Matchups: Bucs @ Falcons
Thursday Night Football
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
Playing on a short week after last Sunday's run-game gashing by Cincinnati, Atlanta's defense has surrendered a league-high 944 total yards through two games. Particularly vulnerable on the ground, the Falcons have yielded 283 yards and an incredible five touchdowns on 68 carries (4.2 YPC) to enemy tailbacks. The conundrum owners of Bucs runners face is a possible timeshare with Doug Martin back from his knee injury. Bobby Rainey totaled 174 yards in last week's loss to St. Louis, putting Tampa's offense on his back for extended stretches. Coach Lovie Smith deemed Martin "our lead guy" before Week 2, but Rainey's performance may have been good enough to change minds. Considering the opponent, it seems likely that at least one of the Bucs' backs has a big Thursday night. I'd lean toward predicting it will be Martin based on reports he handled more first-team practice reps this week, but it could just as easily be Rainey. Both are high-risk, potentially high-reward flex plays. ... The Bucs-Falcons over-under is a modest 45 points. I think this game has some shootout potential, but would view Josh McCown as no better than a high-end QB2. Although McCown has gotten it done so far in the box score -- he's accounted for four all-purpose touchdowns and 395 total yards through two weeks -- his actual in-game performance has been worrisome. The 35-year-old journeyman has thrown three interceptions, absorbed four sacks, and fumbled twice. Of course, this Falcons defense is bad enough to make McCown look good. Atlanta is currently the only team in the NFL without a sack.
Thursday Update: It appears Rainey's monster Week 2 effort did, indeed, change minds. Despite reports Martin handled more first-team practice reps this week, Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times told Ross Tucker on Sirius XM Radio Thursday morning that Rainey will start at Atlanta. "The coaches really like him," Stroud said of Rainey. For now, at least, it appears Rainey has passed Martin on the Bucs' running back depth chart. In November of last season, Rainey hung a 30-163-2 rushing line on Falcons DC Mike Nolan's defense, adding two receptions for four yards and a third score. Rainey should be viewed as a strong RB2 play in this plus matchup. Martin is downgraded to an RB3 until further notice.
McCown's Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Vincent Jackson 16; Mike Evans 13; Brandon Myers 10; Rainey 5; Robert Herron 3; Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Chris Owusu, and Martin 2. ... Atlanta surrendered stat lines of 5-110 and 7-77-1 to Marques Colston and Brandin Cooks in Week 1, before allowing 3-84-1 to Mohamed Sanu last week. This is a good spot for V-Jax to get off the schneid after being held scoreless by the Panthers and Rams in Weeks 1 and 2. In two 2013 meetings with Falcons DC Mike Nolan's defense, V-Jax went 10-138-2 and 10-165-1. I own Jackson in a Dynasty league and will be firing him up in spite of his slow start. ... Evans is an interesting WR3 if you're willing to gamble a bit. The No. 7 pick in May's draft had a touchdown called back in Week 1 and in Week 2 efficiently secured all four of his targets for 49 yards. Progressing quickly, 21-year-old Evans seems to be on the verge of a blowup game. ... Myers has so far reeled in eight of his ten targets for 74 scoreless yards. Although he is always a low-upside option, Myers is worth a look for desperate TE1 streamers if Seferian-Jenkins (foot) is inactive for the second straight week.
Shake off Matt Ryan's predictably slow Week 2 game at Cincinnati and start him versus Tampa's depleted defense. Bucs MLB Mason Foster dislocated his shoulder in Week 2. DT Gerald McCoy fractured his hand. LE Adrian Clayborn (torn biceps) is on I.R. RE Michael Johnson has a high ankle sprain. The best news for Ryan, though, is LT Jake Matthews' return from a high ankle sprain. It's also worth noting that Ryan has historically been much better at home than on the road. His career completion rate is 66.7% at home compared to 61.1% away, with differences of 7.51 versus 6.87 in yards per attempt. He's thrown 51 interceptions in 49 road games, but just 29 picks in 47 home affairs. Ryan is a high-floor, high-upside QB1 versus Tampa. ... Ryan's Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Julio Jones 22; Roddy White and Harry Douglas 15; Levine Toilolo 9; Devin Hester 7; Devonta Freeman 6; Antone Smith 5; Steven Jackson 4; Jacquizz Rodgers 2. ... Dating back to last season, Julio has at least 99 yards and/or a touchdown in seven consecutive games. Julio's stat line over his last 16 games, including playoffs, is 107-1,520-10. Jones also gets the most favorable matchup in Atlanta's wideout corps, as he'll run most of his routes against struggling Bucs RCB Johnthan Banks. Jones has massive upside on Thursday night.
Roddy has shown up on the injury report with hamstring and knee ailments so far this season, but is often given routine veteran rest days by the Falcons' coaching staff. He's playing 96.5% of Atlanta's offensive snaps. LCB Alterraun Verner poses a tougher matchup for White than Banks will for Julio, but the Falcons should have lots of passing success as a team. I like White as a rock-solid WR2. Verner did have some trouble last week with Brian Quick and Kenny Britt. ... Slot man Douglas has six career touchdowns among 217 catches. He's getting volume in Atlanta's post-Tony Gonzalez attack, but is always a low-ceiling WR3 bet. ... Blocking TE Toilolo and No. 4 wideout Hester are not roster worthy in 12- or even 14-team leagues. ... The Buccaneers held Rams and Panthers tailbacks to a combined 189 yards and one touchdown on 55 carries (3.44 YPC) in Weeks 1-2, but lost several key front-seven components in the process, as alluded to above. I don't think Atlanta's offense will have much trouble moving the ball on Tampa Bay's defense, which should lead to scoring opportunities. Falcons lead back Jackson has settled in as a 12-13 touch-per-game back, but isn't a terrible bet for a goal-line plunge if you're desperate. Rodgers is Atlanta's primary change-of-pace runner. Freeman and Smith are rotating "breather" backs off the bench.
Score Prediction: Falcons 24, Bucs 20