MPG Projections: The Atlantic

Alas, the one-month long dead zone for basketball news is almost over. Soon camps will be starting up and you’ll be deluged by articles from beat writers trying to suck up to PR guys with articles about those ’15 pounds of muscle’ and other mostly pointless blather. It’s okay, though, you know you love it and soon enough we’ll be in the thick of draft season.

Speaking of drafting, our 2014 Draft Guide is already live. Projections and rankings are already locked and loaded, powered by numbers co-created by Dr. A and I, and we already have over 25 strategy articles published and counting. Here is a preview of the MPG projections, which will be loaded into the guide once camps are in full gear and updated all the way until the end.

Minutes per game is as important as any stat for projecting fantasy value and it’s also one of the hardest to project in a meaningful way at the beginning of the year. All of the nuance of past performance, pecking orders, injury risks, trade potential, in-season improvement and the like get balled up into one prediction – which in turn gets used in the final projections.

I use ranges so you can get a sense for how sensitive the projections are and because this is early, I may be less precise now than I’ll be in late October. There are going to be preseason signings, coaching decisions, injuries and all sorts of things that shift these projections around. The notes will also get more specific as we fine-tune the recommendations before you start to draft.

In the meantime, you can click here to follow me on Twitter and I’ll be picking up the pace on that account when I return from a European scouting trip aka my honeymoon.

ATLANTIC DIVISION

(33-37) – In the rotation, estimate of minutes at the end of the year

(0, 10-18) – 0 indicates player may not be in rotation at times, 10-18 indicates probable mpg at end of year)

(0, 5-10,*) - * indicates player may not make the roster

BROOKLYN NETS

Deron Williams (31-36) / Marquis Teague (0, 12-20) / Jorge Gutierrez (0, 8-16,*)

Jarrett Jack (26-32) / Alan Anderson (22-27) / Markel Brown (0, 8-16,*)

Joe Johnson (30-33) / Andrei Kirilenko (18-28) / Bojan Bogdanovic (15-25) / Sergey Karasev (0, 7-14)

Kevin Garnett (16-22) / Mirza Teletovic (22-30) / Cory Jefferson (0, 3-6,*)

Brook Lopez (28-31) / Mason Plumlee (24-30)

Notes: Once you strip away all of the expectations from last season, this team has a sort-of underdog appeal that could end up paying dividends for fantasy owners, especially in terms of sleepers in the frontcourt. Kevin Garnett’s corpse has no guarantee of making it through a full season – and Brook Lopez looks healthy but has history working against him – so a rag-tag crew of Mason Plumlee, Mirza Teletovic and maybe even Bojan Bogdanovic could be playing heavy minutes come February.

Andrei Kirilenko could just as easily fit in with either the former or the latter group. Joe Johnson, Jarrett Jack and Deron Williams are going to get as many minutes as they can handle in the literal sense. If everybody stays healthy this could be a fun team in a still-lame East, but one or two key injuries and they could be one of the worst non-Sixers team in the association.

BOSTON CELTICS

Rajon Rondo (34-37) / Marcus Smart (20-27, 25-35 post-Rondo trade) / Phil Pressey (0, 8-16,*)

Avery Bradley (30-34) / Marcus Thornton (16-22) / Chris Babb (0, 3-6,*)

Jeff Green (30-36) / Evan Turner (0, 15-25) / Gerald Wallace (0, 15-25) / James Young (0, 8-16) / Chris Johnson (0, 10-20,*)

Jared Sullinger (27-32) / Brandon Bass (25-30)

Kelly Olynyk (23-30) / Tyler Zeller (20-26) / Vitor Faverani (0, 8-16) / Joel Anthony (0, 7-14)

Notes: We know the Celtics fans certainly feel hamstrung by their redevelopment effort, but they’re not alone as management is having the hardest time dealing with the Rajon Rondo issue. With point guard depth not exactly tough to come by these days, privately it seems they don’t want to give him a big money deal. So they’ve dangled the guy for well over a year and they’ll continue to do so until the last moment, because the market is soft right now and they have time to wait things out.

Fantasy-wise, one may see visions of Marcus Smart running a bad team devoid of playmakers in a post-Rondo scenario, but his shooting issues and lack of clarity about when or even if Rondo will be traded make him undraftable in standard redraft leagues. Jeff Green gets another crack at significant fantasy value but until he shows us another wrinkle to his game there’s no reason to believe he’ll be a difference-making player. Down low, Kelly Olynyk has a better stat set than Jared Sullinger because he’s a better shooter, but all-in-all this is basically the same group that Brad Stevens loved to play the hot hand with.

