10 reasons Michigan football will win the 2022 national championship
Before the 2022 season, pundits expected Michigan football to take a massive step back, not just in the overall college football landscape but within the scope of the Big Ten.
2021 was seen as a feel-good story, but a one-off. However, the Wolverines proved last season was no fluke. The maize and blue ran the table, beat Ohio State on the road in Columbus, won the conference again, and are the 2-seed in the impending College Football Playoff.
At the moment, the Wolverines are expected to beat TCU in the semifinal and face either Georgia or Ohio State (again) in the national championship game. Of course, it’s no sure thing that Michigan gets past the Horned Frogs to advance, but here are the 10 reasons we think it will, and why the maize and blue stand a good chance to win the whole shebang this year.
J.J. McCarthy
Photo: Isaiah Hole
J.J. McCarthy entered 2022 with all of the promise in the world as a former five-star. He started the year impressively, winning the starting job over incumbent Cade McNamara. As the season wore on, the narrative became that McCarthy couldn’t pass the ball except on short or intermediate routes. Looking much like a game manager for the bulk of Big Ten play, McCarthy returned to his early season form in the biggest game of the year. Against Ohio State, he threw multiple deep balls with precision, taking advantage of the Buckeyes’ desire to stop the run, thus pulling the safeties in, allowing for the pass game to thrive.
McCarthy continued his solid big-play ability in the Big Ten Championship game, suggesting that perhaps he plays his best in the biggest games. That he’s becoming a star in college football in the final games of the season indicates that he could continue his upward trajectory in the College Football Playoff.
Jim Harbaugh hasn’t had a quarterback with McCarthy’s capability, and with him being unleashed, it could take the offense to the next level.
But he isn’t the only one.
Donovan Edwards
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Despite having his hand in a cast, Edwards has been punishing teams.
The sophomore tailback appears the type who gets better as the game goes on as he gets carries. Though Ohio State fans will call his performance in The Game a fluke, Edwards had similar performances throughout the season, including in the Big Ten Championship game.
Yes, at the start of games, Edwards may average two or three yards a carry. But he’ll keep pushing, and then he’ll break the big one. And then another. It’s become a trend, dating to the Penn State matchup.
And, if Edwards’ hand is healthy, he becomes that much more of a weapon, as he’s arguably Michigan’s best receiver. Because of his speed and position, he’s a huge mismatch for any defense.
Edwards won the MVP in the Big Ten Championship game, and he’s been as impressive as Blake Corum, who was a Heisman contender all year before he was sidelined with injury. The big games haven’t been too big for him, and the College Football Playoff is but another opportunity for him to increase his newfound legendary status in Ann Arbor.
Overall offensive versatility
Photo: Isaiah Hole
The Ohio State game was proof that stopping the run at all costs can come at your own peril.
After Week 2, pretty much every college football team that Michigan faced decided the best course of action was to play two deep safeties to keep J.J. McCarthy from going off, opening the door for the Wolverine run game. It helped elevate Blake Corum’s game, but when teams sold out to stop the run (a la Indiana) eventually McCarthy burned them.
The Buckeyes learned that lesson early, and then again late, as Michigan torched them with the pass in the first half and the run in the second.
We said after the Iowa game that the Wolverines can play whatever type of game a defense wants to play. You want to stop the run? OK, McCarthy will pass over the top. You plan on stopping the deep ball? You’re going to be giving Edwards room to work. Working the front and deep, leaving the middle open? Be prepared to deal with Michigan’s tight ends, Ronnie Bell, and Cornelius Johnson.
After some conversations with people behind the scenes, Michigan still hasn’t utilized many of its offensive packages, so we could still see some explosive play designs we haven’t yet witnessed. Basically, pick your poison.
Players are peaking at the right time
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Michigan beat Ohio State and won the Big Ten Championship without arguably its two best players, one on either side of the ball.
Donovan Edwards has been electric in service of Blake Corum, while multiple edge rushers have come on strong with Mike Morris out. Corum isn’t likely to play in the playoff, but Morris should be back, playing alongside Jaylen Harrell, Braiden McGregor and Eyabi Okie, who all did admirable jobs in rushing the passer in his absence.
Offensively, other players have stepped up when needed. Ronnie Bell made some huge catches in the past two games, as has Cornelius Johnson. Colston Loveland has been a revelation, and looks similar to Erick All in his pass-catching ability. Luke Schoonmaker returned and made a couple huge plays in the Big Ten Championship game. Will Johnson has emerged as a bona fide star in the secondary, despite being a first-year player. Michael Barrett has played phenomenally, and Junior Colson has been solid.
That’s a long list of players who have stepped up in the biggest moments.
Ultimately, the no-star defense has turned into a semi-star team, in that you never know which players are going to step up any given play. That gives Michigan a good chance in the playoff.
Team has seen what it takes firsthand
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After losing to Georgia, 34-11, in last year’s College Football Playoff semifinal, multiple Michigan players stayed behind to watch Georgia hoisting the Orange Bowl trophy. Those players were pivotal to this year’s team: Blake Corum (who is likely out for the playoff), J.J. McCarthy, Donovan Edwards, Mike Morris and Andrel Anthony. They were soaking the moment in, realizing how close, yet how far, they were, and knowing what it takes to face off against a monolith like the Bulldogs.
