2023 Detroit Lions Fantasy Preview

Lawrence Jackson breaks down the 2023 Lions from every angle, including the passing game, running game and win total.

2022 Stats (Rank)

Points per game: 26.6 (5th)
Total yards per game: 380 (4th)
Plays per game: 64.2 (14th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 36 (16th)
Drop back EPA per play: 0.17 (3rd)
Rush attempts per game: 28.2 (13th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.07 (18th)

Coaching Staff

Despite an overall record of 17-28-1, third-year Lions’ head coach Dan Campbell enters 2023 with high exceptions. After starting 1-6 in 2022, the Lions won eight of their next 10 games to finish 9-8 while staying in the playoff hunt until Week 18. Campbell and his staff started the off-season off by acquiring several starters/upgrades in free agency. They followed that up by having (in my opinion) the best draft, selecting a handful of potential year-one starters. As a former player, Campbell’s coaching style is relatable and player-friendly so it’s no secret as to why he gets the most out of his players. He also employs a coaching staff of mostly former players.

Spearheading the offense will be second-year offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. He’s been in the Lions’ building since 2019 (where he started as offensive quality control coach) and got off to a hot start in his first year of play calling last season. The Lions’ offense was fourth-best overall in 2022 and fifth in scoring. He deplores a diverse, gap-run scheme that gets the most usage out of multiple backs with different skill sets. Johnson often is looking to set up the defense by running the same play from different formations, only to come back to it at a pivotal point in the game. The Lions did well this off-season by bringing in rookies who fit his scheme perfectly.

Passing Game

QB: Jared Goff, Nate Sudfeld, Hendon Hooker
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kalif Raymond
WR: Marvin Jones, Trinity Benson
WR: Josh Reynolds, Antoine Green
TE: Sam LaPorta, Brock Wright, James Mitchell

After turning in a QB14 (on a points-per-game basis) season in fantasy in 2022, Goff is ready to run it back. It's his highest finish since becoming the Lions’ quarterback and on par with how he fared as the Rams’ starter. Despite his exceptional TD: INT ratio (29 and seven) last season, he still likely won't be considered a weekly fantasy option. In Weeks 9-18 of last season Goff was incredibly efficient throwing 17 touchdowns to only one interception, but it was still only good enough for QB13 (points per game). Goff will be better in real football more so than fantasy. He’ll be solid, but there are just too many quarterbacks with dual-threat abilities that you’ll take over him. He's a good point guard to run Ben Johnson’s offense.

St. Brown enters his third season with expectations through the roof. He's looking to take his game to the next level by running more downfield routes, which may be needed with Williams missing the first six games of the season. Whatever the case, St. Brown is sure to continue being a PPR machine after posting a 106-1161-6 stat line in 2022 (good for WR10 in fantasy). In the absence of Williams, Jones, Reynolds, and Raymond will look to pick up the slack by providing depth behind St. Brown. All three have been subject to waiver wire pickups in recent seasons, but you likely won't be drafting them in any scenario. It'd make more sense to draft Williams and wait it out. Don't sleep on rookie seventh-round pick Antoine Green out of North Carolina who went 43-798-7 in his final collegiate season. He graded out at 79.5 in Emory Hunt's Football Gameplan Draft Guide and is his No. 4 ranked receiver (at the X position).

LaPorta could be a nice wildcard for this Lions’ offense as he provides them with the skills of a top-flight H-back. George Kittle recently said that the Lions got a steal in LaPorta and that he’ll be the best tight end in his class. The Lions didn't get much out of the tight end position after trading away T.J. Hockenson midway through the 2022 season. Wright, Mitchell, and Zylstra will serve as backups to LaPorta when it comes to the receiving game. It's hard to trust a rookie tight end in fantasy out of the gate, but LaPorta could potentially be the Lions’ second receiver out of the gate.

Running Game

RB: David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Craig Reynolds, Mohammed Ibrahim,
OL (L-R): Taylor Decker, Jonah Jackson, Frank Ragnow, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, Penei Sewell

This backfield will be fun to watch in 2022. In going from Jamaal Williams/D’Andre Swift to Montgomery/Gibbs, you're getting a little more pop to your offense from both lanes. Montgomery is coming off his worst rushing yardage total in a season (801), but he has value and a chance to outdo his career-high eight rushing touchdowns. The better back for the Lions though will be Gibbs. He’ll step in and be what the Lions had hoped for in Swift, who had two consecutive seasons of at least 70 targets. Gibbs runs better in between the tackles than people would like to give him credit for (based on his size). Gibbs is an elite receiver at the running back position and will be a top-10 fantasy option out of the gate. The value is staring us all right in the face.

The Lions offensive line is what makes this offense go, it's one of the most well-rounded units in the league. Led by Sewell (who occasionally shows his receiving prowess), the line rivals that of the Eagles’ and Falcons’. Sewell and company will be the reason the Lions have multiple fantasy assets in the running game and why Goff can sit back like a surgeon and chop up defenses.

Win Total

After going 9-8 last season (their best record since 2017), the Lions hype is the talk of the town heading into 2023. They have the highest win total in the NFC North at 9.5, crazy right? This division is wide open and there’s a real chance each team could split with one another. The Lions made moves to improve their defense which ranked dead last in 2022. Bringing in C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Cameron Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley, and Brian Branch will help on the defensive backend. They drafted linebacker Jack Campbell with hopes that he can be their defensive leader for years to come. If the defense doesn’t drastically improve, it won’t be for a lack of trying. The schedule isn’t the easiest, with games against the Chiefs, Seahawks, Ravens, Chargers, and Cowboys on the horizon (all made the playoffs last season). The Lions could very well win this division with a consecutive nine-win season, so that’s where I’ll have them, at nine wins. This division will be the most interesting in 2023.