Playing Time Risers
One of the easier ways to prepare for your fantasy draft is to browse the leaderboards for the past season, then make your own calls as to whether or not the results are repeatable. Some players, as a result of making their debuts mid-season, suffering injuries, or being shuttled back and forth from the minors, may not rack up enough plate appearances or innings to show up on those leaderboards. For your convenience, I’ve identified a few such players who might be worth keeping an eye on as you prepare for your draft.
o SP Jesse Hahn, Oakland Athletics
The Athletics acquired Hahn from the Padres in the Derek Norris trade. The right-hander will slot into the back of the Athletics’ rotation. He had Tommy John surgery back in 2010 and hasn’t had the cleanest bill of health in the time since. However, he posted a 3.07 ERA with a 70/32 K/BB ratio in 73 1/3 innings across 12 starts and two relief appearances in the majors last year. Hahn relies mostly on a fastball that sits in the low 90’s and a curve in the mid-70’s, as both accounted for over 90 percent of his pitches for the Padres.
Hahn is moving from one pitcher-friendly park in San Diego to another in Oakland. As a result, we should expect his ERA to be a bit lower than normal, all else being equal. Thanks to a 51 percent ground ball rate, a 23 percent strikeout rate and a 10.5 percent walk rate, Hahn graded out with a 3.59 xFIP, per FanGraphs, which was about a half-run per nine innings more than his ERA.
o OF Michael Saunders, Toronto Blue Jays
The Mariners moved on from former top prospect Saunders, trading him to the Blue Jays in December. As they say, one man’s trash may be another man’s treasure, and that could be the case for Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos. Though Saunders battled two serious injuries last season – shoulder inflammation and a strained oblique – he was productive, posting a .273/.341/.450 line in 263 plate appearances.
With a full, healthy season, Saunders could reach the potential the Mariners dreamed of as he rose up the ranks many years ago. He has a good idea of the strike zone, drawing walks in 10 percent of plate appearances last season. He has speed, stealing 34 bases in 2012 and ’13 combined. He has power, finishing with an isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) between .160 and .185 over the last three seasons, which compares well to last season’s .137 American League average. Furthermore, the Blue Jays will have quite a few players with above average on-base percentages ahead of Saunders lower in the lineup, making it quite likely Saunders beats his current career high of 57 RBI.
o 2B Rickie Weeks, free agent
Weeks had a productive 2014 season in limited playing time for the Brewers, losing playing time to Scooter Gennett. The 32-year-old veteran compiled an .809 OPS with eight home runs and 29 RBI in 286 plate appearances. Given his age, he no longer has the elite set of wheels that made him such an attractive fantasy option four to six years ago – he has stolen only 10 bases total since the start of the 2010 season.
Nevertheless, second base is not a position with a surfeit of elite talent. Depending on where he signs and if he’s afforded an opportunity to contribute, Weeks could be a cheap way to address your positional needs. Unless he’s guaranteed playing time at some point in spring training, he’s worth skipping over in drafts but still someone you should keep close tabs on early in the season.
o SP Mike Fiers, Milwaukee Brewers
Fiers was dominant all year long with Triple-A Nashville. Though he earned a brief promotion to the majors in June, he was used as a reliever and didn’t actually join the Brewers’ rotation until August. He put himself on the map in his second start, on August 14 against the Cubs, when he struck out 14 batters in six innings. He finished with a 2.09 ERA and a 71/14 K/BB ratio in 64 2/3 innings for the Brewers.
Fiers doesn’t have an overpowering fastball as his strikeout rate might lead one to think; he sits at a meager 89-90 MPH. If he’s not throwing a fastball, he’s throwing a cutter in the mid-80’s, and the two pitches together account for three out of every four pitches he throws.
Despite the great strikeout and walk rates, there are a couple of warning signs with Fiers: he benefited from a very low .224 BABIP, and he is an extreme fly ball pitcher as his 47 percent fly ball rate was the 10th-highest among pitchers who racked up at least 70 innings last season. He was undoubtedly on the good end of the luck spectrum in a small sample of major league playing time in 2014; teetering on the other end of that spectrum is a risk for any potential fantasy owner. However, the upside is that he may once again post ludicrously good K and BB numbers which would lend themselves to a low ERA.
o SP Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians
It was Carrasco, not Fiers, who had the most dominant second half among pitchers. The Indians’ right-hander rejoined the rotation on August 10 and proceeded to compile a 1.30 ERA with a 78/11 K/BB ratio in 69 innings over 10 starts.
Carrasco, a former top prospect for the Phillies, revamped his repertoire, more than doubling his use of his slider from 10 percent in 2013 to over 21 percent last season. He reduced his fastball use a bit and notably cut his change-up use by five percent. Those in the Indians organization also believe a change in mentality lent itself to Carrasco’s surge, described as “aggressive” in a January column from MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian.
ERA retrodictors – ERA estimators that focus on a pitcher’s strikeout and walk rates, as well as his batted ball or home run rates -- were all on board with Carrasco in 2014. His 2.44 FIP fell below his 2.55 ERA, while his 2.66 xFIP was only slightly above, and his 2.58 SIERA was in the neighborhood as well – all elite numbers in a small sample. It’s certainly not unreasonable to think Carrasco has turned the corner and evolved into an above-average fantasy contributor.
o SP Vance Worley, Pittsburgh Pirates
Worley had a terrible 2013 with the Twins after undergoing off-season elbow surgery. He made only 10 starts and posted a 7.21 ERA before being demoted to Triple-A, and then landing on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation in July.
His 2014 with the Pirates began in May, making seven solid starts for Triple-A Indianapolis – displaying pristine control -- before replacing Francisco Liriano in the major league rotation. The success continued in the bigs, as Worley finished the season with a 2.85 ERA and a 79/22 K/BB ratio over 110 2/3 innings. His strikeout rate was a bit lower than it had been when he enjoyed success with the Phillies, but his control was significantly better.
Unlike a pitcher like Fiers, there aren’t many red flags around Worley’s success in 2014: he didn’t benefit from an abnormally low BABIP or home run rate, and his strand rate was right around his career average. Still, his ERA was a bit over a half-run per nine innings more than the ERA retrodictors indicated, but a 3.54 xFIP is still quite good. I like to gamble with pitchers near the end of my drafts and Worley is one I’ll be keeping tabs on.
o OF Justin Ruggiano, Seattle Mariners
Ruggiano will serve as the right-handed half of a right-field platoon for the Mariners along with lefty Seth Smith. He’s coming off of a season in which he hit .281/.337/.429 in 250 plate appearances, a bit under his usual amount of playing time.
Due to a hamstring injury suffered towards the end of April, Ruggiano didn’t run nearly as much as in previous seasons, attempting only six stolen bases. In the previous two seasons with the Marlins, he stole a total of 29 bases.
The 32-year-old has been a bit of a lefty-killer over his career, owning an .836 OPS against southpaws. In nearly half the plate appearances, Ruggiano has hit nearly as many home runs against them (20) as against right-handers (23). In deeper leagues in which you can set your lineups daily, he’s a solid match-up play.
