-draft relevance. Behind Tucker, veterans Phillip Dorsett, Keelan Cole and Cam Sims will fight for snaps on the boundary.

Running Game

RB: Josh Jacobs, Zamir White, Ameer Abdullah
OL (L-R): Kolton Miller, Dylan Parham, Andre James, Alex Bars, Jermaine Eluemunor

Josh Jacobs finally put it all together last season en route to leading the league in rushing and yards from scrimmage, as he vied for honors for Offensive Player of the Year. This being the Raiders, however, he’s an offseason trouble spot. Jacobs was franchise-tagged and has thus far refused to sign. It appears possible, if not likely, that he will skip a majority of training camp before reporting either late in the summer or early in the season. Players who have taken such an approach in the past have almost universally failed to meet expectations, but Jacobs’ importance to the Raiders’ offense cannot be understated. Whenever he finally shows up, it will be as a no-brainer RB1, not the borderline option he was treated as by summer best ball drafters.

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Hinting that their Jacobs concern is real, the Raiders spent the spring talking up second-year pro Zamir White. That would be the same Zamir White who was the recipient of similar hype last year before going on to play 40 total snaps on offense. We don’t doubt that White has improved, but there is precisely zero chance that he develops standalone fantasy value behind Jacobs. White is a pure insurance option in the event of a Jacobs holdout or injury. If Jacobs were to go down, White would almost certainly be subject to a committee, one in which he would start as a touchdowns-based FLEX. Veteran journeyman Ameer Abdullah would likely handle passing-down duties.

Win Total

Typically installed at 7.5, the Raiders have a number of things going against them. Stationed in the same division as Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Sean Payton, they are rated as having the league’s most difficult schedule by Warren Sharp. Throw in the fact that their new most important player in Jimmy Garoppolo is over the age of 30 and one of the most injury-prone players in the league, and this has the look of a situation that will get worse before it gets better, potentially exponentially so. If the under feels obvious, that is because it should.