2023 Kentucky Derby week at Churchill Downs: Ed DeRosa's expert picks, analysis for Thurby
It’s brass tacks time beneath the Twin Spires at Churchill Downs, as Thurby begins a triumvirate of three of the most attended days of live racing on the North American calendar with handle to match.
An 11-race card with a trio of stakes kicks off the excitement before yielding to the 13- and 14-race crucibles on Kentucky Oaks and Derby days, respectively. Here’s hoping for safe trips, some winners and stories to last a lifetime.
Race 1 picks: 1-6-7
We know that a price horse lifted the lid on each of the first two days at the track. Maybe we can get that same lightning for Thurby, as No. 1 Total Discretion offers good value at 6-to-1 getting the apprentice weight break second time out after a useful return off the mini break.
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Race 2 picks: 4-3-6
Always like it when the regular jockey sticks around after the barn change, and that’s in play here with the speedy No. 4 Scarlet Stripe (5-to-2), as leading rider Tyler Gaffalione gets aboard for new trainer Whitworth Beckman. No. 3 Academic Honor certainly fits, but as the 2-to-1 favorite on the morning-line I'm going to play the longer price to use her speed.
Race 3 picks: 8-3-2
There is an extraordinary amount of speed here, and while No. 8 Concrete Glory (8-to-5) has been on the engine in each of his past four starts (winning three), the Brisnet Pace Ratings suggest she can sit and kick, as she has better late pace ratings than early ratings in some races. Gaffalione back aboard after winning with him at Gulfstream in December.
Race 4 (Kentucky Juvenile Stakes) picks: 2-1-4
Not too often you go against trainer Wesley Ward and feel good about it, but No. 2 Youalmosthadme (6-to-5) is now with trainer Brad Cox after winning her debut for John Hancock by 8 ½ lengths. Gaffalione is going to have to put me on this payroll I’m picking him so much. No. 1 Hibernacle (1-to-1) is the only danger.
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Race 5 picks: 14-9-1
No. 14 Georgie W needs help to get in, as this gelded newcomer is on the also-eligible list, but that bullet work last out really sticks out to me. And at 12-to-1 morning-line, I would have to take a shot. No. 9 Decanted (9-to-2) ran the best race of her career last out, and if Flavien Prat employs similar aggressive tactics she’s the horse to beat. No. 1 He’s Got Swagger (4-to-1) might want 12 furlongs, but he’ll be coming especially after getting 7 pounds from his elder rivals.
Race 6: 7-4-5
No. 7 Run Classic (2-to-1) failed as the favorite in the Commonwealth. While he made the lead, the flow of the race indicates he just got beat versus any real excuse. Lifetime record indicates an ability to bounce back from poor performances, and the drop in class with aggressive rider Reylu Gutierrez staying aboard will make this one tough to catch.
Race 7 picks: 11-8-6
Second time in Thurby we’ve picked trainer Matt Shirer, but this time we get Luis Saez in the bike. No. 11 Fearless Kristie (3-to-1) has been left with a lot to do in her races, but she gets the kitchen sink treatment today: new rider, blinkers on and a drop in class with the cutback. If our pick can’t reach the wire first it might be because No. 8 Kiki Krazy (7-to-2) had a front-end advantage.
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Race 8 picks: 3-8-7
One of the more likely winners on the day is No. 3 Morning Cup (5-to-2), who is a front-end threat on the drop in class for solid connections (trainer Albert Stall Jr., jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.). He will undoubtedly be the favorite, but there is still opportunity in this race, as No. 8 Undismayed will run better than the 30-to-1 morning-line indicates.
Race 9 (St. Matthews Overnight Stakes) picks: 2-6-3
I was surprised to see No. 7 Bango (2-to-1) favored here (see, I don’t always pick Gaffalione). I think any of my three choices are at least as likely as the morning-line favorite, so have to take a shot against the fan favorite. No. 2 Miles Ahead (5-to-2) has a win at the track and distance, and if they go quick early he will benefit most.
Race 10 (Opening Verse Stakes) picks: 5-3-7
Numbers wise, I had a hard time separating No. 5 Set Piece (5-to-2) and No. 3 Annapolis (7-to-5), which makes sense considering their morning-line odds. And while Annapolis likely getting the jump on Set Piece concerns me a bit, their figures are just too close to take the shorter price. Set Piece also has four wins on the Churchill turf, for whatever that’s worth considering the evolution of the turf course the past few years.
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Race 11 picks: 4-3-8
Not too often you get to tab trainer Heather Irion and jockey Reynier Arrieta, but I can’t resist giving No. 4 Palace Kitten (8-to-1) one a shot at what should be a generous price given connections. The ratings stack up, and there is speed to chase from inside, middle and outside.
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This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky Derby 2023: Expert picks for Thurby at Churchill Downs
