2023 Kentucky Derby week at Churchill Downs: Ed DeRosa's picks and analysis for 502's Day

While Downs After Dark is “opening night” and a week before the Kentucky Derby, 502’s Day feels more like actual Kentucky Derby week.

It's one day after the Oaks and Derby draws, after all.

Enjoy your day, Louisville, and if you’re at Churchill Downs, make sure you pay attention to the cool race names referencing 502 lore.

Here are my picks and analysis for all nine races at the track Tuesday:

Race 1 (The Old Sears Building) picks: 5-1-2

Betting a horse at a short price to snap an 11-race losing streak is a tough scene, but as a speed figures player there is just no getting around No. 5 Girls House being the best of these. Throw in a drop in class and a cutback in distance, and she is tough to ignore. If she does not win this she might never win.

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Race 2 (The Galleria) picks: 2-1-5

Hard to go against a horse named Party At Grants at 502’s Day given trainer Grant Forster’s Central Avenue parties are legendary. Thankfully, the horse fits, too, and at a nice price (10-to-1 morning line). Party At Grants ran even on debut going a mile at Mahoning and now gets Lasix for the second start and first with Forster.

Race 3 (The Brewery) picks: 1-5-7

Trainer Lynn Cash brings Musicmansandy back to Kentucky after a decent tour of the Mid- Atlantic where she won a race for her new connections. Cash drops in class for the return to the commonwealth, and Bejarano up on the rail should help this one take control of the race.

Race 4 (The Lynn’s Paradise Cafe) picks: 8-9-7

No. 8 Ramadhaan returns to dirt for the first try against winners, and I like that the aggressive Reylu Gutierrez has the mount, as some gas from the outside could surprise this field at a nice price. No. 9 A Little Big Crazy ships in for Jonathan Wong and, like our top pick, broke her maiden last out.

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Race 5 (The John E’s) picks: 2-6-8

There are few angles I like more than second start in U.S. for international turf horses, and that’s what we get with No. 2 Eidikos, who ran fine in stateside (and 4-year-old debut) when flattening out in a 9-furlong race four-and-a-half months between starts. Should improve here and is one of our top picks of the day. No. 6 Fuente Ovejuna the primary danger.

Race 6 (The Phoenix Hill Tavern) picks: 5-8-7

The primary opinion in this race is that neither of the morning line favorites, No. 1 Music Amore or No. 4 Sacred Beauty, are particularly appealing. This is the type of race as a bettor that I would focus more on beating the two favorites than worrying about my “top pick,” but picking is the name of this game, so for the record No. 5 Addison is the upset special here at 15-to-1 morning line. She has some competitive numbers and connections that won’t attract money. We’ll take a shot at a big price.

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Race 7 (The Dirt Bowl) picks: 9-4-8

A trio of debut runners caught my eye in this race with No. 9 Little Prankster my most fancied given the solid sales price, a sire with 16% first-out progeny, and a dam whose lone other starter is already a winner.

Race 8 (The Jim Porter’s Good Times Emporium) picks: 1-9-3

Another race where the horses look pretty competitive from a class standpoint, but from a “numbers” standpoint, No. 1 Agent Peter Graves stands tallest. The break will be key, but if he starts on top, he won’t look back.

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Race 9 (The Toy Tiger) picks: 6-9-5

We start how we end, with a maiden race in which I really don’t trust a lot of the field, but No. 6 Tshiebwe has shown a lot of zip early, and I love the forward types in these 1 ¼-mile maiden races. There is just no one else to run with this one, and at his morning price of 7-2 it would be one of my best bets of the week.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky Derby 2023: Betting picks for 502's Day at Churchill Downs