Next Year's Starters
When trying to project box-score production, playing time is the chief component.
So as we begin to look toward 2015, the first step involves thinking about who will be on the field. That’s more complicated than it sounds as we still have free agency, the draft and more coaching changes to go. But for now, we’re on the hunt for guys with a reasonable path to starter’s snaps, guys that have the skills to actually win the job and guys that have the talent to produce for us with that playing time.
Here are 20 players that have a chance to become difference-making starters in 2015.
1. Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles
Re-signing unrestricted free agent Jeremy Maclin figures to be a priority for the Eagles. That doesn’t mean the path for Jordan Matthews is blocked. Riley Cooper is a major liability on the field, ranking dead last among 110 qualifying WRs in Pro Football Focus’ grades. He posted a meager 55-577-3 line with a pathetic 2.9 YAC average despite playing on 81.9 percent of the snaps in Chip Kelly’s spread offense. Expect Matthews to beat out Cooper for the outside job in two-wide sets before moving into his customary slot role in three-wide formations. We saw what the talented Matthews is capable of this year, as he finished 26th among fantasy wideouts despite only playing on 64.9 percent of the snaps. He has serious upside in Kelly’s scheme.
2. Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers
It might be the end of an era in San Francisco. Frank Gore is a 32-year-old (in May) free agent who is facing an uncertain future with a new coaching regime taking over. The 49ers could try to squeeze another year of “old man value” out of him, but that could stunt the inevitable takeover of Carlos Hyde. Hyde was far from spectacular as a rookie, but flashed more than enough to make us think he can be a highly effective foundation back. He tied for eighth in the league in yards after contact per attempt (2.7) and also received a positive grade from PFF in pass protection. Hyde’s outlook is aided by the presence of Colin Kaepernick, as running threats at quarterback create extra running lanes. Hyde also profiles well in goal-line situations at 6’0/230.
3. Davante Adams, WR, Packers
It wouldn’t be a surprise if Randall Cobb walks in free agency. He’s going to be very expensive as an explosive, tough and versatile wideout that is still just 24 years old. One way GM Ted Thompson could rationalize letting Cobb go is by plugging in Davante Adams, who easily iced Jarrett Boykin for the No. 3 job this season and was comfortably featured by Aaron Rodgers when the matchups called for it. Adams’ skill set profiles nicely in the Cobb role, as he is a fine possession receiver but one that also has some YAC ability (as seen against the Cowboys in the Divisional Round). If Adams does end up with an every-down role, he’ll have fantasy WR2 appeal playing with Rodgers.
4. Martavis Bryant, WR, Steelers
Martavis Bryant, a 6-foot-4 rookie with 4.42 speed, didn’t play a single snap in the first six games of the season. The Steelers went 3-3 during that span and averaged 20.6 points per game. Then Bryant was finally given a shot in Week 7 and made an immediate impact in both his own box score and in the offense’s performance. In the next 10 games, the Steelers went 8-2 and their offense exploded to the tune of 31.2 points per game. And when the chips were down in the playoffs, Bryant played on 81.6 percent of the snaps compared to 65.8 percent for normal No. 2 WR Markus Wheaton. As we look to next year, it’s clear that Martavis is the no-brainer option to line up opposite Antonio Brown on the vast majority of snaps.
5. Jerick McKinnon, RB, Vikings
In 2015, Adrian Peterson will be coming off a lost season, will be 30 years old and is owed $12.75M in base salary. It’s not as crazy as it sounds to think the Vikings may want to just wash their hands of the whole situation. Meanwhile, plodder Matt Asiata is a restricted free agent. That leaves physical freak Jerick McKinnon, who averaged a gaudy 4.76 YPC as a rookie and was PFF’s No. 14 overall back in terms of strict rushing. If you want to understand more of what McKinnon is capable of athletically, check out this piece on SPARQ from Zach Whitman.
6. Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts
Reggie Wayne is a free agent and it’s painfully obvious he’s at the end of the line. Hakeem Nicks, sapped of explosion by all his lower-leg injuries, was a predictable disappointment as he played on a one-year “prove it” deal. That brings us to Donte Moncrief, who was wildly inconsistent as a rookie -- but that’s not surprising considering he’s just 21 years old and incredibly raw. It’s at least possible that the physical freak (6’2/221, 4.40 speed) will make a second-year leap and seize the vacancy opposite T.Y. Hilton. Obviously, we are going to want to target Andrew Luck’s weapons for a long, long time.
7. Khiry Robinson, RB, Saints
Sean Payton and the Saints do not prioritize the running back position. They prefer to fill the role by committee, using differently-skilled backs in different situations. So it’s hard to see them ponying up the cash to retain unrestricted free agent Mark Ingram even though he finally turned the corner this year. One reason they can let Ingram is walk is because they have Khiry Robinson, who runs like a median-income Chris Ivory but plays far better in the pass game. Khiry has averaged 4.50 YPC in his two-year career, with a top-tier 2.7 YAC/attempt average in 2014 and 2.6 YAC/attempt in 2013. He fits in tandem with Pierre Thomas.
8. Tyler Eifert, TE, Bengals
In Week 1, Tyler Eifert had three catches for 37 yards before leaving in the second quarter with an elbow injury. That injury ended up costing him his entire season. At 6’6/250 with wideout-like hands and unique athleticism, Eifert was considered by most a better tight end prospect than Zach Ertz in the 2013 draft. Eifert will be healthy for next season and will also get a big boost as free agent Jermaine Gresham is not expected back. The path to playing time is clear for a breakout in Year 3.
9. Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, Ravens
Prior to a season-ending foot injury sustained in December, Taliaferro put some good things on tape. He outplayed Bernard Pierce, picking up 4.29 yards per carry and scoring four touchdowns on just 68 carries. The Ravens will likely try to bring back free agent Justin Forsett, but he turns 30 years old in October and showed some signs of wearing down late in a 322-touch campaign. Pierce has been terrible for two years. That leaves Taliaferro, who the Ravens invested a fourth-round pick on in 2014, with a very plus opportunity.
10. Christine Michael, RB, Seahawks
Could the Seahawks really move on from the heart and soul of their team, Marshawn Lynch? It’s not as crazy as it sounds. He’ll be 29 in April, there was an ESPN report earlier this year that the team had “grown tired of his ways” and he’s an annual threat to hold out of training camp. Cutting Lynch would save the Seahawks $7M against the cap, room they could certainly use with the Russell Wilson mega-deal coming up. As for who’s up next, it’s Christine Michael. Although he’s played behind Robert Turbin this year, that’s due to Turbin’s role as the better third-down and change-of-pace option. Michael profiles as the front-line caliber feature back, one whose athletic explosiveness has drawn some light comparisons to Adrian Peterson.
11. Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons
Steven Jackson is a 32-year-old (in July) back that's averaged 3.60 YPC since joining the Falcons two years ago. He's not the answer and neither is free agent Jacquizz Rodgers. We know a Kyle Shanahan offense is going to run the rock successfully as evidenced by seasons that Steve Slaton, Alfred Morris, Isaiah Crowell and other backs have had under him. It's music to the ears of second-year man Devonta Freeman.
12. Joseph Randle, RB, Cowboys
DeMarco Murray’s market in free agency is uniquely intriguing. He’s coming off a rushing title, is 27 years old (in February) and was the foundation of a 12-4 Cowboys team. But he also has a long injury history, touched the ball an absurd 491 times this season and Dez Bryant is the free agency priority for Jerry Jones. If Murray ends up fleeing to greener pastures, the next man up on the Cowboys’ roster is Joseph Randle. The 2013 fifth-rounder isn’t overly exciting, but anyone getting carries for run-committed Scott Linehan behind this elite offensive line is worth watching.
13. Albert Wilson, WR, Chiefs
At just 5-foot-9 coming out of Georgia State last year, Albert Wilson went undrafted. But he drew some comps to Randall Cobb based on his running-back style frame, 4.43 speed and explosive lower-body. The Chiefs scooped him up and finally turned him loose over the final month, getting returns as he posted a 12-209-0 line during that span. We know that the Chiefs are absolutely desperate for talent at wideout and they could get even thinner if Dwayne Bowe won’t accept a pay cut. At worst, Wilson played his way into the No. 3 role next year. At best, he’d be a high-volume slot guy playing a ton of snaps for checkdown king Alex Smith.
14. Brock Osweiler, QB, Broncos
Obviously, Osweiler’s 2015 outlook wholly depends on Peyton Manning. Will the noodle-armed 39-year-old (in March) return for an 18th NFL season?, this time under Gary Kubiak? I’m guessing he will, but there’s at least a chance he doesn’t. That would leave Brock Osweiler, a 2012 second-round pick who has been at Manning’s side every day for the last three seasons, at the controls of a very talented offense. Although we haven’t seen anything real out of Osweiler in the regular season, we know he has both a plus arm and mobility. “I can tell you from sources inside the Broncos organization, this is a guy they feel very good about,” said NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. “They reviews internally on Brock Osweiler are high.”
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15. Zach Mettenberger, QB, Titans
The Titans won’t necessarily use the No. 2 overall pick on a quarterback. Both the front office and coaches legitimately seem high on Zach Mettenberger, who showed the kind of aggressiveness fantasy owners like to see while briefly flashing as a rookie. The Mett show averaged 7.88 yards per attempt, which would have ranked sixth in the league if he qualified.
16. John Brown, WR, Cardinals
Larry Fitzgerald currently carries a $23.6M cap number for 2015. Whether he returns to Arizona depends on if the two sides can agree on a restructure. John Brown can’t do the possession and red-zone things Fitzgerald can, but the blazing fast 2014 third-rounder flashed a ton of T.Y. Hilton-esque playmaking ability this season.
17. Theo Riddick, RB, Lions
The cap-needy Lions would only save $1.7M in space by cutting Joique Bell complement Reggie Bush. But they could very well make the move because Theo Riddick has the same pass-game friendly skill yet is younger and cheaper. We consistently saw Riddick jump off the screen when given chances this season, posting a 34-316-4 line through the air despite playing just 170 snaps.
18. Jeff Janis, WR, Packers
As noted under Davante Adams, the Packers may not want to pony up the cash to retain free agent Randall Cobb. That would leave the No. 3 job in the team’s three-wide base open. Janis at least measures the part as he smoked the 2014 Combine, going 6’3/219 with 4.42 speed and a 37 ½-inch vertical.
19. Stedman Bailey, WR, Rams
Even if free agent Kenny Britt returns to play for lone friend Jeff Fisher, the Rams would be wise to insert Stedman Bailey as a regular opposite a rehabbing Brian Quick. Bailey and the entire pass game would also get a boost if talent-maximizing Rob Chudzinski lands the offensive coordinator job.
20. Bryce Brown, RB, Bills
In May, the Bills gave up a conditional draft pick to acquire Bryce Brown. Although he got just 36 carries in 2014, perhaps that trade was in preparation for 2015. C.J. Spiller is a free agent and Fred Jackson is 34 years old (in February).
