Fantasy football analyst Dalton Del Don analyzes some key figures with 2023 NFL training camps just a few weeks away.
Christian Watson is being overvalued
Watson was highly impressive during a dominant rookie campaign (after a rough start!) that included the second-highest Passer Rating when targeted. But there are some red flags for a player going in the top 50 picks on some platforms (81.9 on Yahoo). Watson has incoming TD regression and has never recorded 1,000 receiving yards during any season throughout his football career (and he’s older than Justin Jefferson).
He also battled multiple injuries as a rookie, but Green Bay’s switch at quarterback is most worrisome of all. Aaron Rodgers didn’t have his best season last year, but Watson goes from an inner circle Hall of Famer to a QB with one career start. According to Mr. Reception Perception, Watson benefitted from Rodgers’ improvisation and ability to extend plays. Meanwhile, Love has reportedly favored Romeo Doubs all offseason — just like he did last summer. The Packers added rookie WR Jayden Reed in Round 2, and the switch in QBs brings a real question as to target preference compared to 2022 (as well as efficiency).
Watson scored nine touchdowns in limited playing time as a rookie and has top-10 fantasy WR in his range of outcomes, but his downside is also greater than others going in Rounds 4 or 5, which is where expert consensus rankings put him. Some disagree, but I’m out on Watson’s ADP this year.
Nico Collins has sleeper appeal in 2023
Collins had quietly intriguing underlying stats last season, and Houston has 350+ vacated targets with Brandin Cooks gone (his replacement is a 31-year-old Robert Woods who just finished outside the top-75 WRs in yards per route run). Collins’ air yardage numbers when on the field last year were elite, and he’s about to see a significantly increased role (assuming DeAndre Hopkins doesn’t sign in Houston).
The Texans should also experience a huge upgrade in quarterback play going from the shaky Detective Davis Mills to rookie CJ Stroud, who showed incredible accuracy in college. Collins could erupt during Year 3 while featured in the Julio Jones role in a Kyle Shanahan offense, yet he’s not going until Round 12 or later in fantasy drafts.
BONUS: TV mid-year review
"Succession" has been the best television show so far this year, with "The Bear" right behind. I enjoyed "Fatal Attraction" more than most critics (although this one gets it), while "Dead Ringers" was another strong TV take on a movie. "Barry"'s final season and "The Last of Us"' first were both very good, while "The Idol" was so bad it was kind of good (same with "And Just Like That"). "Black Mirror"s newest season was its worst, but “Loch Henry” was a standout episode. I didn’t love "Beef" as much as most — give me "Poker Face" instead.
It’s been a great year for comedies, highlighted by "The Eric Andre Show", "Jury Duty", "Party Down", "I Think You Should Leave", "Dave", "The Other Two" and "Bupkis". Finally, as someone who watches too much TV, I surprisingly didn’t watch "Oz" until recently. It’s a strong contender for top-10 all time, but I’m admittedly a sucker for the genre.