NEW YORK KNICKS

Jose Calderon (27-31) / Iman Shumpert (24-29) / Pablo Prigioni (0, 15-20) / Shane Larkin (0, 12-24)

J.R. Smith (25-34) / Tim Hardaway Jr. (21-28)

Carmelo Anthony (34-38) / Travis Outlaw (0, 12-18) / Cleanthony Early (0, 12-20) / Thanasis Antetokounmpo (0, 5-10, *)

Andrea Bargnani (25-31) / Amare Stoudemire (16-24) / Quincy Acy (0, 18-26)

Samuel Dalembert (22-30) / Cole Aldrich (0, 10-16) / Jason Smith (0, 15-27)

Notes: If anything the Knicks should be entertaining this season, since Phil Jackson and James Dolan are good bets to get into some public drama and/or head on over to Burning Man together. This seems like a hilariously bad group to teach anything to, let alone the Triangle, with Andrea Bargnani not able to remember the score at the end of games, Samuel Dalembert having a terribly tough time turning on his alarm clock, and J.R. Smith exhausted in his quest to fit the entire Upper West Side of New York with new piping.

Still, one of the benefits of Phil’s first full season on the job is that the players have a real force to deal with and a new coach in Derek Fisher that will be aligned with Phil on most, if not all decisions. I think they’ll do better than most expect, and it certainly helps that Jose Calderon was brought in to help facilitate the offense. Iman Shumpert and Tim Hardaway Jr. are the guys to watch in deeper drafts or on the waiver wire. They both have holes in their game but in a lost year their young legs could get some late run. In particular, Shumpert is an injury-risk but he did not fit with Mike Woodson and his ability to make Triangle cuts to the hoop might go a long way toward a theoretical bounce-back campaign.

PHILADELPHIA SIXERS

Michael Carter-Williams (34-38) / Tony Wroten (25-30) / Casper Ware (0, 6-12) / Pierre Jackson (INJ)

Hollis Thompson (28-33) / Alexey Shved (22-27) / Jason Richardson (0, 13-20) / Jordan McRae (0, 7-12,*) / Elliot Williams (0, 8-15,*) / Sean Kilpatrick (0, 7-13,*)

K.J. McDaniels (25-32)

Nerlens Noel (27-32) / Brandon Davies (0, 14-24) / Jerami Grant (0, 10-22) / Jarvis Varnado (0, 5-12,*)

Henry Sims (23-28) / Arnett Moultrie (0, 12-24) / Joel Embiid (LATE-QUES)

Notes: I don’t know why but every time I review the Sixers I feel like going to town on $12 worth of McDonalds. Actually I do know why. They were perhaps the worst team of the modern era last season and this year their Opening Night roster is much, much worse. And this year opposing coaches will show highlights of last year’s Sixers team creeping on teams early on that had taken the night off. So yes, they are a threat to break all of the losers records and they are also a threat to be a fantasy treasure chest, though you won’t really know what you’re getting until it’s already bought.

MCW’s shoulder has kept him off the floor and that’s enough to wonder about his development, though he’ll be the undisputed focal point on offense. Nerlens Noel will play a lot and he’s in my top-80 players as of right now. Henry Sims would play a lot more if Noel could shoot, but Sims may have just enough range to make the arrangement work better than the projection I gave him. The bottom line is that the Sixers need guys that belong on NBA rosters and Sims profiles better in that regard than most of his teammates.

From there it’s a dumpster fire. Tony Wroten would seemingly be a candidate for more minutes than I gave him, but a backcourt of he and MCW will get zero respect from beyond the arc. That’s why I like Hollis Thompson to start at two-guard, and I like him better than Wroten as a late-round flier because Wroten’s percentages are awful. Alexey Shved is also very interesting in the Sixers’ up-tempo unit. Even though he was really bad last year, he isn’t fundamentally flawed shooting the ball and it sure seems like his confidence was shot in Minny. Being one of the better players in Philly could change that up, and I’m expecting the Sixers to play very small so volumes could be up across the board. He’s a last-round flier at best for now, though.

Finally, I may be burying whatever lede there can be here but K.J. McDaniels has all of the opportunity in the world as a healthy, young player that simply needs to show NBA-level maturity, play hard and not throw the ball away to approach starter’s minutes. Field goal percentage and threes will be a problem, but as a late-round flier I may like him better than Thompson simply because his athleticism in the Sixers’ system gives him a fighting chance at exceeding any reasonable projection.

TORONTO RAPTORS

Kyle Lowry (33-36) / Greivis Vasquez (22-26) / Will Cherry (0, 5-10,*)

DeMar DeRozan (36-38) / Lou Williams (22-26) / Landry Fields (0, 7-14)

Terrence Ross (25-30) / James Johnson (20-25) / Jordan Hamilton (0, 10-20)

Amir Johnson (26-29) / Patrick Patterson (23-28) / Tyler Hansbrough (0, 13-19) / Bruno Cabocio (0, 8-16)

Jonas Valanciunas (30-35) / Chuck Hayes (0, 10-14) / Greg Stiemsma (0, 10-14) / Lucas Nogueira (0, 5-10)

Notes: The Raptors bring back most of last year’s mostly mediocre squad, and additions of Lou Williams and James Johnson will help to keep the second unit breathing down the necks of the starters. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are the unquestioned leaders of this team and everything will revolve around them, and there is some ambiguity around whether or not Dwane Casey will finally force the ball into Jonas Valanciunas in the post. Amir Johnson and Patrick Patterson fit about as well as two position-battling players can in the fantasy sense, and if there is any breakout capability for Patterson we’ll see it sooner rather than later. Both are worth a look in the later rounds.