The Worksheet: Week 10

It's hard to believe we're already heading into Week 10, but as we are, let me provide the disclaimer that I encourage you use the game by game tables and data points in conjunction with your own information and thought process rather than searching out your own players in the individual player diagnosis and turning that section into a linear start/sit guide. With that out of the way, let’s hit all of the Week 10 games....

Buffalo vs. New York (AFC)

• The 12 passes that Buffalo threw last week were the fewest in a game this season and fewest in a game since Denver attempted just eight passes in Week 10 of 2011.

• Sammy Watkins was targeted on a season high 53.3 percent of his routes last week. His previous high was 23.8 percent in Week 6.

• In two games facing Darrelle Revis last season, Watkins had five receptions for 84 yards combined on eight total targets.

• After allowing 198.6 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks through five weeks, the Jets have allowed 355, 333 and 381 yards over their past three.

• Tyrod Taylor ranks 5th in the league in passing points per attempt (.558 points). League average is .429 passing points per throw.

• The Jets allow just 3.0 yards per carry on the interior (guard to guard), best in the league. The Bills average 4.4 YPC on those runs, 8th most in the league.

• The Jets have just one touchdown this outside of the red zone, tied for last in the league. Buffalo leads the league with 14 touchdowns scored outside of the red zone.

• Eric Decker has converted 54.6 percent of his red zone targets for touchdowns (six of 11), the highest rate of all wide receivers with 10 or more targets.

• Last week, Chris Ivory was just the 11th player ever to have fewer than 30 rushing yards on 20 or more carries. His 26 yards on the ground were the fewest in league history for a player with 23 or more attempts.

• Ivory has just 84 rushing yards on 55 carries (1.5 YPC) over the past three weeks, 91 yards fewer rushing yards than the next player with at least 40 rushing attempts over that span.

• Ivory leads the league with 13 rushing attempts inside of the 5-yard line.

Trust: Eric Decker (Buffalo has been vulnerable to secondary receiving options and Decker has been falling out of bed to seven targets and a touchdown this season)

Bust: Tyrod Taylor (will need rushing to anchor his floor this week since his main target could be taken away and the Bills lack the receiver depth to exploit the secondary corners), LeSean McCoy (banged up yet again and this game sets up for a low floor, low ceiling week), Sammy Watkins (I really can’t see a scenario why the Jets wouldn’t just have Revis take him away here)

Reasonable Return: Brandon Marshall (you’re still using him and he’ll find his way a solid line), Ryan Fitzpatrick (has been a top-12 scorer in each of his past three complete games and Buffalo has allowed multiple touchdown passes in six games), Chris Ivory (reminded me last week that you can never completely fade volume and scoring opportunities), Karlos Williams (with McCoy limited and getting the scoring opportunities, he’s the back I’d turn to using), Charles Clay/Robert Woods (if Watkins is going to be negated, targets have to go elsewhere)

Jacksonville vs. Baltimore

• The last time the Jaguars won on the road was Week 13 of 2013.

• Blake Bortles already has 42 pass attempts in the red zone this season. He had 41 all of 2014.

• Bortles has thrown multiple touchdowns in six games this year, tied for the third most in the league. He threw multiple touchdowns just twice as a rookie.

• The only quarterbacks that failed to throw multiple touchdowns against the Ravens are Peyton Manning and Mike Vick.

• After having 15 percent of the team targets in Week 1, Allen Robinson has at least 23 percent in every game since.

• Baltimore has rushed for just 68.0 yards per game with a high of 77 yards over their past three games.

• Over their past three games, the Jaguars have only allowed 2.8 yards per carry, the lowest mark in the league over the past four weeks.

• In the only game that Steve Smith missed, Kamar Aiken led the team with 25.7 percent (nine) of the targets, his highest output of the season.

• The past seven quarterbacks to face the Jaguars have all scored 15 points or more and have averaged 295.8 yards passing.

Trust: Allen Robinson (dominating splash plays and in the red zone), Blake Bortles (has been a top-10 performer in five of his past seven)

Bust: Julius Thomas (has been a top-20 scoring tight end just once since returning), Crockett Gillmore (Jacksonville has handled inline tight ends well this season)

Reasonable Return: T.J. Yeldon (the volume and receiving ability holds that RB2 floor), Allen Hurns (great matchup and has scored in six straight games, but dealing with a foot injury), Joe Flacco (great floor matchup and was the QB6 in his last game without Smith, but also had two rushing touchdowns to elevate his day), Kamar Aiken (still believe he has more nuance to garner targets over Chris Givens although Givens could outscore him on half of the targets), Justin Forsett (has to be leaned on and although the Jags have defended the run well, have been giving to backs out of the backfield)

Carolina vs. Tennessee

• Antonio Andrews has played 53 percent and 63 percent of the Titans' snaps the past two weeks and has 39.4 percent of the team touches overall in those weeks.

