AccuScore: Euro 2012 quarterfinal projections

Entering the quarterfinals of the 2012 UEFA European Championship, the AccuScore computer calculates Germany as the most likely team to advance to the semifinals and is picking Joachim Löw’s squad to win Euro 2012. The most likely opponent for the Germans in the July 1 final is the defending champion, Spain.

The computer, however, gives Spain a higher chance of making the final than the Germans. Therefore, if the Germans meet Spain in the final, the current version of Germany is calculated to be a clear favorite over the current European and world champion, Spain.

Should both teams reach the July 2012 final, Germany would meet Spain for the third consecutive time in a knockout game late in a major tournament. Spain has won the last two times, and La Furia Roja have won the last two major tournaments. While Spain has been presenting itself as one of the all-time greatest teams to ever kick a football, it has repeatedly denied Germany the opportunity to make its own case for immortality.

In the last European Championship, Germany lost 1-0 to Spain in the final in Vienna, Austria. The ball was typically and methodically passed around before a decisive through-ball fell to Fernando Torres in the 33rd minute. Torres took a touch, went around defender Philipp Lahm, and stabbed home a slightly lofted effort over Jens Lehmann for the winner. Torres was duly named the man of the match for the 2008 final after completing the masterpiece.

In 2010, Spain met Germany in the semifinals of the World Cup in South Africa. Same as before, Spain beat Germany 1-0. This time, Carles Puyol outjumped teammate Gerard Pique to hit a thundering header and claim his only goal of the tournament. Now, the computer gives the Germany vs. Spain matchup a 29-percent chance of occurring again, far higher than any other two teams meeting in the final. This time, though, the computer is picking Germany to exact revenge and finally overcome its tormentor.

KEY QUARTERFINAL MATCHUPS AND PREDICTIONS

Thursday: Czech Republic vs. Portugal
Friday: Germany vs. Greece
Saturday: Spain vs. France
Sunday: England vs. Italy

For Portugal against Czech Republic, the computer favors the Iberians due to Cristiano Ronaldo’s ability to race past defenders and put shots on goal. Ronaldo is 59.8 percent to score against the Czech Republic with a 23-percent probability of scoring twice. Only Germany’s Mario Gomez has a higher likelihood of scoring than Ronaldo in the quarterfinals.

Gomez is 64 percent to score against Greece, and Germany is projected to win 3-1 against an injured Greece that is also missing its captain, Giorgos Karagounis, due to an unjustified suspension which should be reversed but, ultimately, will not be.

After France’s woeful display against Sweden, Spain is projected to win 2-1 over Les Bleus. France’s 2-0 loss to Sweden cost Laurent Blanc and company a chance to play Italy rather than Spain. With Philippe Mexes suspended, Arsenal’s Laurent Koscielny will need to step into the middle of the French defense against a Spanish side that makes a habit of laying the siege and exploiting a momentary lapse in defensive concentration and understanding.

England set up an attractive quarterfinal date with Italy. Despite winning Group D, England is a slight underdog against Italy due to Italy’s return to scoring form and England’s lack of attacking support out of the midfield. Ashley Young has not had a good tournament, and apart from Steven Gerrard’s service from set pieces, the English midfield has offered little going forward (the starters, anyway).

With Balotelli and Cassano both finding the target in their last outing for Italy, the sputtering Italian strike force seems to have hit its stride at the right time. Unfortunately, Giorgio Chiellini’s injury may ultimately be too damaging a detriment to Italy’s hopes of making a deep run in the 2012 European Championship. The prize for the winner of England and Italy is likely Germany in the semifinal.

Each team’s chances to advance to the semifinals and final and win Euro 2012: