2023 Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Preview

Zachary Krueger previews the fantasy outlooks of Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, and the rest of the Indianapolis Colts.

2022 Stats Rank

Points per game: 17.0 (30th)
Total yards per game: 311.6 (27th)
Plays per game: 65.5 (9th)
Pass attempts + sacks per game: 39.1 (8th)
Dropback EPA per play: -0.14 (31st)
Rush attempts per game: 25.8 (19th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.18 (30th)

Coaching Staff

We can't mention the coaching staff without first mentioning how we were all spared an entire season of Jeff Saturday roaming the sidelines. It wasn't long ago that Saturday, who went 1-7 during his tenure, felt like the favorite to land the head coaching gig before the team ultimately decided to hire Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen to fill the vacancy.

Steichen's offenses ranked 12th and third in points per game during his two seasons in Philly and were fourth in overall EPA per play (0.081) over that span. His ability to maximize the dual-threat capabilities of Jalen Hurts resulted in an MVP-caliber performance for Hurts last season and an appearance in Super Bowl LVII.

The Eagles kept opposing defenses on their toes under Steichen, as they also ranked fifth in neutral pace of play and were third with an 18 percent no-huddle rate. Steichen signing with the Colts was already considered an excellent hire for a team needing an offensive overhaul. Still, the significance of his signing was amplified when the team selected Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson as the No. 4 overall pick in this year's draft.

A hyper-athletic but raw talent, Richardson has a chance to be one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks the league has ever seen. However, he'll need the kind of high-end coaching Steichen showed in Philly to help get him there. Steichen has a handful of weapons to work with in his first year with the Colts and a string of recent successes that's led many to believe he's the right man for the job in Indy. If he can replicate some of what we saw during his time with the Eagles, then the Colts could have several fantasy values lurking in the later rounds of fantasy drafts.

Passing Game

QB: Anthony Richardson, Gardner Minshew, Sam Ehlinger
WR: Michael Pittman, Mike Strachan
WR: Alec Pierce, Ashton Dulin
WR: Isaiah McKenzie, Josh Downs
TE: Jelani Woods, Mo-Alie Cox, Kylen Granson

When people talk about Anthony Richardson being a raw talent, it's generally implied that he struggles as a passer. Often, this trope, while true, lacks context to just how much work Richardson may need. To add context, I looked back at the last five NFL draft classes and the 57 quarterbacks drafted over that span. Of those quarterbacks, Richardson ranks 56th in overall completion percentage (54.7 percent). He's one of 11 drafted quarterbacks in the sample, with a completion percentage under 60 percent for his college career. Of those quarterbacks, Daniel Jones is the only one fantasy drafters are taking in 2023.

On passes that traveled 10 yards or less, Richardson's completion percentage is a dismal 53.2 percent per Pro Football Focus. None of this sounds good, but one advantage Richardson has over most quarterbacks to come before him is his surreal athleticism.

There's no denying Richardson is the best athlete we've seen at quarterback since Cam Newton. His elite athleticism has allowed him to be not only an elite runner (more on that later) but to buy him ample time in the pocket. While Richardson is far from a polished passer, his 9.9 pressure-to-sack rate is an elite trait. For some perspective, Patrick Mahomes' 10.4 percent pressure-to-sack rate since 2020 ranks first in the league (min. 300 pressures). Richardson will undoubtedly regress a bit here in the NFL — especially early on — but his ability to buy time and extend plays should give him ample opportunities to air it out as he develops.

Regarding this season, expectations for Richardson as a passer should be tempered. Even if he starts a full 17-game slate, his ceiling is likely in the neighborhood of 3,000 passing yards and 20 passing touchdowns. However, his overall fantasy outlook remains sky-high, given his rushing upside.

Richardson's development as a passer will have a direct impact on the short and long-term outlook for Michael Pittman. Set to enter his fourth season with the Colts, Pittman narrowly missed a second-consecutive 1,000-yard campaign in 2022, as he finished with a line of 99-925-4. Despite posting a career-high in receptions, a defunct passing game led by noodle-armed Matt Ryan made life difficult for Pittman and his managers in 2022. His 7.7 ADOT was a sharp drop from the 10.3 ADOT he enjoyed in 2021 and ranked 46th amongst qualified receivers (min. 80 targets). It's safe to assume Pittman's ADOT will rebound in 2023, but his 141 targets could prove difficult to replicate if Richardson starts the majority of games this season.

From a player comparison standpoint, it could be worth noting that in Cam Newton's rookie season, Panthers wide receivers saw an average of 16.4 targets per game — ranking 28th in the league. After Lamar Jackson took over for the Ravens in Week 11 of the 2018 season, his receivers ranked dead last with 13.4 targets per game. Pittman has the benefit of being the WR1 on his team and should lead in targets by default. But the overall volume of targets could take a hit this season.

Pittman finished last season as the PPR WR20 in fantasy points per game (13.8) and is currently going as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 in fantasy. While he may hit this mark in 2023, it's unlikely he drastically outperforms it. A historically inefficient player, any significant drop in targets could result in Pittman finishing well outside the top 30 in scoring and has him feeling more like a potential bust at his current price.

Hoping to take a step forward in his second season is 2022 second-rounder, Alec Pierce. A deep threat with 4.41 speed, Pierce closed out his rookie season with a line of 41-593-2 on 78 targets and saw 243 of his yards come on targets 20-plus yards downfield. Pierce's field-stretching ability could pair nicely with Richardson's big arm — which is among the strongest in the league already. Like Pittman, Pierce could be hard to trust on a week-to-week basis but is a great boom-or-bust pick in best ball or DFS contests.

