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Week 14 Fantasy Lames: TD drought on tap for Freeman in SoCal

Is another Freeman flop possible in the opening round of the fantasy playoffs? Most definitely. (Getty)
Is another Freeman flop possible in the opening round of the fantasy playoffs? Most definitely. (Getty)

Each week the Noise highlights 10 over-started names whom he believes are destined to implode leave egg on his face. To qualify, each player must be started in at least 50 percent of Yahoo leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here. If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 14 Lames in the comments section below.

SEE WEEK 14 FLAMES HERE

Ben Roethlisberger, Pit, QB (80 percent started, $34 in Yahoo DFS)
Matchup: at Buf
When playing away from the friendly confines of Heinz Field, the oversized ogre is a mystery wrapped in an enigma and swallowed whole by a conundrum. His home/away splits are practically science fiction they’re so bizarre. His disparities in completion percentage (Home: 70.4, Road: 60.1), passer rating (119.0, 81.9), yards per game (327.2, 233.0), yards per attempt (8.5, 6.5) and fantasy points per game (25.7, 14.5) sound alarms. Is it the unfamiliar surroundings? Hard hotel beds? Laxatives in the Gatorade? His relatively soft schedule in those tilts (Wash, Phi, Mia, Bal, Cle, Ind) only raise more questions. Frankly, there’s no smoking gun. It’s as though home is Coors Field; away, the Oakland Coliseum with 2002 Barry Zito on the mound. Having Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell and a rising Ladarius Green as targets is normally a formula for success. However, the numbers simply don’t lie. Complicating matters, the Bills sorely need a victory to keep their faint playoff hopes alive. Weather could also play a factor. Buffalo’s secondary shouldn’t be underestimated either. On the year, it’s allowed a mere 248.0 passing yards per game and five 20-plus point passers in 12 games. Corner Stephon Gilmore, in particular, has shined brightly this year giving up a 58.8 catch rate and 73.6 passer rating to his assignments. Review the evidence and the verdict is simple, Big Ben is bound to again be more road wimp than warrior. This week, Jameis Winston (vs. NO), Phillip Rivers (at Car) and Kirk Cousins (at Phi) are likely to outplay him.

Fearless Forecast: 238 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 2 turnovers, 15.5 fantasy points

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Devonta Freeman, Atl, RB (89 percent started, $27 in Yahoo DFS)
Matchup: at LA
Zigging while everyone else is zagging is a paramount tenement of the fantasy playoffs. Historically, owners, highly reliant on top-level talent, have experienced unexpected, untimely collapses. Last year, Jeremy Hill and Latavius Murray were those deficients. And so was Freeman. For most of 2015, the rusher electrified the fantasy football world. His quick cuts, useful hands and persistent touchdowns elevated him from waiver wire fodder to irreplaceable RB1. However, Freeman delivered least when supporters needed him most. On the road against Carolina Week 14, he tallied a sickening 62 yards without a touchdown, his third-worst performance of the season. With an opportunity to right last year’s wrong, the Falcon will again stumble. Yes, he’s crossed the chalk four times in his past two contests. And, yes, the Rams have surrendered the third-most fantasy points to the position over the past three weeks – 182.1 total yards and four rush/receiving scores to be exact. But much of that production came when LA was away from the Coliseum. In fact, RB1s have compiled a pedestrian 3.9 yards per carry, two touchdowns and 70.8 rush yards per game on the road against the Rams. Also impactful covering ground on short-field passes, Aaron Donald and Co. are a different beast when surrounded by friends. Mix in Tevin Coleman’s presence – when healthy he’s logged 40-45 percent of the opportunity share – and it could be deja vu for Freeman.

Fearless Forecast: 14 carries, 53 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 21 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 8.9 fantasy points

Jordan Howard, Chi, RB (88 percent started, $26 in Yahoo DFS)
Matchup: at Det
The rookie is Chuck Noland. You remember, the Tom Hanks character from ‘Castaway’ who crashes into the Pacific, improbably survives and washes ashore on an uninhabited island where he eventually lives off the land and befriends a volleyball. On a shipwrecked Chicago team, Howard is the only trustworthy option John Fox has. His bulky frame, toughness after contact (3.1 YAC No.2 among RBs), evasiveness (5.1 missed tackles per game) and marked versatility are features of a legitimate every-down threat. Once a bit player in this offense, he’s now the centerpiece, a rusher who ranks No. 10 in fantasy points per game since Week 2, ahead of such running luminaries as Mark Ingram, Jay Ajayi and Carlos Hyde. So, off a three-TD game and with four 100-plus total-yard efforts in his past five, he’s ventured into slam-dunk, must-start territory, right? Umm, not necessarily. Detroit shouldn’t be overlooked. Without much fanfare, the Lions defense has clamped down. Exhibiting a bend-don’t-break mentality, it’s yielded 4.3 yards per carry to RBs, but only three rushers have found the end zone on the ground against it, and one was Minnesota fullback Zach Line. Since Week 3, Josh Bynes and Friends have surrendered the eighth-fewest fantasy points to rushers. Unfavorable game flow is also a strong possibility. Chicago opened as a 9.5-point underdog. Howard is sure to tote another heavy workload, but only middling numbers are on the horizon.

