NFL against the spread picks: A strange wild-card weekend to kick things off
The combined point spreads of the four wild-card weekend games is 26, according to Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em’s final lines. That’s the highest that number has been since at least 2007, and most seasons it doesn’t approach 20 (h/t to FootballLocks.com).
And the game with the lowest spread this weekend is the Oakland Raiders-Houston Texans game that is one of the strangest playoff matchups in NFL history.
That doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll get four bad games. And football fans will dutifully watch, because you only get 11 playoff games every season. But has there ever been less excitement heading into wild-card weekend?
Again, maybe we end up with four great games and some all-time stories like Connor Cook winning his first career start in a playoff game. There’s definitely some intrigue, especially when you attach a point spread to the games. So here are the against-the-spread picks for the wild-card games:
Texans (-3.5) over Raiders: I know all the Texans’ problems. I know they were not a good football team this season. And I’m as surprised as anyone to be picking Brock Osweiler as a favorite in a playoff game. But I can’t pick a quarterback making his first career start in a road playoff game.
If Cook has a big game against a Texans pass defense that was pretty good all season, good for him. But I’ll go with history. Some numbers from OddsShark: Rookie quarterbacks are 8-14 straight up in the playoffs since the 1970 merger, and two of those wins were against other rookie quarterbacks. Dating back to Ben Roethlisberger at the end of the 2004 season, rookie quarterbacks are 6-10 against the spread. The five most recent rookie quarterbacks are 2-5 straight up and against the spread, and both wins came against other rookie quarterbacks.
And obviously none of those quarterbacks were making their first career start, as Cook is.
The Texans might not be good, but I can’t pick the Raiders and Cook in this spot.
Lions (+8) over Seahawks: An amazing stat that my colleague Kevin Kaduk dropped on me on our “Grandstanding” podcast (which you can find below): The Lions trailed in the fourth quarter in 15 of their 16 games. Wow. Detroit is not a strong playoff team, to say the least.
Yet, they match up OK against the Seahawks. Seattle’s defense hasn’t been the same since Earl Thomas’ injury, and we know Stafford can throw it deep (Greg Cosell’s piece earlier this week examined Stafford, and Cosell doesn’t think anything is wrong with Stafford’s much talked-about middle finger injury). The Seahawks also are wildly inconsistent on offense, with no running game and the passing game seemingly just waiting for Russell Wilson to go off script and make a play (Cosell also broke down the Seahawks’ offense in depth this week).
Do I feel great picking a shaky Lions team at Seattle? Not really. But I’ll figure even if they don’t come close to a win, a late backdoor cover could be available.
Dolphins (+10) over Steelers: This was the one line of wild-card weekend that surprised me. Yes, I know the Steelers were favored by 7.5 points in the first meeting and when you flip home-field advantage then you see it has been adjusted for the Dolphins. But the Dolphins were 1-4 then and looking like the worst team in football. A lot has changed. And they did cover that Week 6 spread by 22.5 points.
I don’t think Matt Moore is a huge drop from Ryan Tannehill. He’s competent, has a good running game with Jay Ajayi and three playmaking receivers. That cornerback Byron Maxwell is doubtful scares me a bit, but I still think this one will be close.
Packers (-4.5) over Giants: I settled on the Packers early in the week, and I’ll stick with it even though I’m having some doubts.
The Packers are playing really well, but the Giants have the cornerbacks to match up with them. Eli Manning has not been very good this season, but the Packers secondary is beat up. It’s easy to see Odell Beckham making one big play and the defense bringing it home in a cold and miserable low-scoring game – basically the formula from their win over the Cowboys on “Sunday Night Football” late in the season.
Still, it’s Aaron Rodgers. And I don’t really care what Manning did in the playoffs in 2008 and 2012; that has almost no bearing on what happens Sunday. It’s hard to pick against Rodgers the way he’s playing, especially at Lambeau. Green Bay it is.
Last week: 9-7
Season to date: 130-118-8
SuperContest (final): 3-2 last week, 44-37-4 season
Subscribe to Grandstanding • iTunes • Stitcher • Soundcloud
– – – – – – –
Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
Follow @YahooSchwab
