Matchup: Seahawks @ Redskins
Monday Night Football
Seattle @ Washington
After compiling a 5:1 TD-to-INT ratio in Weeks 2-3 while eliciting national overreactions against the putrid Jaguars and Eagles defenses, Kirk Cousins tanked on Week 4 Thursday Night Football, committing five turnovers in a home game against the Giants. Perhaps most troubling, three of Cousins' four interceptions were thrown from a clean pocket. I didn't think the bottom would fall out on Cousins so fast, but I did know his historical tendency was to get worse the more he plays. It's been a recurring theme throughout his brief NFL career, and Cousins' decision making has been problematic going back to Michigan State. Just a streamer option going forward, Cousins is a low-end two-quarterback-league play against the Seahawks' imposing pass defense, which is as rested as it'll be all season coming off a bye. ... Cousins' target distribution since Robert Griffin III's Week 2 injury: Pierre Garcon 26; Niles Paul 23; Andre Roberts 16; DeSean Jackson 15; Ryan Grant 9; Roy Helu 8; Darrel Young and Logan Paulsen 5; Alfred Morris 3. ... Garcon will run most of his pass patterns against Seahawks RCB Byron Maxwell in this game, while Jackson faces off with LCB Richard Sherman. It really isn't a good setup for either Washington wideout, but I'd take my chances with Garcon before D-Jax. Considering the matchup and Cousins' most recent performance, Garcon and Jackson are shaky WR3 bets.
With Jordan Reed (hamstring) not expected to play according to Redskins beat writers, Paul is set up for primary tight end duties versus Seattle. The Seahawks are somewhat susceptible to tight ends, allowing five combined TDs to Antonio Gates, Julius Thomas, and Jacob Tamme in their last two games. It wouldn't be surprising if Paul led Washington in receiving on Monday night. ... Negative game flow is always a concern for Morris -- and Russell Wilson dumping points on Jim Haslett's toothless defense is a real possibility -- but I'd find it difficult to bench Washington's best means of ball movement. If Jay Gruden is smart, he'll keep riding Morris even if the Redskins fall behind. Unfortunately, Seattle's 2013 run defense was actually better on the road than at home, limiting opponents to 4.2 yards per carry at CenturyLink Field versus 3.7 elsewhere. This year, the Seahawks are allowing 2.8 YPC in road games and 2.7 YPC at home. So it's a very difficult matchup for Morris. Explore alternatives, but only if you have really, really good ones. ... Annually one of the top handcuffs in football, Helu is playing 37% of the Redskins’ snaps and has turned 15 carries into 80 yards (5.3 YPC) with a touchdown. He has ten receptions for 159 yards. There is some chance Helu will end up playing more than Morris on Monday night based on the mismatch of Seattle's offense versus Washington's defense. If you're willing to bet on game flow, Helu is worth a look as a desperation flex play in PPR leagues. He's also worth stashing in 14-team leagues as a likely every-down back if Morris went down.
The Skins hilariously ranked "No. 1 in the NFL in defense" after facing Chad Henne and Ryan Fitzpatrick in their first two games. In two weeks since, Haslett's defense has been skewered by Nick Foles and Eli Manning for a combined 55-of-80 passing (68.8%) for 625 yards (7.81 YPA), a 7:1 TD-to-INT ratio, and one sack absorbed. Eli added a rushing touchdown against Washington last week and should've had a fifth passing score if not for a blown review by the refs, costing Rueben Randle a TD. The Redskins have 11 sacks as a team. 10 came against Henne, and they have one in their other three games. Russell Wilson is a top-shelf QB1 in re-draft leagues. ... Wilson's Weeks 1-3 target distribution: Percy Harvin 17; Doug Baldwin 16; Jermaine Kearse and Marshawn Lynch 10; Zach Miller and Bryan Walters 7; Ricardo Lockette 5; Robert Turbin 3; Luke Willson 1. ... Although Harvin's target totals have underwhelmed, he's averaging seven touches per game and consistently being schemed into space by OC Darrell Bevell. This is a potential blowup spot for Harvin. DeAngelo Hall-less Washington is terrible throughout the secondary and none of the Redskins' linebackers can cover Harvin. Per Field Gulls' Zach Whitman, the Redskins' roster has the lowest combined SPARQ score in the NFL. They are quantifiably the least athletic team in the league.
Lightly targeted and lacking Harvin's explosiveness and run-game role, Baldwin and Kearse are crapshoot WR3s I tend to avoid most weeks. Because neither typically delivers many yards, they are essentially touchdown dependent. Considering the opponent, however, one of them will probably have a nice box score. I just don't pretend to know who it will be. More footballs are thrown in Baldwin's direction. Kearse is better in the red zone. ... Athletic sophomore TE Willson is worth a look for week-to-week streamers. Miller's ankle surgery will sideline him for at least the next two weeks, likely increasing Willson's usage. The Redskins incredibly coughed up four TDs to Giants tight ends in Week 4. Willson ran 4.51 with a 38-inch vertical and 10-foot-2 broad jump at his 2013 Pro Day. Those are wicked numbers for a 6-foot-5, 251-pound tight end. ... Washington held Arian Foster, Toby Gerhart, LeSean McCoy, and Rashad Jennings to 188 yards on 62 carries (3.03 YPC) in Weeks 1-4. They've allowed two rushing scores, one to Eli and the second to rookie backup RB Andre Williams in last Thursday night's blowout loss to the Giants. This isn't a great matchup on paper for Lynch, but it also projects as a game Seattle should control, allowing Beast Mode to pile up rushing attempts and scoring-position opportunities. There are only four running backs I'd take over Lynch from a rest-of-season standpoint: Le'Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, and DeMarco Murray.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 31, Redskins 20