• Dorial Green-Beckham's snaps rose for the 8th straight game as he played a season high 48 snaps this past week, seeing a season high 23 percent of the team targets.

• Despite missing one game, Delanie Walker has 12 or more points in six games, tied with Rob Gronkowski and Gary Barnidge for the most of all tight ends.

• In the first half over the past two weeks, quarterbacks facing the Panthers are 12-26 (46.2 percent) passing for 154 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

• In the second half of those games, quarterbacks are 35-66 (53 percent) for 452 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions.

• Over the past five weeks, Jonathan Stewart ranks 8th in touches (91), but 18th in fantasy points of all running backs.

• Points from rushing have accounted for 37.6 percent of Cam Newton's scoring output, this highest of all quarterbacks in the league.

• Newton has four touchdown passes in three games on the road this season with 10 touchdown passes in five games at home.

• Devin Funchess posted a season high 71 yards and a score on three receptions, but played fewer than 30 percent of the team snaps for the fourth straight week since their Week 5 bye.

Trust: Delanie Walker (the most consistent fixture in this inconsistent offense, Carolina has allowed a top-12 tight end in three consecutive games), Greg Olsen (the target hog in this offense has 60 plus yards in six of his past seven)

Bust: Marcus Mariota (Carolina has given up chunk points to off script offenses the past two weeks, but this passing game isn’t the Colts or Packers), Dorial Green-Beckham (the slow burn has almost reached a climax, but this is the wrong matchup to go in on this being the break out)

Reasonable Return: Cam Newton (two of the three big ceiling games from Cam this season have been against teams that can score a lot of points and have soft defenses so I see this as more of a floor, control the game week, but he’s shown his floor is higher this year than in previous years), Jonathan Stewart (he’s largely been a black hole of volume for fantasy and doesn’t catch passes, but is one of the few backs consistently seeing heavy volume in the run game), Antonio Andrews (he’s not anything special, but he’s also not a specialty back like his backups. The ceiling is still very low here)

Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh

• Antonio Brown's 45.6 points last Sunday were the most ever by a player in a game without scoring a touchdown.

• Brown has 66.2 percent of Landry Jones' passing yards over his past two appearances.

• Brown leads all receivers with 11 receptions of 25 yards or longer.

• Steelers receiver and tight end targets from Jones: Brown 16, Martavis Bryant 14, Markus Wheaton five, Heath Miller four.

• DeAngelo Williams' 170 rushing yards were the third most ever by a back 32 years or older and the most since Walter Payton's 177 rushing yards at age 32 in 1986.

• Williams is the only running back other than Devonta Freeman to have multiple weeks as the top running back scorer.

• Johnny Manziel has targeted Gary Barnidge on 14.5 percent of his throws. Josh McCown has targeted Barnidge on 21.3 percent of his passes.

• Cleveland is last in the NFL in rushing points per attempt (.387). League average is .569.

• Pittsburgh is allowing just .454 rushing points per attempt, the second fewest in the league.

Trust: Antonio Brown (his floor has been intact with Landry Jones), DeAngelo Williams (even with a foot injury, this is a dream matchup)

Bust: Johnny Manziel (if he starts, has proven he can’t succeed consistently in the pocket at this point in his career), Heath Miller (his target share has been all over the map, but he’s yet to prove he’s usable even on whim without Ben Roethlisberger), Landry Jones (in a week filled with streamable options, Jones has yet to show he has a usable fantasy floor), Isaiah Crowell (was a low end RB2 without Robert Turbin in the fold, but this matchup has a low floor and low ceiling)

Reasonable Return: Martavis Bryant (the target volume has remained steady as well as the touchdown ability, but the ceiling remains inconsistent, Gary Barnidge (move him down if Manziel starts, but if McCown starts the Steelers have been tight end friendly for fantasy), Travis Benjamin (ditto for Barnidge, only still has a ceiling left with Manziel), Josh McCown (the matchup is solid for a consistent passer), Duke Johnson (has overcome limited usage a weekly top-30 option)

Chicago vs. St. Louis

• The Rams haven't allowed a touchdown at home over their opponents' past 34 possessions.