Fearless Forecast: 17 carries, 74 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 13 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 10.2 fantasy points

[Week 14 rankings: Overall | FLEX | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | K]

Brandin Cooks, NO, WR (87 percent started, $27 in Yahoo DFS)
Matchup: at TB
For the Chef Boyardee of wide receivers, Hell’s Kitchen temporarily shut down last week. His complaints after an 0-fer Week 12 resonated with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. He was only inches shy of the end zone last week, but his nine targets for seven receptions and 73 yards against the Lions helped ease owner worries … At least, briefly. In total production terms, Cooks is again a luxury WR2. His 10.0 fantasy points per game in standard settings has outpaced perceived heartthrobs Michael Crabtree, Larry Fitzgerald and Doug Baldwin. But glancing at his game log and he’s terribly unpredictable. He’s topped 75 yards in a game only three times and has one touchdown to his name in his past five contests. Despite his erratic offerings, owners continue to employ his services without hesitation. With championship hopes on the line an objective perspective is needed. In his three previous encounters with Tampa, Cooks barely made a dent in the box score. In those battles he averaged 5.7 receptions and 49.0 receiving yards per game with zero touchdowns. Personnel has changed, but likely to see a ton of Brent Grimes (48.9 catch rate allowed), he’s undependable. Brees’ Mr. Hyde persona on the road and Tampa’s ascending defense only increase doubt. He’s sure to crank out a serviceable line for PPR purposes, but count on another mediocre yardage total.

Fearless Forecast: 6 receptions, 68 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 9.8 fantasy points

Emmanuel Sanders, Den, WR (65 percent started, $24 in Yahoo DFS)
Matchup: at Ten
It’s odd, in a battle in which the Broncos won convincingly one of the organization’s most outspoken mouthpieces refused to address the media postgame. That’s precisely what happened with Sanders last Sunday in Jacksonville. Visibly ticked on the sidelines and in the locker room, the wideout was mute for a calculated reason. His disgust with Gary Kubiak’s stripped-down playbook, an obvious attempt to make green QB Paxton Lynch feel comfortable, was understandable and justified. Denver, despite its playoff-worthy 8-4 record, is a team in disarray. The ground game, thanks to a severely incompetent offensive line, is broken. In turn, defenses are keying on the pass, whether Lynch or Trevor Siemian are at the controls. Sanders ranks No. 8 in total targets at his position, but, nearly identical to Allen Robinson, he’s mostly failed to cash in on those opportunities. Again, it’s not his fault – point fingers at John Elway – but even when accommodating matchups are on the docket, he isn’t a must play. This week is a textbook case. Tennessee, which cut Perrish Cox two weeks ago after he served up silver platters to his assignments Sunday after Sunday, is a unit with unmistakable flaws. On the year, 14 wideouts have tallied at least 10 fantasy points against it in standard leagues. Much of that, though, was due to Cox’s ineptitude. Jason McCourty, who Sanders will tango often with, has conceded a 69.2 passer rating and 54.0 catch percentage to the opposition. Unless Elway climbs down from his ivory tower and fires up the old Howitzer, Sanders is a WR3 at best, no matter who is slinging the rock.

Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 72 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 9.7 fantasy points

BONUS WEEK 14 LAMES

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#TEAMHUEVOS Picks of the Week
Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their “Lames” (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Tuesdays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?

Reader Record: 42-50

Noise Record: 70-58 (Week 13: 6-4; W: Allen Robinson, Martellus Bennett, Dak Prescott, Jay Ajayi, Devontae Booker, Kelvin Benjamin; L: Thomas Rawls, Jamison Crowder, KC D/ST, Jordy Nelson)

Follow Brad on Twitter (@YahooNoise) and check out his new TV show, ‘The Fantasy Football Hour,’ Wednesdays on Altitude TV (Channel 681 on DirecTV, 412 on DISH).