The slot receiver position will likely be up for grabs when the Colts enter camp. Free agent signing Isaiah McKenzie currently tops the depth chart at the position, but the 28-year-old receiver has never gone for more than 423 yards in his career — which came in 2022 as a member of the Bills. McKenzie is explosive and could open Week 1 as the Colts starting slot receiver, but rookie Josh Downs could supplant McKenzie at any point in the season.

Downs saw 89 percent of his snaps come from the slot as a receiver at North Carolina. He was a two-year starter for the Tar Heels who declared after a junior season in which he went for 83-929-11 in 10 games. In the previous season, Downs totaled 1,273 and averaged an elite 7.5 YAC/REC. Downs' saw his YAC/REC drop by 3.5 yards last season, but his ability after the catch is a plus.

The tight end position for the Colts is an interesting one. Jelani Woods leads an athletically talented bunch that is also widely unproven outside of Mo-Alie Cox. Woods totaled 25 catches for 312 yards and three touchdowns last season, while tight end Kylen Granson followed closely behind (31-302-0). This is a tight end room with a lot to prove. Their fantasy outlooks for this season aren't great, but if there's anything that gives me an ounce of hope, it's the way high-volume rushing quarterbacks have targeted the quarterback position, which I touched on in an article last year.

There's little reason to target Colts tight ends at this point in the offseason, but it wouldn't be surprising if a player like Woods emerged as an occasional streaming option at various points in the season. Rookie quarterbacks tend to love their tight end safety blankets.

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Rushing Game

RB: Jonathan Taylor, Zack Moss, Evan Hull, Deon Jackson
OL (L-R): Bernhard Raimann, Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, Braden Smith

It's no secret that Jonathan Taylor is one of the best running backs in fantasy when healthy. An ankle injury suffered in Week 4 saw Taylor miss three games early on, but he still managed three top-12 finishes in his final six games before being sidelined permanently after Week 15.

Make no mistake about it; Taylor was a fantasy bust in 2023. But at 24 years old and with a (hopefully) clean bill of health, there's little reason to be out on Taylor this season.

An early and obvious positive for Taylor is the likelihood of him playing in a run-heavy offense this season. Under Steichen, the Eagles ranked seventh in expected fantasy points on the ground, suggesting the Colts may be a top-five team in rush attempts this season. Taylor, of course, is the unquestioned favorite to lead the backfield in attempts. He's an efficient back who has averaged 3.37 yards after contact per attempt for his career and has forced a missed tackle on 20 percent of his career attempts.

The downside for Taylor is the potential cut down in target volume. While he's never been a receiving back in Christian McCaffrey's or Austin Ekeler's ilk, Taylor has seen 25.7 percent of his PPR points come through the air. High-volume rushing quarterbacks have historically been unkind to running backs in the receiving game, as they're often more inclined to run from danger rather than check down to their running backs.

Taylor has also seen 24 of his 33 career rushing touchdowns come in goal-to-go situations. In two seasons under Steichen, Jalen Hurts accounted for 23 of the Eagles' 57 rushing touchdowns, with all but three coming in goal-to-go situations. We'd expect Richardson to be used similarly to Hurts down near the goal line, vulturing a handful of touchdowns that would have typically gone to Taylor in previous seasons. Taylor's upside is that of a top-five fantasy back in 2023. However, Richardson's presence in the offense could relegate him to more of a low-end RB1.

When Richardson isn't stealing touchdowns from Taylor, he'll be stealing rush attempts. He'll be in the mix with Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, and Josh Allen for the most designed rushes at quarterback and could very well lead the position in rushing yards by year's end. Richardson's elite rushing floor, coupled with whatever he provides through the air, will make him a high-upside QB1 the moment he steps on the field.

Zack Moss is expected to serve as the early backup to Taylor. Like Taylor, Moss entered the league in 2020 and was traded to Indianapolis in exchange for Nyheim Hines last season. While he never really fit in with the Bills, Moss saw some meaningful work with the Colts down the stretch. In the final four games of the season, Moss rushed for 69-334-1. He finished 2022 averaging a career-high 3.04 YCO/ATT and could see a minor role in Steichen's offense after we witnessed him deploy multiple backs with the Eagles.

Rookie Evan Hull is a player worth monitoring throughout the season, especially if Taylor ever misses time. While Moss is the likely favorite to handle any touches vacated by Taylor, Hull's body of work during his days at Northwestern both as a runner (488-2417-18) and a receiver (94-851-4) is enough to suggest he could earn some touches as the season unfolds. However, he's firmly off the fantasy radar barring an injury to either Taylor or Moss.

Win Total

Bet MGM Over/Under: 6.5

Pick: Over

The Colts won just four games last season, but it's hard to imagine this team being as bad in 2022. The eight games under Saturday can be thrown out altogether, and one less Matt Ryan is good for all parties involved. We have yet to touch on Gardner Minshew joining the team this offseason, but any games Richardson wouldn't start will feature Minshew, who played under Steichen in Philly. Minshew is more than familiar with the offense and has proven to be one of the more capable backups in the league. If you need more than the new regime and a talented young quarterback to get you to buy in, consider the fact the Colts play in an AFC South that includes a soon-to-be rebuilding Titans team and a currently rebuilding Texans team. Per Sharp Football Analysis , they also have the third easiest schedule heading into the year based on Vegas' projected win totals. Steichen is no stranger to building up quarterbacks cut from a similar cloth as Richardson and should give him the keys to the offense sooner than later. Playing in a star-studded AFC, this team is probably a year or two from the playoffs, but three more wins than last year's busted squad feels well within the range of outcomes.