• Todd Gurley has a touch on 58.2 percent of his snaps, highest rate in the league for players that average 30 or more snaps per game.

• Nick Foles averages just 15.4 passing yards per possession, lowest of all quarterbacks.

• Jeremy Langford played 74 percent of the team snaps and handled 21 of the 29 backfield touches for the Bears.

• Langford was the first rookie running back to have at least 70 rushing and receiving yards in the same game since Andre Ellington in 2013.

• St. Louis is allowing just 2.1 red zone trips per game (fewest in the league) and opponents to convert just 35.3 percent of their red zone opportunities for touchdowns, the lowest in the league.

• Since returning from injury, Alshon Jeffery has 26.8 percent, 45.5 percent and 40.0 percent of the Chicago targets with 25 or more points in each game.

• The only wide receivers to reach 80 receiving yards against the Rams this season have been Antonio Brown (108) and Larry Fitzgerald (99).

• Jay Cutler has 17 or more points in all five games since returning from injury. The Rams have yet to allow 17 points to a quarterback this season.

Trust: Todd Gurley (we’ve seen the ceiling and got to see the floor in a tough matchup last week), Alshon Jeffery (it’s not a great paper play, but Jeffery may be the wide receiver to own over the back half of the season)

Reasonable Return: Jay Cutler (he’s been steady and typically hasn’t been a matchup dependent quarterback for fantasy, for better or worse), Jeremy Langford (receiving ability should hold any inefficiency that may occur in the run game), Martellus Bennett (the targets remain here weekly and St. Louis has allowed strong weeks to the quality tight ends they’ve faced this season), Tavon Austin (his production is relatively unstable and has just two weeks above WR35, but has been a top-40 WR in five straight games)

Dallas vs. Tampa Bay

• Mike Evans has the most red zone targets (10) in the league without a touchdown.

• Jameis Winston hasn't thrown an interception on his past 121 pass attempts, the third longest active streak going.

• Tampa Bay averages 38.4 yards per drive over the past three weeks, the second highest mark in the league.

• Tampa Bay has allowed the opposing WR1 to score 15 or more points in six of eight games this season and 20 or more points four times.

• The Buccaneers have allowed 13 passing touchdowns inside the 10-yard line this season, most in the league.

• Darren McFadden leads the NFL in touches (85) and is 5th in overall running back scoring over the past three weeks.

• Over that span, only Devonta Freeman (62.7 per game) has played more snaps than McFadden (57.0).

Trust: Dez Bryant (the rust was knocked off with some splash plays last week and the matchup is as good as it gets), Doug Martin (left a lot of big plays on the field last week, but Tampa is actually favored here and the script should favor him bouncing back)

Bust: Mike Evans (the volume will be here to create a floor, but Dallas doesn’t allow boundary receivers to do heavy damage to them)

Reasonable Return: Darren McFadden (held a high floor last week in a tough matchup and the Bucs have allowed just one top-12 scorer since Week 1), Jameis Winston (has 15 or more points in four straight games), Charles Sims (has steadily held weekly flex value since Week 1), Matt Cassel (you likely aren’t getting this deep on the wire, but if you play 2QB leagues, I believe he’s a high end QB2 this week), Jason Witten (if you enjoy 6-11 points weekly, then you love Witten), Cole Beasley (regardless of chasing last week’s points, let’s not forget that he was useful down the stretch of last season and a healthy Bryant makes him more viable)

Detroit vs. Green Bay

• The Lions have scored on just 26.7 percent (24 of 90) of their drives this season, lowest rate in the league. That total is their lowest since 2009 when they scored on just 23.7 percent of their possessions.

• Golden Tate is the only receiver out of 28 with 60 or more targets on the season not to have at least 400 yards receiving for the season.

• Calvin Johnson's past six weekly finishes when facing Green Bay have been WR2, WR8, WR12, WR6, WR29 and WR10.

• Detroit's average scoring margin per play is -12 points, the most negative margin in the league.

• Opponents have scored on 48 percent (45 of 93) of their possessions against the Lions, highest in the league.

• Opposing quarterbacks have completed 71.1 percent of their passes against the Lions, the highest rate in the league.

• Every quarterback to face Detroit this season has at least 15 fantasy points and seven have scored 18 or more points.

• Davante Adams had 22.9 percent of the Green Bay targets last week, his highest total since Week 1.

