NFL Preview 2016: Best-case, worst-case scenarios for all NFC teams
Every team enters the NFL season with outsize expectations, whether it’s a Super Bowl championship or a single-digit total of player arrests. We want to feed those expectations, yes, but we also want to temper them with searing cold truth. Only one team will win the Super Bowl, and chances are it won’t be yours. So let’s take a run through the Best-Case and Worst-Case scenarios for every team in the NFL, starting with the AFC.
If good tidings come your way, you’ll have been celebrating for months. And if your dome collapses around you, well, you can’t say you weren’t warned.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
2015: 4-12, Fourth Place, NFC East
Best Case: Tony Romo solidifies his place as one of history’s finest quarterbacks and leads the Cowboys through a stirring regular season and triumphant postsea- oh, wait. Never mind. Romo’s graham-cracker back cracked earlier than expected this year, which means best-case scenario is that Dak Prescott manages not to explode in the pocket. Ezekiel Elliott has the inside track on Offensive Rookie of the Year, but let’s keep our expectations tempered for the first Cowboys team since 1969 to start a rookie QB and rookie RB in the very first game. 8-8, Third Place, NFC East.
Worst Case: Turn away now, Cowboys fans. Seriously. Last warning. OK … this could be a terrible year. Truly, truly terrible. If Prescott and Elliott get figured out and overmatched, if Dez Bryant decides that he doesn’t like where this train is heading, if Jason Garrett continues to stare blankly at his clipboard as the JerryDome burns around him … this is going to be a long, painful season. Good times are ahead for Dallas, but they might be a few years off. 3-13, Fourth Place, NFC East.
New York Giants
2015: 6-10, Third Place, NFC East
Best Case: The Giants went all-in on defense during the offseason, and in a jittery division like this one, a shutdown defense can make the difference. The Cowboys and Eagles are still trying to figure out exactly who the hell they are, and a competent defense could end their divisional hopes before they begin. Plus, Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. are one of the league’s most potentially potent duos. This is a team that could win the division going away … or not. 11-5, NFC East champions
Worst Case: There’s a reason the Giants fired Tom Coughlin, and Coughlin acolyte Ben McAdoo could just mean more of the same. Manning (we can call him that now, there’s no other one around) is on the backslope of his career—stunning, but true—and if he falters, he’ll take the Giants’ chances with him. New York still has enough innate talent and defensive acumen to hold off at least one of its division rivals. (‘Sup, Philly.) 7-9, Third Place, NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles
2015: 7-9, Second Place, NFC East
Best Case: The Eagles are a case study in how the company you keep defines your perception. You think the Eagles are a pretty decent organization, right? That’s because they’re one of the NFL’s historic clubs, with a legacy of fairly decent play. But your Philadelphia Eagles right now are an utter mess, a dysfunctional crew that’s on its third coaching regime since 2012. Best-case scenario is that the team plays decently enough to get a couple fan-pleasing division wins as Carson Wentz grows into himself. The ceiling for this team is too low for anyone to stand up. 8-8, Third Place, NFC East
Worst Case: What happens when you crash a train into a dumpster fire as a meteor is about to hit? Pretty much what could happen in Philly this season. You know Fletcher Cox is going to anchor the D-Line. Beyond that, you know nothing. The Eagles are relying on a rookie QB, a new coach, an injury-prone running back, a brand-new defensive scheme, and a whole lotta prayer. This won’t be pretty, Philly fans. 2-14, Fourth Place, NFC East
[ Play Yahoo Fantasy Football for free | Mock Draft now | Rankings | Draft Kit ]
Washington Redskins
2015: 9-7, NFC East champions
Best Case: The best case for the Redskins is exactly what happened last year—being the one-eyed man in the division of the blind. Kirk Cousins is shacking up for a one-year hitch while everybody decides if they want to make a long-term commitment. Newcomer Josh Norman will open up against Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, and his old nemesis Odell Beckham Jr., and if he’s able to shut down the chief weapons of those three teams, the Redskins are going to be in fine shape. They won’t be an exceptional team, but in this division, they don’t need to be. 10-6, NFC East champions.
