Scouting Notebook: Le'Veon on legendary run
Le’Veon Bell has been a disappointment to his owners when it comes to converting yardage into touchdowns but all that changed at a perfect time for his owners, with three scores in Week 14.
So let’s start our Scouting Notebook with the player who is rapidly emerging as the consensus No. 1 running back (and thus, in the non-zeroRB world, the No. 1 overall pick) in 2015. Bell now has a remarkable 711 yards in his last three games. Only one player in league history has more (or has even ever broken 700) in a three game stretch — Walter Payton of the Chicago Bears in 1977. Bell's season total is up to 1,924 yards. He’ll have to play near his recent pace to break Chris Johnson’s 2009 record of 2,509 scrimmage yards. But just holding his full-season average, which seems a safe bet considering his recent surge, would get Bell to 2,368 scrimmage yards, the fourth most in league history (leapfrogging 1997 Barry Sanders).
Bell is the complete package, of course, except for home-run speed. But his slashing style, patience and vision coupled with his outstanding receiving ability reminds me of former Jet Freeman McNeil, as you can see for yourself.
I would not be in on Marquess Wilson sight unseen given that he's tied to Jay Cutler. Granted, it seems like a good matchup (vs. New Orleans in Week 15). But decent target volume seems unlikely as the fourth option in the offense. And so does target efficiency with Cutler (the poor man’s Jeff George) looking mediocre at best.
I can’t put “rock solid” and “Jonathan Stewart” in the same sentence. But he's a zeroRB guy right now for sure if you’re playing that way. He should be viewed as gravy though. The Panthers offense defies projection and Stewart has put up consecutive games with 20-plus carries one time in his career — December 20th and 27th of 2009. And don’t talk to me about DeAngelo Williams ruining it because Stewart has never been able to stay healthy. He may not even make it through practice this week.
The Rams defense is winning people fantasy playoff games. This bothers me. But they’ve been bettable, for sure. This week, they face the Cardinals on a short week and Arizona’s Drew Stanton entered Week 14 with the highest percentage of passes that get defensed (hit the hands of a defender) in the NFL. Obviously, this is the best interception predictor. I hate D/ST scoring. My home league has coach scoring where you get a win bonus plus the team’s score divided by half as much with a win as with a loss. A win basically amounts to 10-15% of an average point total. A loss is, rightfully, a nothing burger.
Yep, play Joique Bell. Why would you worry about Reggie Bush? Plus the Lions are a low-scoring, defensive team now and that plays right into Bell getting a bunch of carries. Sorry if you bet on Matthew Stafford volume, but this was always the risk. It’s not like the Lions defense being good was impossible to project.
On Twitter (@michaelsalfino) I took the bait on Josh Gordon getting limited snaps. But it turns out his rate was actually the highest it’s been, at nearly 80%. I want to put the Browns into a sack and close it and then beat that sack with a big stick, paraphrasing the great Deacon Jones. So I’m not inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt. The real problem in Cleveland is playing Brian Hoyer instead of this guy whose lips we want to read.
How does Martavis Bryant slip until the fourth round? He’s that tall AND that fast? The Jets took a 5-foot-7 receiver over Bryant in the same round. Please excuse me while I break things. I was talking to Gil Brandt today about Bryant and he says this was largely a case of the coaching staff not deploying him enough. This calls the data on market share in college (percentage of team catches and touchdowns) into some question because what if the coaches are just being dumb about not using a guy? Not that throwing mostly to DeAndre Hopkins and Sammy Waitkins is stupid.
Speaking of stupid, the Browns let Charles Johnson just walk away. The Packers did, too. But the Packers have a guy you never even heard of yet, Jeff Janis, who will soon be fantasy gold, and one of the deepest groups in the league. The Browns have just Gordon, who could get suspended again for one year in a puff of smoke at any moment.
The Colts zero running game is getting Donte Moncrief (I always want to type “Sidney”) way more snaps, but unfortunately not that many targets. I still think the ETA for him is 2015 as a high-value asset in our fake game.
No one liked Demaryius Thomas more than me but it seems now that Peyton Manning is on a strict pitch count, as ridiculous as that sounds. More alarmingly, he’s not throwing the ball very well at all. He’s old and should be fading. One note that I forwarded this week on Twitter was Manning’s rate of passes defensed being worse than the league average. Good quarterbacks are generally not below average at avoiding defenders’ hands on passes. I was lucky enough to have byes in two of the three leagues where I own Thomas but I’m very concerned about Thomas’ Week 15 prospects. Of course you play him, but I will not be shocked by a dud day.
Finally, what do we make of Kerwynn Williams, who is on his third team already. He’s short but not small. Brandt mentioned to me the importance of speed and explosion in assessing running backs and Williams was best in class in the 40 (4.48) and 20-yard shuttle (4.15). So I’d get him even though the Cardinals have terrible matchups (Rams, Seahawks) the next two weeks. He’ll get volume and he can break one. Plus the Rams, at least, haven’t been great against the run most of the year (yards per carry allowed).
More fantasy advice from Yahoo Sports