Trust: Aaron Rodgers, Calvin Johnson, Randall Cobb (ready to take advantage of a soft second half schedule)

Bust: Eddie Lacy (we’re done here), Golden Tate, Detroit running game

Reasonable Return: All other Packer pass catchers (this is a week where Rodgers should comfortably shred), James Starks (he’s currently the best player in the backfield and the team total is strong), Matt Stafford (the implied team total and game script are a concern for a low floor but I believe Calvin does enough here to make him relevant), Theo Riddick (tune in late to collect the points), Eric Ebron (he's been a top-12 scorer in four of his five complete games and every decent tight end outside of Jimmy Graham has put up a solid line against Green Bay)

Miami vs. Philadelphia

• Since the Dolphins' Week 5 bye, Lamar Miller leads all running backs with at least 50 touches in points per touch (1.49 points).

• Miller is second overall in fantasy scoring for running backs over that span, but ranks 17th in overall in touches (71).

• Miller is the first Miami running back to rush for a touchdown in four straight games since Ronnie Brown in 2008.

• Miami has just three rushing attempts inside of the opponent’s 5-yard line, the fewest in the league.

• Ryan Tannehill has finished as the weekly QB18 or lower in six games, tied for the second most in the league.

• Jordan Matthews was targeted on a season high 36.4 percent of his routes last weekend after entering the game being targeted on 23.3 percent.

• After rushing for just 70.0 yards per game over their first four games, the Eagles have averaged 173.3 yards rushing per game over their past four games with at least 150 yards on the ground each week.

• DeMarco Murray's 56 receiving points rank as the 11th most at the position.

• Sam Bradford is 24th in first half passing yardage (821 yards) and 5th in second half yardage (1,236 yards).

Trust: DeMarco Murray (still handling the bulk of the work and Miami has been gashed steadily on the ground this season)

Bust: Rishard Matthews (Philadelphia has defended boundary receivers a lot better than last season), Ryan Tannehill (even in big yardage games, he’s been a low floor player this season)

Reasonable Return: Lamar Miller (has been steady since the coaching change, doing it in four different ways over the past month as a workhorse, a splash play option, touchdown dependent option and receiver out of the backfield those weeks), Jarvis Landry (seeing what Cole Beasley did in the interior passing game last week should have you excited, but Miami doesn’t have the outside presence to clear room like Dez Bryant did), Sam Bradford (the blueprint has been laid out for him, he needs to rushing game to aid his floor), Ryan Mathews (he’s been a top-24 scorer four of the past five games), Jordan Matthews (the yards and targets have been there weekly, but needs to find the end zone regularly to hit his ceiling)

New Orleans vs. Washington

• In their first game without Khiry Robinson, Mark Ingram played 69 snaps, C.J. Spiller just five.

• New Orleans has 17 rushing attempts inside of the opponent's 5-yard line, most in the league.

• Over the past five weeks, Brandin Cooks has 19 targets 15 yards or further downfield, third most in the league. Over the first four weeks, he had just nine (17th in the league).

• Drew Brees' three weekly finishes on the road this season have been QB13, QB16 and QB18.

• After allowing 29.5 yards per drive (11th) over the opening five weeks, Washington is allowing 42.0 yards per drive since (31st).

• After averaging 139.5 yards rushing per game over their first four games, Washington has rushed for 172 yards total over their past four games on 75 carries (2.2 YPC).

• In his return last week, DeSean Jackson played 85 percent of the snaps, behind Pierre Garcon (88 percent) and Jamison Crowder (95 percent).

• Pierre Garcon is tied with Jason Witten for the most games with at least five receptions for fewer than 80 receiving yards with six.

• Washington has just 19 pass plays of 20 or more yards, tied with Dallas for last in the league. The Saints defense has allowed 38 pass plays of 20 or more yards, the second most in the league.

• The average weekly finish for the quarterback facing the Saints this season is QB8.7, the highest average against any defense this season.

Trust: Mark Ingram (the Saints were due some passing touchdown regression, but Ingram not getting any of the 11 touchdowns they have over the past two weeks will correct itself as well), Jordan Reed

Bust: Ben Watson (Washington has allowed just one top-12 scoring tight end this season), Jamison Crowder (led the team in receiving even with the return of Jackson, but I believe we'll see the main pieces hit for Washington in this one)

Reasonable Return: Kirk Cousins (if you’re ever going to play him, this is the time), DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Drew Brees (the recent ceiling is lowered here on the road, but I still feel fine with the floor), Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead (Snead is becoming this year’s Brandon LaFell, you just put him in at your WR3 every week and take some of the up and down production because the weekly ceiling is there), Matt Jones (I don’t fully trust him, but there's undelying potential here as Vegas is implying this game is close and Jones had 73 percent of the team attempts last week and is the goal line option)

Minnesota vs. Oakland

• Adrian Peterson has 20 or more touches in seven consecutive games.