Worst Case: This is still Washington we’re talking about, a team whose owner has zero patience for incompetence. (No need to point out the irony.) If the team looks weak, or worse, looks ugly in the first month of the season, expect changes to come, for good or (more likely) ill, in a hurry toward the season’s midpoint. And there’s every chance that this team could collapse and bottom out in the NFL’s most fluid division. You won’t like that. 5-11, Fourth Place, NFC East.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons
2015: 8-8, Second Place, NFC South
Best Case: Matt Ryan has always walked in that shadow space between Great and Garbage, a.k.a. The Flacco Zone—too good to cut, not good enough to take you the distance. But Ryan is now throwing to Julio Jones and Mohammed Sanu, he’s got a decent complementary run game with Devonta Freeman and he has an upgraded O-line anchored by new center Alex Mack. If Ryan finds 16 games’ worth of the touch he had in 2012, when Atlanta came within five yards of a Super Bowl, the Falcons could push their final meeting with the Panthers into January, rather than December. 11-5, NFC Wild Card.
Worst Case: If Ryan, who had several years of the greatest tight end in NFL history in Tony Gonzalez, squanders the career of one of the greatest receivers in the game today in Julio Jones, even the normally docile Atlanta fans are going to throw him and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan onto a slow raft on the Chattahoochee River. The Falcons always have a tenuous hold on the hearts of Atlanta fans, and with a new stadium less than a year from opening, a crappy season could sour potential ticket-holders on the team right when Atlanta needs them most. 6-10, Fourth Place, NFC South.
Carolina Panthers
2015: 15-1, NFC Champions
Best Case: After a 15-1 regular season and a spectacular playoff run that ended about 60 minutes before it should have, the Panthers start 2016 as primed as any team in league history to repeat a Super Bowl run. Cam Newton is the most potent weapon in the game right now, Kelvin Benjamin is a 6’5” receiving threat the Panthers didn’t have last year, and with the exception of the weakened secondary, every other element of the Carolina game is as strong as it was last year. This is as legit a Super Bowl contender as it gets. 14-2, Super Bowl champions.
Worst Case: There’s a reason nobody has lost the Super Bowl and returned to win it since 1972: it’s damn hard to keep up the motivation, the edge, the drive, the will over 25 weeks. The Panthers’ toughest opponent in 2016 will be inside their own skulls: a slow start, a realization that things aren’t coming as easily as last year, and it’ll be tough to maintain that lead on the Packers, Cardinals and the rest of the NFC. Carolina could probably skip five games and still win the NFC South, but a playoff run could be a quick one if this team doesn’t hang together. 10-6, NFC South champions.
New Orleans Saints
2015: 7-9, Third Place, NFC South
Best Case: Saints fans bask in the delight of seeing one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history still at the far edge of his peak. Outside of that … well, Saints fans who live in New Orleans have plenty of options for blurring the sharp edges of their vision. Plus, there’s always the chance that the Falcons and/or Buccaneers will suffer their inevitable every-other-year collapse. The Saints could move forward simply by standing still. 8-8, Second Place, NFC South.
Worst Case: Joe Montana, John Elway, Steve Young and Fran Tarkenton all retired at age 38. Drew Brees turns 38 in January. And while the 38 of 2016 is very different from the 38 of 1996, there’s still mileage … and the fact that Brees alone takes $30 million of the Saints’ $155 million cap. Plus, the Saints defense is uglier than a Bourbon Street gutter on Sunday morning. This is a team that needs to be scoured to the bone before it gets better, and that’s not going to happen with Brees still in the lineup. 4-12, Fourth Place, NFC South.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2015: 6-10, Fourth Place, NFC South
Best Case: Absent a totally off-the-wall eventuality like the Panthers’ plane vanishing into the Upside Down, there’s a hard teal-and-black ceiling on the NFC South; a team made up of the best of the Saints, Falcons and Bucs would have a hard time knocking off the Panthers. That said, there is room for Tampa Bay to make a run at the sixth NFC playoff spot. Jameis Winston is a special talent—yeah yeah crab legs etc., we’re talking on-field now—and showed enough promise last year to give hope that he’ll be one of the NFL’s next premier QBs. 10-6, NFC Wild Card.
