Monta's Manifesto
With every team in the league having played between 20 and 24 games heading into the weekend, we’re essentially at (or in some cases, just past) the quarter point of the 2014-15 NBA season.
But the period of time I want to discuss today isn’t 20 games or a quarter of a season. The period of time I’d like to talk about is two weeks.
In addition to being a phrase that’s seared into my head in a very specific way from countless viewings of Total Recall, two weeks is, in my opinion, a great stretch of time to consider when evaluating potential moves in fantasy leagues. It’s a big enough sample size to eliminate a weird two- or three-game snapshot you might get from only looking at the last week, but it’s also a small enough sample size to show something a little bit different than the overall season stats. And sometimes, that’s what we need – a hint of a trend to make us take action. Because whether that action ultimately proves to be a waste of time, or proves to be brilliant, the action isn’t happening unless we give ourselves a good reason to take it.
With all that in mind, and fully realizing that it might not have made any sense whatsoever, here’s a look at some recent two-week runs around the league:
Monta Ellis
Season Stats: 20.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 4.5 apg, 1.4 spg, 0.4 bpg, 1.0 3s, 46.8% FG
Last 2 Weeks: 23.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 4.0 apg, 1.8 spg, 0.6 bpg, 1.1 3s, 47.3% FG
Scoring isn’t everything in fantasy leagues, but it is what Monta Ellis has always done best. However, since being traded from Golden State to Milwaukee in 2011-12, he’s been just a slightly muted version of his dynamic scoring self: 17.6 ppg for the Bucks in 2011-12, 19.2 ppg in 2012-13 and 19.0 ppg in his first year in Dallas last season. None of that is bad, but it’s not the high-octane Ellis we’d become accustomed to during his final years with the Warriors (24.7 ppg in 2009-10 and 2010-11). Suddenly though, Monta Ellis, scoring machine, has returned. And it hasn’t just been the last two weeks – over his last 15 games, Ellis has posted 22.7 ppg. Now on pace to finish above 20 ppg for the first time since 2011-12, Ellis already has five 30-point games this season, the same number he had last season in 82 games.
So what to do with this info? You could certainly take it as a clear indication to sell high, and I won’t argue if you try to go that direction. However, given that the worst-case scenario is something around 19 ppg and 4 apg with good steals, I’d be inclined to hang onto Ellis and hope this is just the start of a long run scoring like his vintage self.
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Derrick Rose
Season Stats: 16.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 5.1 apg, 0.5 spg, 1.8 3s, 41.4 FG, 78.0 FT
Last 2 Weeks: 16.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 5.2 apg, 0.0 spg, 2.3 3s, 39.8 FG, 76.2 FT
The biggest takeaway from Rose’s last two weeks is that he has managed to stay on the court, playing in eight straight games heading into the weekend. The second biggest takeaway for me is that he doesn’t have a single steal in his last seven games, which underscores an important fact about Rose in 2014: This is a high-risk player who no longer offers the same potential for a big reward. Rose’s numbers so far this year are pretty close to what he posted in his 10 games last season (15.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 4.3 apg, 0.5 spg, 1.6 3s, 35.4 percent shooting), and at the moment, statistically speaking, he’s a souped-up version of Trey Burke. To be clear, I’m not saying that Rose is no longer capable of posting big numbers, but the way the Bulls are regulating his minutes (27 per game this season as opposed to 37 per game his first three seasons), and seem likely to continue doing so, I just don’t think he’s worth the headaches. So while his numbers lately aren’t anything exciting, I still think they present a clear opportunity to get Rose off your roster.
Andre Drummond
Season Stats: 11.3 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 0.8 spg, 1.7 bpg, 45.9 FG, 46.8 FT
Last 2 Weeks: 13.7 ppg, 12.3 rpg, 1.3 spg, 2.0 bpg, 48.8 FG, 48.3 FT
After a relatively slow start (8.3 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 0.4 spg, 1.6 bpg in his first 12 games), Drummond has fired off some monster lines of late, including a 26-point, 20-rebound game on Nov. 28, and a 27-point, 14-board, five-steal, four-block extravaganza last Wednesday. And when you consider the potential here, his recent run (13.7 ppg, 12.3 rpg the last two weeks) may just be the beginning. To refresh your memory (which I realize may not need refreshing), Drummond posted 15.2 ppg and 15.2 rpg in his final 15 games last year, and raised that to 18.4 ppg and 17.4 rpg over his final eight games last season. Finally finding his groove in Stan Van Gundy’s system, Drummond is set up for some explosive weeks in the months ahead.