• The only quarterback that failed to produce a top-12 scoring week facing Oakland was Peyton Manning.

• Teddy Bridgewater's seven scoring weeks as QB17 or lower are the most in the league.

• Derek Carr has three or more touchdown passes in four games this season, tied with Tom Brady, Andy Dalton and Carson Palmer for the most in the league.

• Carr is the first Oakland quarterback to throw three or more touchdown passes in three straight games since Rich Gannon in 2001.

• Michael Crabtree has back to back 100-yard receiving yard games for the first time in his career and only Antonio Brown and Julio Jones have more points than Crabtree over the past three weeks.

• Last week was just the second time that both Crabtree and Amari Cooper both finished as top-24 receivers in the same week.

• The Vikings have allowed just five top-24 scoring receivers all season.

Trust: Stefon Diggs (bounce back from a stiff matchup into a soft one)

Bust: Latavius Murray (you aren’t sitting him, but expectations are low as Minnesota has been strict on the ground and Murray is coming off of a concussion), Amari Cooper (I only see one of the two Oakland receivers being relevant here and Cooper has drawn more defensive attention thus far)

Reasonable Return: Adrian Peterson (has actually been a floor player this season, but the volume and talent are still high), Teddy Bridgewater (if you can’t use him this week, you’re never using him), Derek Carr (as hot as they come, but Minnesota has yet to allow a top-10 passer), Michael Crabtree (feel as if he’s Carr’s favorite target despite Cooper’s strong rookie season)

Kansas City vs. Denver

• Peyton Manning led the NFL in red zone pass attempts per game at 6.8 in 2014. He currently is averaging just 3.8 per game in 2015.

• Demaryius Thomas has 100-yards receiving or a touchdown in seven consecutive games against the Chiefs.

• After doing it nine times in 2014, Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have both had top-24 scoring weeks in the same week just twice so far. One of those was in Week 2 against the Chiefs.

• Charcandrick West has had back to back games with 20 or more carries, something that Jamaal Charles has had (last time in 2013) once in his tenure under Andy Reid.

• Alex Smith's past three weekly finishes facing Denver have been QB18, QB19 and QB33 as he's thrown two touchdown passes total in those games.

• Travis Kelce has just 19 first half targets this season (77th) and 36 in the second half (T-19th).

• Jeremy Maclin was the WR55 (9.2 points) in Week 3 when these two teams last played. It was his lowest scoring week this season in which he played the entire game.

Trust: Demaryius Thomas

Bust: Alex Smith, Jeremy Maclin (despite what T.Y. Hilton did last week, I’m still making it a habit of playing for points against Denver’s secondary, even with Talib out), Ronnie Hillman/C.J. Anderson (the headache continues weekly just when we thought we might be getting a shred of clarity)

Reasonable Return: Charcandrick West (the way to hang with Denver is stay committed on ground and they’ve allowed a healthy amount of receptions if the script does gone off track), Emmanuel Sanders (this is a Demaryius week, but the Chiefs have been giving to entire receiving games), Travis Kelce (until he’s fully used as lead option, you’re left hoping for a ceiling game, rather than feeling like it’s a possibility), Peyton Manning (the yardage has been steady recently, but so have the mid-level fantasy points)

New England vs. New York (NFC)

• Tom Brady is the only quarterback with multiple touchdown passes in every game this season.

• The Giants are last in the league in sack rate at 2.4 percent.

• LeGarrette Blount has carried on 58.7 percent of his snaps the highest rates in the league.

• Brandon LaFell’s target share has gone from 14.8 percent, 18.4 percent to 23.1 percent last week.

• The Giants defense allows the most yards per drive at 37.3 yards, New England offense gains the most yards per drive at 39.1 yards.

• Through the first three quarters, opponents have scored a touchdown on just 15 percent (10 of 65) of their drives against New England, the 5th lowest in the league.

• New England has allowed just 47.0 yard rushing yards per game over the past three weeks, fewest in the league.

• The Patriots have only allowed four top-24 receivers this season and only one top-12 (Antonio Brown) scoring receiver.

• Shane Vereen leads the Giants in touchdowns inside of the 10-yard line with three.

