2021 NBA Draft: 10 bold predictions from the preseason revisited
Rookie Wire offered 10 bold predictions for the 2021-22 rookie class last October and made a vow at the time to come back after the season and see just how we did.
Well, it is that time to look back and review the results.
Our annual revisit of these bold predictions is our favorite time of the year. It typically just consists of us trying to convince basketball fans why we made the picks and why they should have come true, but ultimately didn’t.
Upon further review, this year proved to be no different.
Several predictions fell well short of expectations but to be fair, we were pretty close on a few. We just ask that you don’t alert the authorities at Freezing Cold Takes about the ones we missed badly on.
Here are the latest results with the verdict from each prediction.
Sharife Cooper will earn a standard NBA contract from the Hawks
Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Verdict: Wrong
The Hawks signed Cooper, the 48th pick, to a two-way contract last year after a strong run in summer league and the preseason. He ultimately logged just 13 appearances with the Hawks after spending the majority of the season in the NBA G League with the College Park Skyhawks. He was eventually waived by the Hawks on July 25.
Nets' Cam Thomas will average 20 minutes and have at least one 30-point game
Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Verdict: Partially right
We are going to take some credit for this one.
The 27th pick averaged 8.5 points, 2.4 rebounds and 1.2 assists in 67 games last season with the Nets. Thomas dropped a career-high 30 points on Feb. 4 in a loss to the Utah Jazz and had 10 total games with at least 20 points on the season. Unfortunately, Thomas came in just shy of 20 minutes per game, finishing at 17.6.
For more coverage on the Nets, visit Nets Wire
Trey Murphy III will set the NBA rookie record for 3-pointers
Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports
Verdict: Definitely wrong
Donovan Mitchell set the rookie 3-point record during the 2017-18 season with 187. In every iteration of this exercise, we have picked a different rookie to break this record but have come up short each time.
Tyler Herro was chosen the first time, and likely would have broken it but was limited to 55 games due to an injury and the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, we failed miserably with Aleksej Pokusevski (58 3-pointers) last year and once again missed with Murphy this time around.
However, Murphy turned in a solid rookie campaign, averaging 5.4 points and 2.4 rebounds in 62 games with 71 3-pointers. He even set the Pelicans rookie 3-point record with seven en route to a career-high 32 points on March 11.
Murphy saw a larger role with the team down the stretch and had several key performances to help the Pelicans make the playoffs. He could be a player to watch as a breakout candidate next season.
Alperen Sengun will finish on an All-Rookie Team
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Verdict: Wrong
We loved the Rockets‘ selection of Sengun and had high hopes for him last season. He was likely the victim of a logjam in the frontcourt but still had a strong campaign when he was on the court. In 72 games, Sengun averaged 9.6 points, 5.5 rebounds and 2.6 assists in 20.7 minutes. He ultimately wasn’t voted onto an All-Rookie team after finishing with only 13 second-team votes, the third most for a player that did not place. Sengun projects to play a large role with the Rockets next season after the team traded Christian Wood and should be in store for some big things.
For more coverage on the Rockets, visit Rockets Wire
Davion Mitchell will receive votes for NBA All-Defensive Team
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
Verdict: Wrong
Mitchell earned the “Off-Night” nickname in college and was viewed as perhaps the top defender in the draft last year. While he saw great success on that end of the floor in his first season in the league, Mitchell didn’t receive a vote in the All-Defensive Team balloting. It wouldn’t be surprising, though, to see Mitchell one day earn recognition for his defensive ability so keep an eye out for him the next time your favorite team faces the Kings.
Josh Giddey will register at least five triple-doubles with OKC
Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
Verdict: Wrong
Entering the draft, Giddey established himself as a player that can fill the stat sheet on a nightly basis in the National Basketball League. He was the youngest Australian to accomplish the feat in the NBL and eventually had four during the 2020-21 season.
He’d also make some triple-double history in the NBA.
In February, Giddey became the only teenager in history to record three consecutive triple-doubles and was just the second rookie ever to reach that mark (Oscar Robertson, 1960-61). With his four total triple-doubles, Giddey tied Luka Doncic for the most by a teenager.
Giddey suffered a hip injury shortly after that run and was eventually shut down for the rest of the season after the All-Star break. He would have had a great chance to add to his triple-double total had he not been injured so we’re holding our head high on this prediction.
For more coverage on the Thunder, visit Thunder Wire
Jalen Suggs will hit at least two game-winning shots
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Verdict: Wrong
Suggs was fresh off of his halfcourt buzzer-beater in the NCAA Tournament when he was drafted last year by the Magic. Unfortunately, Suggs had an up-and-down rookie campaign after dealing with multiple injuries that limited him to just 48 games. He still managed to average 11.8 points, 4.4 assists and 3.6 rebounds while earning a place in the NBA Rising Stars game at All-Star Weekend. He may not have hit any game-winners last season but we’re willing to bet he’ll have some in the future.
Evan Mobley will lead all rookies in rebounding and have at least 10 double-doubles
David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
Verdict: Correct!
Mobley was unanimously named to the All-Rookie first team after averaging 15 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.7 blocked shots last season. He led all rookies in rebounds, blocks and double-doubles (21) to cap off a tremendous rookie season. He narrowly missed out on winning Rookie of the Year and, depending on who you talk to, likely should have won but the third pick dazzled in his first year and has a bright future ahead.
Jalen Green will lead rookie class in scoring, and produce at least 30 20-point games
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Verdict: Wrong.
The No. 2 pick last year averaged 17.3 points, 3.4 rebounds and 2.6 assists in 67 games with the Rockets, earning All-Rookie first-team honors. He was second in scoring average among all rookies, finishing just behind Cade Cunningham (17.4 points). He led the class with 26 20-point games but finished just shy of our guess of 30.
Green really turned it on toward the end of the season after scoring at least 30 points in five of the Rockets’ last seven games, including a career-high 41 points in their finale on April 10.
A player drafted outside of the top three will win Rookie of the Year
Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
Verdict: Correct
Scottie Barnes, the fourth pick, narrowly claimed the Rookie of the Year award after averaging 15.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.1 steals in 74 games. Barnes received 48 of the 100 first-place votes from a global panel of sportswriters and broadcasters and finished with 378 total points, topping the 363 points for Evan Mobley. The 15-point difference between Barnes and Mobley was the smallest margin in the balloting under the current voting format, which began in the 2002-03 season.
Including Barnes and Mobley, Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green and Franz Wagner also had cases to win the Rookie of the Year award. The voting results illustrated just how impressive the rookie class was last season as it has the potential to go down as one of the best in history.
