10 bold predictions for 2023-24 MLB offseason, including Mets and Yankees hauls

A season of bad baseball in New York can only mean one thing: an offseason full of intrigue, rumors, and the Yankees and Mets trying to buy their way back to contention.

I do think new Mets boss David Stearns wants to finish what Billy Eppler started with his sell-off at the trade deadline and turn the farm system into a foundation for sustained winning that eventually means less spending.

But that’s not the answer yet, and I don’t believe for a second that Steve Cohen will be content to write off the 2024 season as any type of rebuild. Not when a few bold moves could change everything.

Meanwhile, the Yankees have no choice but to go for it while Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge are still two of the very best players in baseball. So buckle up, the next few months should be a lot more interesting than the last several.

With that in mind, here are my Top 10 bold predictions for the offseason, mostly centered around the local teams...

1. Mets sign Shohei Ohtani

Cohen said he would be "opportunistic" with his spending this offseason, and what’s more opportunistic for a collector of high-priced art than the chance to acquire the Mona Lisa of baseball.

All the speculation is that the Japanese superstar wants to remain on the West Coast, but much of that may be based on his preference from six years ago when he signed with the Los Angeles Angels.

So who knows? But one thing is for sure: if Ohtani is willing to play in New York, Cohen will make the highest offer.

Furthermore, I think Ohtani’s elbow injury could work in the Mets’ favor. The bidding in general is likely to be lower than originally projected because he won’t pitch for at least a year, but he would have such an impact offensively for the Mets that Cohen could decide it’s worth the risk to pay whatever it takes to get him, further separating himself from the other offers.

2. Yankees sign Cody Bellinger

This seems like too perfect of a match for it not to happen. Of course, I thought the same thing when Corey Seager was a free agent two years ago and that didn’t happen, but the Yankees are in a more desperate situation now. And other than Ohtani, who will be too expensive for Hal Steinbrenner’s liking, Bellinger is the one free agent who can go a long way toward fixing their offense.

Michael King’s late-season dominance while transitioning to the starting rotation gives the Yankees even more freedom to make the offense their priority. Also, Judge hinted that the Yanks need more high-batting average hitters, and Bellinger -- who hit .307 with 29 doubles, 26 homers, and a .525 slugging percentage -- fills that request as well as the obvious need for more left-handed pop. And as a center fielder, he’s that much more valuable to them.

3. Mets go big for starting pitching

Stearns won in Milwaukee by acquiring/developing high-ceiling starting pitching via trades and the draft, so bulking up a weak starting rotation is sure to be his priority.

With that in mind, I think he’ll sign 25-year-old Yoshinobu Yamamoto as a free agent and then dip into the Mets’ newfound surplus of position player prospects to trade for another top starter.

There are several potential targets who are a year or two away from free agency for small-market teams, and thus probably available this winter.

Both Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff of the Milwaukee Brewers fit that category, so my first thought was for Stearns to trade with his old team because the Brewers certainly aren’t going to sign both of those guys.

However, Woodruff is out of the Brewers’ Wild Card series this week because a shoulder injury flared up -- the same injury that sidelined him for three months earlier this season. The 30-year old right-hander finished the year strong, pitching to a 2.28 ERA in 11 starts, but the shoulder could make a trade problematic.

In that case, other possibilities include Tyler Glasnow of the Tampa Bay Rays, Mitch Keller of the Pittsburgh Pirates, and Shane Bieber of the Cleveland Guardians.

4. Braves bow out of the playoffs early

The Braves were the best team in baseball this season, winning 104 games and bludgeoning opponents all season with their explosive offense. But they’ve had some starting pitching issues lately, losing Charlie Morton to a finger injury and Max Fried to a blister, which could make them vulnerable in the postseason.

For that reason, I’m taking the Philadelphia Phillies to knock off the Braves in the NLDS for a second straight season. The Phillies, coming off last year’s World Series run, can mash with the Braves, and in Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola they have starters who can dominate any lineup when they’re on their game.

5. Orioles win it all

The Orioles had a little magic in their 101-win season, as they posted the best record in the American League. Statistically they weren’t the best at anything except being clutch, which translated to a .287 batting average with runners in scoring position, easily the best in the majors.

It’s tempting to say that type of magic won’t translate to the postseason, but the Orioles are just young enough, and bursting with enough ascending talent, that I think they’ll run this hot streak all the way to a championship, defeating the Phillies in the World Series. Their starting pitching is good enough, with Kyle Bradish emerging as an ace, and I think the bullpen is deep enough to overcome the loss of injured closer Felix Bautista.

6. Mets hire Craig Counsell

I don’t believe there is any sort of wink-wink deal in place between Counsell and Stearns, but it just seems the stars are aligned. There has to be a reason the Brewers’ highly-regarded manager has rebuffed offers from owner Mark Attanasio for a new deal, making him free to sign elsewhere this winter, though it could be as simple as him contemplating a year off to watch his sons play baseball in college, as has been reported.

Also, Counsell grew up in Wisconsin and is likely very comfortable managing in Milwaukee. Still, one person who knows him well says he "burns to win championships" and speculates that Counsell might see Cohen’s big-budget Mets as giving him more opportunities in that regard -- with a much higher salary as well.

7. Cubs trade for Juan Soto

This is contingent on the Cubs losing Bellinger in free agency, as I’ve predicted. In that case, Soto is expected to be available, based on reports out of San Diego saying the Padres will reduce their payroll, as he heads into his free agent year.

Many teams will be reluctant to give up a package of players for a guarantee of only year from Soto. But if the Cubs do indeed lose Bellinger, on the heels of a late-season collapse that cost them a Wild Card spot, they may be desperate for a big-splash move to appease the Wrigley Field faithful and help keep their young-team heading in the right direction.

8. Yankees sign Jordan Montgomery

If the Yankees get Bellinger, Steinbrenner is almost certainly not doing another long-term mega-deal with a pitcher like Yamamoto. Not when he’s already locked into big bucks for Cole, Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, and Carlos Rodon.

So why not Montgomery, the lefty they traded for Harrison Bader in 2022. He’s an ideal fit behind Cole and Rodon (assuming he figures it out next year), coming off his age-30 season in which he pitched to a 3.20 ERA in 32 starts for the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers. 

It might take a five-year deal to get him, but he won’t cost as much as Yamamoto, and because Montgomery was traded during the season, it won’t cost the Yankees a draft pick, either.

9. Dodgers sign Blake Snell

This could depend partly on how the Dodgers fare in the playoffs, but after a number of pitching injuries this season they might feel the need to invest in someone like Snell, the likely NL Cy Young award winner.

A long-term deal would be a gamble because of Snell’s inconsistency, which has been the result of control issues and some nagging injuries that have limited his innings significantly. Even this season, while going 12-5 with a sparkling 2.25 ERA over 180 innings, Snell’s 99 walks were the most in the NL. But there is also a feeling among scouts that, at age 30, Snell is just beginning to fulfill his potential and could stay at this level for a few years.

10. Mets sign David Robertson

After a few well-publicized blow-up outings upon his arrival with the Miami Marlins in August, Robertson quietly found his groove again. In September he allowed runs in only one of 11 appearances, pitching to a 1.72 ERA for the final month of the season, or about as effectively as he pitched for the Mets before the sell-off at the trade deadline.

So why not bring him back and put him in the set-up role where he was supposed to be, with a healthy Edwin Diaz?

He’ll be 39 in April but his pitches still had plenty of life: opponents hit only .165 against his fastball/cutter, his primary pitch. The Mets obviously need to beef up their bullpen, and signing Robertson should be the first step in doing that.