Trust: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman

Bust: Odell Beckham (you aren’t going to sit him, but if there’s a player that New England is going to game plan to keep in check its Beckham)

Reasonable Return: LeGarrette Blount, Brandon LaFell, Danny Amendola (my initial assumption is he's the best bet to get some of loose targets created by the loss of Dion Lewis), Eli Manning (whenever I’m on him, he’s been awful and when off, he’s been stellar, but I only see a middling return on production this week), Shane Vereen (script and matchup should render this backfield useless outside of Vereen)

Arizona vs. Seattle

• Carson Palmer averages .629 passing points per attempt, highest in the league. His career average is .400 passing points per pass with a career high of .506 in 2005.

• Palmer has thrown a touchdown pass once every 13.0 pass attempts this season, best in the league.

• Palmer is the only quarterback besides Tom Brady to have scored 15 or more points in every game this season.

• Arizona has 12 passing touchdowns inside of the 10-yard line this season, tied for the most in the league. Seattle has allowed just two passing touchdowns inside of the 10, tied for the fewest in the league.

• Chris Johnson is the first Arizona running back to rush for 100 or more yards in four games in a season since Stump Mitchell in 1985.

• Larry Fitzgerald is tied with Julio Jones for the most top-24 scoring weeks at wide receiver with seven.

• Seattle has allowed just one top-24 scoring receiver (Randall Cobb) all season, the fewest in the league.

• Marshawn Lynch has just one game with 75 or more rushing yards and just twice has averaged 4.0 yards per carry in a game this season.

• Seattle has scored a touchdown on just 15.3 percent (13 of 85) of their drives, better than only San Francisco (12.2 percent).

Trust: Larry Fitzgerald (Richard Sherman has shadowed receivers more frequently this season, but Arizona has two good outside receivers to draw attention vertically. I’m assuming Seattle lives with some underneath damage here)

Bust: Marshawn Lynch (even as a home favorite, my expectations for Lynch are on volume RB2 levels right now with the way this offense has played), Russell Wilson (he’s finished above QB14 just once so far this season), Michael Floyd (this sets up to be either a game where Floyd is used a low volume decoy vertically or one where he’s the difference in the game, I’m leaning the former)

Reasonable Return: Carson Palmer (expectations are dampened a bit by this road matchup, but I still believe Palmer turns in a solid line), John Brown (is the type of receiver that recently has given the Seattle secondary a hard time), Jimmy Graham (Seattle has no matchup advantages with receivers and the run game has been inefficient, they have to involve Graham this week like they’ve done in two of the past three games), Chris Johnson (Jonathan Stewart and Darren McFadden have turned in solid grinding games, but the ceiling is low)

Houston vs. Cincinnati

• Tyler Eifert has nine red zone touchdowns on the season, which lead the league. Three tight ends tied for the league lead in red zone scores last with nine all season.

• Over their past four games, Marvin Jones has been a top-36 scoring receiver three times while A.J. Green just twice.

• Just 29.7 percent (27) of Giovani Bernard's rushing attempts have come in the first half this season.

• DeAndre Hopkins is the only receiver with double digit targets in every game this season.

• The Bengals has allowed only three top-24 wide receivers this season, but all three were receivers who had 24 percent or more of their team targets.

• Outside of his game against Carolina where he had 19 percent of the team targets, Hopkins has 24 percent of the team targets in every game.

• Houston has rushed for under 3.5 yards per carry as a team in six games this season, the most of any team in the league.

• Brian Hoyer has thrown multiple touchdowns in five straight games, the longest streak in Houston history.

• Hoyer has 17 or more points in five straight games, tied with Jay Cutler for the second longest current streak behind Tom Brady's eight games.

Trust: Andy Dalton (has only waivered once this season and Houston has been quarterback friendly), Tyler Eifert, Marvin Jones (all of the high scoring receivers against Houston have been secondary options and tight ends)

Bust: Jeremy Hill (the script should be in his corner, but it has been all season. If he doesn’t score, the floor is basement level), Nate Washington (if any receiver gets going here, I’m siding with Hopkins), texans running game (huge road dogs for an already pass heavy offense has me staying away from anyone here)

Reasonable Return: A.J. Green (his production has been volatile thus far, but this offense should cruise along in this one), Giovani Bernard (his Week 8 usage still lingers in the back of my mind, but so far that’s the only outlier in terms of how he was used and has been the better back all season), DeAndre Hopkins, Brian Hoyer (even if this gets ugly early, there’s points to be had late)

Context Key:

Trust = Set him in your lineups this week

Bust = Player to underperform season average

Reasonable Return = On par with seasonal average