Why UFC's dream fight remains in limbo
The biggest fight that can be made in mixed martial arts is, without question, Ronda Rousey against Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino.
That’s the case even if on Saturday in the main event of UFC 189, Conor McGregor routs Chad Mendes in their bout for the interim featherweight title to set up a champion vs. champion match with long-time divisional king Jose Aldo.
UFC president Dana White had been predicting a massive pay-per-view buy for Aldo-McGregor when the fight was scheduled to headline Saturday’s show at the MGM Grand before Aldo’s injury forced his withdrawal.
But a Rousey-Justino bout would dwarf that in fan interest and pay-per-view sales.
And yet, it may never happen.
On Thursday at the Cosmopolitan in Las Vegas, Justino destroyed an overmatched Faith Van Duin in just 45 seconds to retain the Invicta FC featherweight belt. That came on the heels of a Feb. 27 victory over Charmaine Tweet in 46 seconds.
The combined time of Justino’s title defenses is just 91 seconds.
That, of course, is a lifetime to Rousey, the UFC bantamweight champion who has dispatched superior opposition even more quickly. Rousey has beaten Sara McMann, Alexis Davis and Cat Zingano in a combined 96 seconds, with the wins over Davis lasting 16 seconds and Zingano 14 seconds.
Rousey is by far the better athlete and the more complete fighter, and in my opinion would add Justino to her list of victims if and when they ever met. Justino’s power is very real however, and a knockout punch is the fighting equivalent of the three-run homer in baseball.
It’s a great equalizer, and it creates the contrast in styles that makes the matchup so appealing.
It’s No. 1 vs. No. 2, grappling vs. striking, the establishment superstar defending her turf against the dangerous interloper.
The heat would be very real, the media attention intense and the fan interest over the top.
It’s a far better matchup than Rousey’s Aug. 1 date in Brazil in the main event of UFC 190 against Bethe Correia.
In just over two years in the UFC, Rousey has already wiped out 85 percent of her division, and the match with Correia doesn’t appear to be remotely competitive.
Correia is 3-0 in the UFC, but the combined record of her opponents is 1-6. The only win by a Correia opponent came when Jessamyn Duke, Rousey’s close friend and training partner, defeated Peggy Morgan at The Ultimate Fighter finale.
Correia did nothing other than come up with a clever gimmick to get the match. Rousey is an avowed pro wrestling fan who has dubbed her group – which includes herself, Marina Shafir, Shayna Baszler and Duke – “The Four Horsewomen.”
When Correia bested Duke at UFC 172 in Baltimore, she held up four fingers and then pulled one down, taking a jab at “The Four Horsewomen.” It was the same thing when she defeated Baszler.
That she defeated two of Rousey’s pals and angered the champion is pretty much the sole reason Correia got the fight.
Justino, though, is truly the only woman in the world who has a legitimate shot to defeat Rousey.
But she fights at 145 pounds, walks around between fights above 170 and has shown no ability whatsoever to come remotely close to making the bantamweight limit of 135 pounds.
There is a loud contingent that insists Rousey should agree to the fight at a catch weight to accommodate Justino. That, though, ignores a number of pertinent facts.
First and foremost is that Rousey is the champion and the vastly bigger star. There is no reason for her to leave her division. Stars dictate terms, and Rousey is the biggest star in the sport, male or female.
She’s so competitive, she probably would do that, however, if Justino didn’t have a positive steroid test in her past. But Rousey, who is as virulently against performance enhancing drugs as any athlete in the world, doesn’t want to accommodate a woman whom she believes is a cheater.
I had lunch with Justino not long ago and listened as she tearfully pleaded her case about her PED usage. I believed she was telling the truth when she said didn’t do it to build or add muscle, but rather to assist her in losing weight.
Still, it’s cheating. Cutting weight is one of the most difficult aspects of the business for fighters, and the vast majority do it without resorting to PEDs.
But Justino’s insistence brings up another point: If she needed the assistance of PEDs to help her make 145 pounds, how in the world can she ever make 135 safely without them?
Safety is the primary issue here. Justino is a big, heavily muscled woman. Have no doubt that she could make 135 pounds. That much is true. But whether she can make it safely, and be a semblance of herself, is another question entirely.
Let’s say she can make 135 safely without putting herself at any extra physical risk from a health standpoint, but needs to cut muscle to do so. That would significantly change her as an athlete.
Her game is based on power and brute force, and she’d have far less of it at 135 pounds than she does at 145.
Rousey is far quicker than Justino, but is also very powerful. She doesn’t have the washboard abdominals that Justino does, but anyone who has trained with Rousey, including many male UFC fighters, would tell you she’s amazingly strong.
So if we go into the fight assuming that Justino’s edge is going to be strength and power, but she gives it up by losing muscle to make weight, would the fight hold the same appeal?
If Justino proves she can make the weight, White and UFC CEO Lorenzo Fertitta would instantly sign her and put together a fight with Rousey.
They know how much interest there is in the bout and how much business it would do. It’s absurd to think they’d decline to make it out of some fear that Rousey might lose, or that they’re protecting Rousey. Rousey, if you hadn’t noticed, needs no one to protect her. Further, she might arm bar White himself if she felt he wasn’t doing his best to get the fight made.
It’s a dream fight, even though my personal opinion is that Rousey would win it far more handily than most believe.
If it can be made, it will be made.
It’s just no guarantee, though, and it has everything to do with Justino’s ability to get to 135.
If she can do it, the press tour for the Rousey-Justino fight is going to make the one for Aldo-McGregor look miniscule by comparison.
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