There’s something to be said about visualization. J.J. McCarthy meditates before every game, and multiple teammates have taken to doing the same thing. We’ll get to this more later, but there’s also a difference between being happy to be there and understanding what it takes to win it all. Last year, Michigan’s main goals were to beat Ohio State and win the Big Ten. Now? They want more. And they know what it takes to get it.
Michigan has played Georgia (or Ohio State) before
Photo by: Isaiah Hole
Something of a corollary to the last point, it’s one thing to make it, it’s another thing to take it. And considering how dominant Georgia was, it gave the Wolverines a lot to think about this past offseason.
For any team working to earn a college football national championship in today’s day and age, there’s certainly a ‘to be the man, you have to beat the man’ type of necessity. It’s a climb, something of a journey, rather than a team of destiny coming in and taking it all out of nowhere. Georgia won it all last year, but it had to get past Alabama — something it had to work at for years before finally doing it. Clemson had to get past Florida State and then Alabama. For Michigan, it had to get past Ohio State (which it has done twice now) with Georgia the potential final boss, once again.
Now that the Wolverines have a better idea of what to expect should they face the Bulldogs again, that will help tremendously. They’ll understand the type of physicality needed. The offensive coaches will know better than to run long-developing plays against that SEC defense. The defense will know better what to do against that offense.
And if Ohio State manages to upset Georgia? Well, Michigan knows what it takes to beat the Buckeyes, too.
Of course, the first step is getting past TCU, who very well might be in the same position as Michigan was last year — glad to be there, but not really knowing what it takes to get the job done in that semifinal. The Wolverines need to take care of business in game one, and should they arrive in Los Angeles, they’ll be armed with knowledge against either team it faces that it didn’t have previously. And that counts for something.
Defensive second-half adjustments
Photo: Isaiah Hole
From the Indiana game forward, only one team has had any sort of success against Michigan in the second half: Illinois. And the Illini did it against a quite depleted Wolverine defense.
Jesse Minter has been phenomenal in his halftime adjustments, allowing just 29 points total scored in the second half of games from Week 6 onward — 14 of which came by Illinois. The Illinois game removed, that’s 15 points — an average of 2.14 points scored in the second half in seven games.
No one thought Minter would hold the explosive Ohio State offense in check the way he did. Purdue did a solid job scoring 9, which still isn’t a heckuva lot. We’ll see if TCU can do better, and if it cannot, then it will be up to either Georgia or Ohio State (again) to do better. But whatever the defense is doing in the second half, it bodes well for the Wolverines down the stretch.
Easier track this year than in previous
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This is no offense to TCU, but facing the Horned Frogs in the semifinal is a much more advantageous path for the Wolverines than what they faced last year. Georgia ended up being national champions and were long seen as the best team in college football before the unexpected upset in the SEC Championship game. But even if Michigan was to get past Georgia in the first round, it would have seen Alabama in the championship game — not exactly an easy path.
This year, the Wolverines face a team that’s never made the playoff , TCU, and one that matches up favorably given the Michigan defense and lack of run defense played by the Horned Frogs. If Michigan can get past the first round, it will either have a rematch with Georgia or Ohio State, a team the Wolverines beat by 22 points on the road without their best two players.
At the moment, Michigan is favored to get past TCU and have a rematch with Georgia. If that happens, a good 60-minute game plan and execution and the national championship trophy could be Ann Arbor-bound.
Overall line play
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Now, should Michigan advance to the championship game, it should be noted that Georgia is no slouch on either side of the ball. Like the Wolverines, the Bulldogs have a Joe Moore Award-finalist group on their offensive line, and while the defensive front is still scary, it’s not nearly as vaunted as it was a year ago. Also, Michigan’s O-line is perhaps better than last year’s which won the Joe Moore Award.
The other side of the ball has been exemplary for the Wolverines, as well. Without having sole reliance on Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo, the no-star defense has been solid up front, and has been particularly stellar against the run, which has been Georgia’s bread and butter.
This isn’t to say Michigan’s lines are better than Georgia’s, but it’s probably the only team in football that can compare. And that gives the Wolverines a chance.
The team is confident, not just happy to there
Photo: Isaiah Hole
We covered this already, but it’s worth mentioning on its own: Michigan hasn’t achieved its goals this year as it had at this time last year. Winning a national championship is the goal, not just beating Ohio State and winning the Big Ten.
That means that the climb is not done. Baby steps have been taken, and now it’s time for those steps to amount to another trophy.
Weirdly, despite several blowout wins and most games not being close, we still haven’t really seen Michigan put a full, complete game together. That says something, because even though the win in Columbus was dominant in the end, we haven’t seen the Wolverines play up to potential — a scary thought for any of the teams still on the schedule. There is no flinching by this team, and there are higher expectations this year compared to last. There is no fear playing against the nation’s best, because they believe they are the nation’s best. Perhaps the only time we’ve seen a Michigan team with that type of swagger of late has been 2016, and it probably hasn’t been at his level since 1997.
It’s been 25 years since the last national championship in Ann Arbor. It’s time for another.