Worst Case: The Bucs’ chances all revolve around Winston. He’s an otherworldly talent, but if he’s not able to translate his particular blend of spiraling backfield chaos into forward progress, Tampa Bay won’t be able to make much headway in the division, much less the conference. 4-11, Fourth Place, NFC West.
The Grandstanding podcast previews Week 1
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears
2015: 6-10, Fourth Place, NFC North
Best Case: You kind of know what you’re getting with Chicago at this point, don’t you? This seems like one of those teams in need of a ground-up shakeup, but that comes with great risk … you could go from winning seven games to winning three in a hurry. But the Bears are yoked to Jay Cutler, they’re running a well-worn John Fox game plan, and so their ceiling is probably nine wins. That’s good enough to knock off a few division opponents, but not enough to get into the postseason. 9-7, Second Place, NFC North.
Worst Case: The Bears’ defense has been horrendous, and if newcomers like Danny Trevathan don’t turn that around, it won’t matter if Cutler is able to keep his crankiness and interceptions under control until Week 17, the Bears aren’t going anywhere. Plus, while Cutler was sneaky good last season, the departure of Adam Gase could be cause for a regression. The Bears don’t have much margin for error, and this season could turn ugly in a hurry. 5-11, Fourth Place, NFC North.
Detroit Lions
2015: 7-9, Third Place, NFC North
Best Case: It’s hard to envision any kind of “best case” scenario when the greatest receiver in team history has walked away suddenly, but maybe Calvin Johnson’s departure spurs the Lions on to greater heights? Don’t laugh! Maybe they have to spread the ball around more, and Matthew Stafford can have a more sophisticated game plan than “go long, I’ll hit ya”? Maybe? It could happen. You never know. 10-6, Second Place, NFC North.
Worst Case: The Lions don’t have a whole lot of reasons to feel good, but strangely, they don’t have a whole lot of reasons to feel bad, either. This is yet another one of the NFL’s plod-along teams, good enough to win a handful of games they should and one or two they shouldn’t, but not good enough to scare anyone or reach the postseason. Worst case for Detroit is already here: this is a franchise that squandered the careers of possibly the greatest running back and the greatest receiver in NFL history. Anything else is just perpetuating the sameness. 6-10, Fourth Place, NFC North.
Green Bay Packers
2015: 10-6, NFC Wild Card
Best Case: There are about half a dozen teams in the NFL who can realistically win a Super Bowl playing their own game and not rely on any breaks/injuries/goofy bounces to take out any other teams. The Packers are one of those teams. As long as Aaron Rodgers lines up in yellow and green, Green Bay is a playoff team. Add in a motivated Eddie Lacy and a healthy Jordy Nelson, and you’ve got a team that could run the table. Best Case is the very best case. 13-3, Super Bowl champions.
Worst Case: Green Bay has so much talent in so many areas that the only way they lose is if that talent isn’t on the field because of injury, or isn’t properly deployed by the coaches. Both of those are all too possible with Green Bay, as Packers fans well know. The Packers are notoriously free agent-shy, and this is where that could bite them: if the team’s depth becomes a problem, the Packers haven’t prepared adequately. Even so, this team would have to lose more than one of its big-name players to spiral out of sight of the playoffs. 7-9, Third Place, NFC North.
Minnesota Vikings
2015: 11-5, NFC North champions
Best Case: This is survival mode now. Teddy Bridgewater’s season-ending injury completely changed the complexion of this team, and that’s a shame, because we were looking forward to seeing how Bridgewater, Adrian Peterson, LaQuon Treadwell, and all the other Vikings parts both new and old were going to meld together. Now? With Stopgap Solution Sam Bradford (true story: that’s his full legal name) under center, the Vikings might not be an embarrassment … but probably won’t do anything spectacular, either. 9-7, Second Place, NFC North.
Worst Case: Come on. The Vikings’ worst-case scenario is already a reality, with Bridgewater’s knee now turned to jelly. How much worse can you get than that? (Don’t answer that.) The Vikings are in a world of hurt, and Bradford ain’t gonna turn that around. And if he goes way south—and, of course, there’s nowhere to go from Minnesota BUT south—this could be a season where everyone visits the brand-new stadium despite the horrid team inside, not because of it. 4-12, Fourth Place, NFC North.