Al Horford
Season Stats: 13.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 2.5 apg, 0.6 spg, 1.4 bpg. 53.6 FG, 80.8 FT
Last 2 Weeks: 12.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 2.5 apg, 0.5 spg, 1.8 bpg, 48.8 FG, 84.6 FT
Here’s a two-week trend where the numbers, unfortunately, aren’t getting better. As a Hawks fan I’d like to tell you that Horford is inevitably going to break out, but the reality of the situation is that he’s just not the go-to option in ATL these days. He is primarily a catch-and-shoot center who is at best the third option behind the more dynamic Paul Millsap and Jeff Teague (who both had the chance to establish themselves in Mike Budenholzer’s offense while Horford missed 53 games last year). Horford certainly isn’t useless, and I still think there’s some room to improve, but it’s no longer reasonable to expect the 17.4 ppg he posted in 2012-13 (under Larry Drew) or the 18.6 he posted last year before getting hurt. I still expect Horford be better than this as a rebounder, and think that’s a legitimate possibility, but it’s time to lower expectations for his scoring if you haven’t already.
Serge Ibaka
Season Stats: 14.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 0.3 spg, 2.2 bpg, 1.3 3s
Last 2 Weeks: 12.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 0.3 spg, 2.7 bpg, 0.7 3s
Improved 3-point shooting has obviously been a big story for Ibaka so far this year, but lately that positive trend has taken a notable turn in a not-so-happy direction. After attempting 4.1 treys through his first 16 games, Ibaka has dipped to 2.2 attempts (and 0.7 makes) in the six games since Russell Westbrook returned (with Kevin Durant being back for five of those). Serge will certainly have some big offensive outbursts going forward, and in theory actually benefits from defensive attention Westbrook and Durant will draw, but we all need to be prepared for the possibility that November (1.5 3s per game) was the high-water mark for Ibaka’s free-wheeling 3-point gunning days. The good news, though: something around 0.8 3s per game or so (a reasonable expectation going forward) is still a really nice bonus to add for a player who blocks nearly three shots per game.
Rudy Gay
Season Stats: 21.2 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 4.5 apg, 1.1 spg, 0.5 bpg, 0.9 3s
Last 2 Weeks: 21.4 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 5.8 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.5 bpg, 0.8 3s
His current shot-blocking numbers would be the worst of his career if they hold up, and at this rate his steals would be his lowest since his rookie year in 2006-07. But in the midst of a subpar defensive season, Rudy Gay has elevated his passing to a new level. Some of that has to do with the absence of DeMarcus Cousins (Rudy’s current two-week run of 5.8 apg directly coincides with the games Cousins has missed due to viral meningitis), but even before that, Gay was averaging 3.8 apg – which by itself would be a career-high. So while we can’t necessarily expect these current lofty assist totals to continue, it still looks like something around 4.0 apg is a distinct possibility going forward.
Enes Kanter
Season Stats: 13.6 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 0.3 spg, 0.5 bpg, 52.9 FG, 77.6 FT
Last 2 Weeks: 13.8 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 0.2 spg, 1.0 bpg, 49.3 FG, 80.0 FT
The clear knock on Kanter has been that he doesn’t get steals or block shots, and is really just a percentages, points and rebounds player – in other words, a pretty frustrating player to have on your roster. Over the last two weeks though, he has actually been doing a little bit of work defensively, with at least one block in four of his last five games, and two blocks in two of those games. To be totally honest, I don’t really expect him to sustain it, but I’ll be watching Kanter closely over the next week or two on the off chance that something has clicked. After all, Kanter clearly has the athleticism to make an impact defensively, and it’s at least possible that at age 22, that aspect of his game is still falling into place.
Throwback Box Score of the Week
Ten years ago next week (Dec. 18, 2004), a 26-year-old Shawn Marion uncorked 36 points, 14 boards, six steals, a block and four treys on the Wizards. For the season, Marion went on to average 19.4 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 2.0 spg, 1.5 bpg and 1.4 3s.
In Closing…
This is not the best play I saw all week, but I feel compelled to choose it because I don’t know when I’ll next get the chance to say ELFRIDEDMON.