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals
2015: 13-3, NFC West Champions
Best Case: Lombardi. The Cardinals are set up to win it all from every angle: through the air, from the ground, on the sideline. Yes, Carson Palmer was a MVP candidate last year before his injury, and yes, he’ll be helming an offense that’s every bit as lethal this year. David Johnson is a sudden star on the ground, and Bruce Arians’ game plans are the kind of joyous multi-pronged attack you’d usually see in a Turkey Bowl. This team is one of the preseason favorites to win it all, and deservedly so. 14-2, Super Bowl Champions.
Worst Case: As the Cardinals have demonstrated, they’ll only go as far as Palmer can take them; if he’s ineffective or worse, this team will spin its wheels. The receiving corps led by Larry Fitzgerald isn’t getting any younger (but then again, is anyone?), and a failure there will snowball. 9-7, Second Place, NFC West.
Los Angeles Rams
2015: 7-9, Third Place, NFC West
Best Case: The Rams have already sold out of season tickets, as you’d expect for a brand-new(ish) team in a new(ish) market. (Good luck getting out of that season ticket contract, Rams fans.) That’s good news. The Rams also have the league’s greatest running back—that didn’t take long—in Todd Gurley. Alas, the Rams still have Jeff Fisher, which means their best-case scenario still looks exactly like their worst-case: 8-8, again and again, forever and ever, amen. 8-8, Third Place, NFC West.
Worst Case: You know what could go wrong: Jared Goff is a rookie quarterback. Tavon Austin and Kenny Britt are about as reliable as receivers as an overloaded plastic grocery bag. Maybe it’ll go the distance … and maybe not. And Fisher, who has been coaching for 20 seasons, has posted a winning mark in exactly six of them. Worst-case scenario? He gets to serve Rams fans his utterly non-unique blend of cheese pizza football for another decade. 8-8, Third Place, NFC West.
San Francisco 49ers
2015: 5-11, Fourth Place, NFC West.
Best Case: Chip Kelly rallies the faithful both on the field and in the stands, bringing a renewed sense of optimism and swagger to Levi’s Stadium. Blaine Gabbert sheds his inherent Blaine Gabbertness and becomes a functional NFL quarterback. Colin Kaepernick brings about peace, harmony and understanding. Carlos Hyde rushes enough to justify picking him as your RB1 in fantasy. The 49ers pull off a surprising win—over Seattle or Arizona, say—and the fans start to believe that good times are here again. And then the 49ers finish 6-10, but whatever. 6-10, Third Place, NFC West.
Worst Case: Kelly exhibits the same degree of personnel management and workplace congeniality that got him bounced from Philly. Blaine Gabbert gabberts up his chance at the starting QB job, and Colin Kaepernick comes in and, amid boos, slings a wayward football through the chest of the guy holding the first-down marker. The 49ers try to stoke a rivalry with their new Cali neighbors in Los Angeles, and the Rams just laugh at ‘em. Laugh! When a Jeff Fisher team is laughing at you, it’s time to take a sabbatical for a year and come back fresh. 2-14, Fourth Place, NFC West.
Seattle Seahawks
2015: 10-6, NFC Wild Card
Best Case: Forgot about the Seahawks, didn’t you? Everybody’s so thrilled talking about the Panthers or the Cardinals or the Packers that they forgot about the team that’s been the class of the NFC for the last few years. We won’t mention A Certain Ill-Advised Super Bowl Pass, but we will say that the best-case scenario involves a different outcome to that play. Russell Wilson is still one of the league’s aces, the Legion of Boom still has some pop, and the Seahawks are still a lot more dangerous than you think. 12-4, Super Bowl champions.
Worst Case: The level of talent in Seattle seems to all but guarantee the Seahawks a path into the playoffs, albeit as a wild card; there’s no division in football with a 1-2 punch like the NFC West. Absent injury, the Seahawks’ floor is a dogfight for a playoff spot, and there aren’t two non-division winners better than Seattle in the NFC right now. 10-6, NFC Wild Card.
Related NFL coverage on Yahoo Sports:
________
Jay Busbee is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Email him your own best-case, worst-case thoughts for your favorite team, and find him on Twitter (@jaybusbee) and Facebook.
